Week 16 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: 49ers at Titans

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 16 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 16 NFL DFS Chalk: Deebo Samuel (FD $14,500, DK $17,400)

Pivot: George Kittle (FD $13,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot #2: A.J. Brown (FD $12,000, DK $13,200)

Contrarian #1: Ryan Tannehill (FD $15,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Jimmy Garoppolo (FD $14,000, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #3 Brandon Aiyuk (FD $10,000, DK $12,000)

While it’s another pretty much wide open showdown in terms of CPT choice, Deebo Samuel maintains the edge over George Kittle for chalk, and it’s really hard to argue against either. Ryan Tannehill will get A.J. Brown back from IR for this one, so either of them could make sense as a contrarian play against a secondary that leaves much to be desired.

49ers notes: Samuel is the most explosive option for the 49ers, while Kittle is the most consistently productive with the highest floor over the past several weeks, but I’m still a big believer in Brandon Aiyuk, especially in a game that could have a little more offense than initially expected. Jeff Wilson has yet to settle into the role that Elijah Mitchell carved out before he injured his knee, and the Titans run defense is formidable enough that the Niners’ RBs are not a huge priority. I’m not against 2/10 GPP lineups featuring Jimmy Garoppolo at CPT and stacking with Kittle, Deebo and another SF piece against two Titans players.

Titans notes: I’d much rather stack 49ers offense than squeeze in Brown, but he’s got the most upside of any Titans player not named Tannehill. Dontrell Hilliard is a nice value since he could take the rock to the house, and I’m a little concerned that D’Onta Foreman‘s price exceeds that of Julio Jones, who i think could be the biggest beneficiary of Brown’s return and doesn’t have an injury designation despite leaving Week 15 early with a hamstring issue. Other value options include Geoff Swaim, Anthony Firkser and kicker Randy Bullock.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense, and explore every option.

Week 16 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.

Now that we’ve established some Week 16 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Deebo Samuel
2. George Kittle
3. A.J. Brown
4. Ryan Tannehill
5. Jimmy Garoppolo
6. Brandon Aiyuk
7. Julio Jones
8. D’Onta Foreman
9. Dontrell Hilliard
10. Jeff Wilson, Jr.
11. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
12. 49ers DST
13. Robbie Gould
14. Randy Bullock
15. Titans DST
16. Geoff Swaim
17. Anthony Firkser
18. Chester Rogers
19. Jauan Jennings
20. Jeremy McNichols
21. Kyle Juszczyk
22. JaMycal Hasty
23. Mycole Pruitt

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 15 action!