Adam Zibuda We have yet another strange slate in the NFL this week as we have a massive 14 game main slate on Sunday with no Thursday or Saturday games. This is not Covid-driven for once, and it is nice to see the NFL quickly adjusting their protocols as things rapidly evolve. Regardless, we enter the second to last week of the NFL season with still many pieces up in the air, but they will really start to fall into place after Sunday, so let’s get to it. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!
The QB’s
A. We had to be a bit creative at the quarterback position last week, and hopefully many of my loyal readers were able to profit off of the second QB that I wrote up for week 16, as Joe Burrow went bananas against the Ravens. Luckily for us, this week we do not need to mess around at this position as we have three elite arms at our disposal. The top of the list is the goat himself, Tom Brady ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD) who will be facing off against his familiar AFC East punching bag and one of the most pathetic franchises in professional sports, the New York Jets. This Jets defense ranks dead last in DVOA, 29th in pass DVOA, and dead last in run DVOA. In other words, they are the worst defense in the entire national football league, so we really do not need to overthink this one. This game currently only has the fourth highest total on the board due to the expected lack of offensive production from the Jets, so hopefully we are able to get TB12 at low ownership.
B. The second elite arm that we should look to get plenty of exposure to for week 17 of the NFL is Josh Allen ($8,000 DK / $8,800 FD). I was at the game last Sunday where Allen absolutely dismantled my Patriots defense, so I saw first hand that he is on his game heading into the final weeks of the regular season. If he can do that to the Pats, just imagine what we can expect from him against an Atlanta Falcons team that ranks second to last in DVOA, 25th in pass DVOA, and 29th in run DVOA. I also always love to take a look at the sack potential of each game to see when a quarterback will have plenty of time in the pocket, and you guessed it, Josh Allen has the lowest likelihood of being sacked or pressured of any signal caller in week 17. This is based on the Atlanta Falcons defensive line ranking dead last in the NFL, coupled with a Bills offensive line that is the third highest rated unit. Allen with time in the pocket is a scary thing, and even though we need to pay way up for him, that should only help to further lower his ownership in tournaments this week.
C. As I mentioned above, the Ravens secondary is on watch after what the Bengals did to them last Sunday, so why not ride that potential wave of fantasy goodness with Matthew Stafford ($7,100 DK / $7,600 FD) and the Los Angeles Rams. The Ravens do rank 28th in total DVOA, so clearly this is a very poor defensive unit, although they somehow rank 6th in DVOA against the pass. As I mentioned with Joe Burrow last week, we can really ignore that DVOA against the pass number and hope others see it and avoid this spot. It did not seem like JB cared that this Ravens defense is ranked 6th in DVOA against the pass. They are ranked second to last in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, and Stafford is another reliable arm that we can target at a slightly lower salary than the two aforementioned spend-up options.
The Stacks
A. One of the value plays that you absolutely had to have last week was Antonio Brown at $4.9K on DraftKings, and he is still firmly in play this week despite DK shooting his price up to $6.1K. That is still way too cheap with Godwin definitely out, and Evans potentially out, so this is a spot for us to keep an eye on as we head towards Sunday afternoon. If Evans clears the updated protocols, then both he and AB are excellent pairing options with Tom Brady, and we can even mix in either Ronald Jones or Ke’Shawn Vaughn. I will likely side with Vaughn here as he put up similar production to Jones last week with Fournette out, yet he is significantly cheaper and we will likely need that salary savings given that we are paying up at QB. Vaughn did only see seven carries and one target compared to Jones’ 20 carries and three targets though, so we should tread lightly and try to squeeze in Jones. As usual with a team facing the Jets, I will not be touching any of the bring backs, and would be more likely to get exposure to a third/fourth Bucs player in Rob Gronkowski if looking for additional exposure to this game.
B. The Buffalo Bills continue to have a running game that we can avoid, and that will really always be the case as long as this coaching staff is around and both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss are healthy. The receiving unit is returning this week as we should see Allen have Diggs, Sanders, and Davis as options for Sunday. Out-spoken anti-vaxxer Cole Beasley has also been activated so we now have quite the crowd. Diggs is the top option as usual, and I would look to pair him with Beasley, as Davis is now way overpriced given the bodies at wideout, and Sanders has been nothing short of a massive disappointment this season. Unlike the Jets, I do have some bring-back interest in the Falcons as Cordarrelle Patterson has slate-breaking upside for us at a price of $6.9K on DK. Gage is someone who is tough to trust, but the Falcons will likely be passing the ball on nearly every play as they try to keep pace with this Bills offense. This script will also benefit Kyle Pitts, who actually turned in a solid outing in week 16 and should be looking to end the season on a high note despite underachieving his expectations to date.
C. Of course with any lineup that has Matthew Stafford in it, and really with any DFS lineup in general, we should look to try to jam in the number one wide receiver in the league this season, Cooper Kupp. We will need some news to come across our screens so that we are able to find decent value to afford his $9.5K price tag, but he is obviously priority number one on this slate. Cam Akers is apparently an absolute machine, as he practiced in full and will be returning to the lineup this week after we expected him to miss the entire season. That really muddies the water of this backfield, making it one I will definitely be avoiding this week. Odell Beckham seems to have a firm grip on the WR2 spot for this Rams team, but I really view him and Van Jefferson as relatively interchangeable pieces for us to get exposure to. Tyler Higbee is a fine option at a reasonable $4K price point as well for week 17. As usual, the only two options we should be looking at from the Ravens are Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, as they look to get their team to bounce back after that rough outing against Cincinnati.
That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
