It’s Week 3 of DFS QB Picks. Let’s all pray it’s less brutal than Week 2.
Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Darnold and Trevor Siemien were all KO’ed with various forms of injuries, with Roethlisberger done for the season, Brees is out for up to six weeks, Darnold is down until Week Five and Siemien is likely to be in dry dock for a hot minute.
I think Florida Evans put it best.
As usual, we’ll focus on the main slate of Sunday afternoon games with a brief nod to Sunday night’s Rams-Browns and Monday night’s Bears-Redskins contests.
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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers
1) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. MIA
DK ($6,500), FD ($8,400)
Dak Prescott is a legit QB1. There. Another thing I never suspect I’d type in 2019. Prescott has 447 completed air yards and six touchdown passes along with 81 yards rushing. Someone wants a new contract. He’s only made two bad throws in his first 62 attempts, so it’s all the more reason to run with Prescott against the most QB-friendly defense in Fantasy football.
Miami traded Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers on Monday, basically further declaring their secondary an open city for Prescott to march through. The Dolphins were 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers with Fitzpatrick, so I will buy into the unlikely and play Prescott in Cash Game formats, with the added bonus of at least 40 rushing yards and the prospect of a ground touchdown.
2) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. NO
DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)
Wilson is averaging a solid 20.4 Fantasy points per game. He’ll move beyond solid against the Saints, who are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. New Orleans is also 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers, a scary reality considering that 80% of Wilson’s 496 passing yards have come after the catch.
I think we’ve seen the peak of Wilson’s rushing. Don’t get it twisted: he can still hurt opponents on the ground, but the maturity as a passer makes his rushing attempts more precise than just a sheer desire to do so. That said, I’ll predict Wilson gives you a rushing TD on top of a big passing afternoon.
3) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. HOU
DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)
On a bad day, Rivers still threw for 293 yards. He’s not Gardner Minshew and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will throw more fear into the Texans secondary than the Jaguars’ middling receiving corps did. Rivers has never recorded a 300-yard game against the Texans, but he’s averaged 3.5 TD passes against them. He’s averaged 10.83 adjusted passing yards per attempt versus the Texans.
Rivers is thriving off oyards after completion, amassing 479 of his 626 yards via that route. Much of that is credited to Allen and running back Austin Ekeler, who have combined for 56,5% of Rivers’ 46 completions. Creating havoc after the catch will be a must since Rivers will have to account for where DE J.J. Watt lines up.
Rivers also tends to get more accurate as the game goes on, completing 65% of pass attempts 21-30 and 80% beyond 30 attempts. This game should be a slugfest, so I’d bet on Rivers going well north of 30 attempts.
4) Deshaun Watson, HOU at LAC
DK ($6,400), FD ($8,200)
So the Jaguars remembered how to play defense. Watson burned a host of Cash Gamers last week, but I’m counting on a rebound on Sunday. With rushing scores in each of his first two games, Watson’s running only enhances his value. Although he’s getting just 4.9 air yards per completion thus far, Watson has added nearly two yards to his yards after the catch per completion from last season..
Watson has six big plays in his first two games, with his receivers (DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V and Kenny Stills) each with a pair. The Chargers are middle of the pack when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers, but their 190 yards allowed will be tested — and passed — by Watson and the Texans on Sunday.
5) Jameis Winston, TB at NYG
DK ($5,400), FD ($7,300)
The Giants are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, giving up 329.5 yards and 2.5 TD passes per contest. Winston will have a healthier Mike Evans this week, and the progression from Week 1 to Week 2 is going to carry into Week 3.
If the Buccaneers want an effective Winston, they should keep him in single RB looks. His passer rating is 88.5 when in single sets compared to a 63.6 when lined up in shotgun. It’s a small sample, yes, yet again keep in mind that Week 3 will essentially feel like Week 1 for Evans. Winston’s under the radar right now, which is why the value and upside are a perfect Cash Game pairing.
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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers
1) Matthew Stafford, DET at PHI
DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900)
Philly is giving up 350 yards and three touchdown passes per game. There’s nothing to suggest anyone in that secondary is going to slow down Kenny Golladay. The Eagles have allowed eight completions of better than 20 yards and 368 yards after the catch. This screams Field Day for Stafford.
