Week 15 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Chiefs at Chargers

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 15 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Week 15 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 15 NFL DFS Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (FD $17,000, DK $18,000)

Pivot: Tyreek Hill (FD $13,000, DK $17,100)

Pivot #2: Austin Ekeler (FD $14,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #1: Justin Herbert (FD $16,500, DK $16,200)

Contrarian #2: Keenan Allen (FD $12,000, DK $14,100)

Contrarian #3 Travis Kelce (FD $12,500, DK $12,900)

Both teams have been hit by some COVID issues in the past two weeks (along with the rest of the NFL and world), but Patrick Mahomes has a near-full complement of weapons (missing just Josh Gordon) and will be the chalk tonight for CPT on both sites. There’s a case to be made for stacking up 3-4 Chargers to save some salary and using Justin Herbert in the top slot, but Mahomes has the current edge on the WinDaily optimizer over Herbert and Tyreek Hill.

Chiefs notes: Speaking of Hill, it’s been a while since he had one of his signature 150-200 yard games, but this could be the spot where he or Travis Kelce breaks loose with a monster multi-TD performance. With the O/U at 52 and the Chiefs 3-point favorites on the road, we should expect some fireworks from both offenses with a few key defenders missing. We can pencil in Clyde Edwards-Helaire for a heavy workload against a defense that’s vulnerable vs. the run, and my exposure to him will be about 4:1 over that of Darrel Williams, who still gets touches in big spots. Byron Pringle is about half the price of Mecole Hardman despite both carrying about the same upside and a similarly low floor, so I prefer Pringle at $2,600 if we need to squeeze in an extra Chief player. But kicker Harrison Butker is a better value than both of those guys anyway.

Chargers notes: Aside from the obvious trio of Herbert, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, who is listed as questionable but expected to play at less than 100%, we can narrow our focus to the always risky but sometimes rewarding Mike Williams, TEs Jared Cook and Donald Parham, Jr., and WR Jared Guyton. I expect Joshua Palmer to see much fewer snaps this week with Allen on the field and much fewer than the team-leading seven targets he saw against the Giants assuming the role of WR1 for the Chargers. He’ll revert to WR4 but could still be in play in maybe 1/15 or 1/20 builds. If for some reason Ekeler ends up sitting, Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley would likely split the backfield touches. There’s already word that Ekeler could be facing less than a full workload, so stay tuned to the pre-game reports leading up to lock.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense, and explore every option.

Week 15 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.

Now that we’ve established some Week 15 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Justin Herbert
3. Tyreek Hill
4. Travis Kelce
5. Keenan Allen
6. Austin Ekeler
7. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
8. Mike Williams
9. Jared Cook
10. Darrel Williams
11. Jared Guyton
12. Harrison Butker
13. Byron Pringle
14. Mecole Hardman
15. Dustin Hopkins
16. Donald Parham, JR.
17. Justin Jackson
18. Joshua Kelley
19. Chargers DST
20. Chiefs DST
21. Joshua Palmer
22. Demarcus Robinson
23. Derrick Gore
24. Noah Gray

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 15 action!