Week 16 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Dolphins at Saints

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in one of the final Week 16 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 16 NFL DFS Chalk: Alvin Kamara (FD $16,500, DK $18,300)

Pivot: Tua Tagovailoa (FD $15,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #1: Jalen Waddle (FD $13,000, DK $17,400)

Contrarian #2: Ian Book (FD $12,000, DK $13,500)

Contrarian #3: DeVante Parker (FD $10,500, DK $14,100)

DK Value Play: Mike Gesicki (FD $10,000, DK $9,600)

Alvin Kamara is the obvious chalk play for tonight’s showdown, but there are a few interesting pivots from both teams to consider, including Saints starting QB Ian Book, a largely unheralded rookie who gets the nod with Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill (COVID) unavailable.

Dolphins notes: Miami has a timeshare going on on at RB right now (starring both Duke Johnson and Myles Gaskin), so it’s much safer to look at the passing game with Tua Tagovailoa and the receivers. Both Jalen Waddle and DeVante Parker are available this week, as is TE Mike Gesicki, who offers decent value on both sites. While I have no preference among the RBs, I think Waddle and Gesicki are the priorities this week — though Parker is coming off his best fantasy performance (4-68-1 in Week 15 vs. NYJ) since Week 4 against the Colts. Kicker Jason Sanders and the Dolphins DST are also firmly in play

Saints notes: The untested Book is likely looking at a lower ownership than most QBs in this showdown, but since he’s an unknown commodity it’s a good idea to get some shares, even if it means generally fading the WRs — including Marquez Callaway and a questionable Tre’Quan Smith (hamstring). Kamara should be the focus of your builds this week but we could see more runs from veteran backup Mark Ingram as well. Kicker Brett Maher and the Saints DST are a slightly lesser priorities than their Miami counterparts.

Week 16 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Be afraid to take some risks.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

Now that we’ve established some Week 16 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Alvin Kamara
2. Jaylen Waddle
3. Tua Tagovailoa
4. DeVante Parker
5. Mike Gesicki
6. Ian Book
7. Myles Gaskin
8. Duke Johnson
9. Marquez Callaway
10. Dolphins DST
11. Tre’Quan Smith (if active)
12. Mark Ingram
13. Jason Sanders
14. Isaiah Ford
15. Brett Maher
16. Saints DST
17. Lil’Jordan Humphrey
18. Mack Hollins
19. Ty Montgomery
20. Nick Vannett
21. Adam Shaheen
22. Durham Smythe

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!