Antonio D'Arcangelis 
The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 3 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Week 3 NFL DFS Chalk: Christian McCaffrey (FD $17,500, DK $20,100)
Pivot: Sam Darnold (FD $15,000, DK $16,800)
Contrarian #1: D.J. Moore (FD $14,000, DK $15,900)
Contrarian #2: Brandin Cooks (FD $13,000, DK $15,000)
Contrarian #3: Panthers DST (DK $9,300)
Given how he’s used and the yardage props (136.5 rushing + receiving yards) that are posted for tonight, Christian McCaffrey has to be the chalk play, but Sam Darnold should probably be the closest pivot since he has his full complement of receiving weapons’ and the Panthers are 8-point favorites. It’s not going to be easy to get both Darnold and McCaffrey in lineups this week because of their inflated salaries, but it’s possible.
Panthers notes: The Panthers offense is mainly Darnold, McCaffrey and D.J. Moore, but Robby Anderson offers some upside at a discount. Stacking up the main options from these teams is near impossibility with any one of the Panthers corps at captain. With pricing so tight, we’re forced to look at kicker Zane Gonzalez, TE Dan Arnold and rookie WR Terrace Marshall, Jr. as the best fringe options. TE Ian Thomas is a punt play I might grab some shares of, and we could see more touches for rookie Chuba Hubbard if the game gets out of hand early. Brandon Zylstra scored a big TD last week and could be relevant tonight, but I’m more interested in the Panthers DST for the extra $1,600. They could be worth using at captain as well if that gets us both McCaffrey, Darnold and the main offensive weapon for the Texans.
Texans notes: Davis Mills is not even close to being ready for prime time, so I have little interest in jamming him into builds this week. The Texans projected team total is just 17.25 points, so the main focus of our lineups should be Brandin Cooks, bargain option Chris Conley (who saw his snap share rise up to 90 in Week 2 with the injuries to Danny Amendola and Nico Collins — both out tonight). I’m also comfortable facing Mark Ingram, since we’ll likely see more of both Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson on the short week and assuming a game script that forces Mills to pepper his RBs with dump-offs. Sure, the Texans could just feed Ingram and the other backs all day and find enough success to keep it close, but I just don’t see this happening too far into the second half. Other worthwhile options include TE Jordan Akins and former Bears WR Anthony Miller, who could be in the mix if he suits up tonight. The only sub-$1K guys I see who could contributing are Andre Roberts (who may not see as many snaps if Miller is active) and Rex Burkhead, but he’s probably only an option if one or more of the main Houston RBs sits this one out.
Week 3 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)
Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar. I’ve built one lineup so far that leaves $1K on the table, and I’m fine leaving up to about $2K out there if the narrative makes sense. It could get weird tonight, even with the tight pricing.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. Houston WRs Miller and Conley are about as cheap as I’ll go, even if both are viable in this particular showdown.
Now that we’ve established some Week 3 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
- Christian McCaffrey
- Sam Darnold
- D.J. Moore
- Brandin Cooks
- Robby Anderson
- Davis Mills
- Mark Ingram
- Panthers DST
- Phillip Lindsay
- Dan Arnold
- David Johnson
- Terrace Marshall, Jr.
- Chris Conley
- Jordan Akins
- Brandon Zylstra
- Zane Gonzalez
- Joey Slye
- Anthony Miller
- Ian Thomas
- Chuba Hubbard
- Texans DST
- Andre Roberts
- Rex Burkhead
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!