2) Tom Brady, NE vs. NYJ
DK ($6,600), FD ($7,800)
In eight of his last 10 meetings against the Jets, including the past six, Brady has thrown at least two touchdown passes. He averaged better than 10 yards per attempt in the two games against them last season. Brady’s come out of the gate with an average of 13.8 yards per completion, his highest since 2011. The yardage totals, however (he has just one 300-yard game versus the Jets since 2014), is the main reason I can’t suggest him for Cash Games.
3) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. DET
DK ($5,600), FD ($7,700)
Alshon Jeffery (calf) is unlikely. DeSean Jackson (groin) is out, so ownership may be low. Wentz is magic after halftime, completing 35 of 48 passes for 385 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a sharp contrast from going 18 of 34 for 159 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the first 30 minutes of play.
4) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. ATL
DK ($5,200), FD ($6,800)
Yes, T.Y. Hilton is getting his targets, but what I like about Brissett is how he’s utilizing TEs Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. The duo have caught 9 of 12 targets, with Ebron catching one of Brissett’s five touchdown passes. The Colts are averaging 5.5 yards per carry, which strongly suggests Brissett will have opportunities for downfield shots against the Falcons that he didn’t have in the first two games against the Chargers and Titans. He’s perhaps the best value play of the week.
5) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. BAL
DK ($7,600), FD ($9,200)
The Ravens are fifth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. They did give up 349 yards to Kyler Murray on Sunday, but kept him out of the end zone. I don’t suspect they’ll do the same against Mahomes, who threw for 278 of his 443 yards against Oakland in the second quarter. He looked somewhat ordinary outside of that insane 15-minute run. Mahomes is averaging 10.7 yards per completion and no matter what, he’s not going to remain on a 6,568-yard, 56-TD pass pace. There’s better value passers with better matchups in Week 3, so do know there’s some Buyer Beware that comes with Mahomes this week.
6) Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. LAR
DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)
Good Number: 112 Adjusted Yards per Atttempt+ means he’ll continue to stretch defenses now that Odell Beckham Jr. is in tune.
Bad Number: The Rams are third in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks.
7) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. DEN
DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900)
Good Number: Rodgers, who’s averaged 7.8 yards per attempt in his career, is not going to sit on his current average of 6.4 YPA much longer.
Bad Number: The Broncos are eighth in Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed just 189.5 passing yards per game.
8) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. CAR
DK ($5,800), FD ($7,200)
Good Number: Only one interception in a league-high 94 attempts, plus he’s averaging 12.2 yards per completion.
Bad Number: He’s had 11 poor throws and just one completion from them. The Panthers are 0-2, but their defense is still good enough to make Murray look more like a rookie than he has thus far.
9) Lamar Jackson, BAL at KC
DK ($7,000), FD ($8,500)
Good Number: He’s averaging 14.5 yards per completion. That’s not all Hollywood Brown, either.
Bad Number: It’s nitpicking with the start that he’s had, so the 175 air yards counts as a “negative.”
10) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. PIT
DK ($6,200), FD ($7,200)
Good Number: He’s getting 8.58 net yards per attempt with an under the radar receiving corps.
Bad Number: Wow, that 3.3 depth yards per target is something we’re going to have to discuss, Jimmy…
Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers
1) Derek Carr, OAK at MIN
DK ($4,900), FD ($6,700)
The Vikings are 21st in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. Weren’t they supposed to be elite? Most will have Carr off their charts, but I’ll play the exception.
2) Matt Ryan, ATL at IND
DK ($5,700), FD ($7,800)
Five interceptions lead the league. Even with the big Week 2 outings from Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, Ryan is still averaging a mere 5.6 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.
3) Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. WAS
DK ($5,100), FD ($6,800)
The numbers are putrid in his first two starts, but nothing says “improvement is coming” like facing the Redskins and their 31st ranked defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
4) Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. OAK
DK ($5,100), FD ($7,200)
As ugly a Week 2 that he had, keep in mind Cousins leads the league with a 14.9 yards per completion. Among the DFS Week 3 QB Picks, Cousins is near the top when it comes to “either/or.”
5) Mason Rudolph, PIT at SF
DK ($4,800), FD ($6,800)
If James Connor is limited, Rudolph will be north — well north — of 30 pass attempts. Look for Vance McDonald and James Washington to be the big winners in the new QB regime in Pittsburgh. The Niners are seventh in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers, which is why I’m not as optimistic about Rudolph as I am with any of the other DFS Week 3 QB Picks.
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