Antonio D'Arcangelis 
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Christmas Day showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 16 NFL DFS contests!
Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)
Chalk: Dalvin Cook (DK $18,000, FD $16,000)
Pivot: Alvin Kamara (DK $17,100, FD $15,000)
Contrarian #1: Drew Brees (DK $15,300, FD $14,500)
Contrarian #2: Adam Thielen (DK $12,900, FD $12,000)
FD/DK Value: Latavius Murray (DK $4,800 FLEX, FD $10,000), Irv Smith, Jr. (DK $5,200 FLEX, FD $7,500)
DK Punts: Marquez Callaway (DK $200 FLEX), Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($2,600)
Welcome to a special Christmas Day Showdown edition of the preview!
The chalk in this game will be mostly a battle of RBs, with Dalvin Cook having the edge based on his logged 2020 ceiling of 50 points and his matchup-proof reputation. The red one in the matchup rank will scare a few folks off, so I’m still buying in all formats – looking at about 50% ownership as the CPT on FD and slightly less than that on DK. Alvin Kamara could be a sneaky pivot, although Cook is the safer option in cash games. On DK, it will take some finagling to squeeze both Cook and Kamara in, but I’m going to try. Latavius Murray still gets his fair share of touches, too – and he’s facing his old team for you Narrative Street whizbangs.
With Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith out, we can look to the Saints WRs and TEs for value, paying particular attention to Emmanuel Sanders, Lil’Jordan Humphrey (I can’t tell you how long I’ve waited for a reason to type out his name) and Juwan Johnson. Keep any eye on the status of Marquez Callaway, who was just activated from IR. He could be a great value if active, which would slightly ding both Humphrey and Johnson.
I don’t mind Josh Hill’s minimum price in like 2/10 GPPs, and the right kicker and QB – be it a somewhat rusty Drew Brees or the always compelling Kirk Cousins could round out a team with plenty of upside.
Justin Jefferson has gone a couple of weeks without a receiving TD, so I think he’ll notch another one, but his price point makes Adam Thielen the better value with a similar ceiling, as he’s about $600 cheaper on DK.
I’ll have some shares of the Saints DST in some builds that focus on Cook/Kamara/Saints value WR/TE and avoid Cousins and the two big Minnesota WRs, but the Vikings, especially since the Vikings have allowed DSTs to score about two thirds more fantasy points than the average opposing DST over the last three weeks.
Week 16 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.
DO: Play Dalvin Cook and Kamara in GPPs, preferably together.
DON’T: Forget about the Saints DST in some builds. I’d shooting for about 35-40 percent GPP ownership.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
- Dalvin Cook
- Alvin Kamara
- Drew Brees
- Adam Thielen
- Justin Jefferson
- Kirk Cousins
- Latavius Murray
- Irv Smith, Jr.
- Emmanuel Sanders
- Jared Cook
- Saints DST (bump up three spots for GPPs)
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey
- Juwan Johnson
- Marquez Callaway (if active)
- Chad Beebe
- Will Lutz
- Dan Bailey
- Tyler Conklin
- Vikings DST
- Taysom Hill
- Josh Hill
- Adam Trautman
- Ameer Abdullah
