jason mezrahi 
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 14 NFL DFS contests!
Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 14 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Lamar Jackson (DK $17,700, FD $17,000)
Pivot: Baker Mayfield (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)
Contrarian #1: Nick Chubb (DK $15,000, FD $14,500)
Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews (DK $13,200, FD $10,500)
DK Punts: Willie Snead IV ($8,700) and Harrison Bryant ($6,300)
DK Contrarian Punts: Devin Duvernay ($2,400) and Marvin Hall ($300)
Last season, it would have sounded a bit crazy to suggest that Baker Mayfield would be a viable pivot from Lamar Jackson in this matchup, but here we are. You’re probably going to need at least one of them in your lineup this week, and there’s a few ways we can even fit both.
Neither of these defenses has played up to their abilities the past couple of weeks, but both are capable of posting double-digit fantasy totals, so we’ll have to keep them in mind as we construct our showdown rosters. They haven’t met since Week 1, when the Ravens were dominant from the start – and if I had to lean toward one of them it would be the Ravens DST since the Browns DST will be without Denzel Ward (calf).
The Ravens have several position players of interest, with Mark Andrews and rookie J.K. Dobbins sporting the highest upside. Andrews had a pair of TDs in the first meeting with Cleveland, and is coming off a two-game absence due to COVID-19, while Dobbins has assumed a much larger workload with capable RB Gus Edwards and veteran Mark Ingram II taking a backseat in recent weeks.
I like the price and target total over the past four weeks (25) for Willie Snead IV, and while it’s hard to trust Marquise Brown, Hollywood is always a big play away from making a huge impact. Devin Duvernay is a longshot DFS play but a very talented rookie WR and playmaker and capable of filling out a winning GPP entry.
For the Browns, we need to prioritize Nick Chubb, who has TDs and 100+ rushing yards in three of his past four games (and 522 total yards over that four-game span as well) since returning from a knee injury. Kareem Hunt is an expensive but viable change-of-pace back who lacks the same upside unless the Browns are in a negative game script – a possibility we should plan for in some of our GPPs.
Receivers Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins are soaking up most of the targets, and both have ben productive, while Austin Hooper’s absence (doubtful with a neck injury) could mean more looks for explosive rookie TE Harrison Bryant. Opportunistic rookie wideout Donovan Peoples-Jones is also a viable option with plenty of big play ability, especially in play action. It’ll also be interesting to see if recently acquired deep threat Marvin Hall sees some action, as he’s a game-breaking value at $300/200 on DK if he catches even one long throw.
As always, we should consider Ravens K Justin Tucker, who has at least 8 DK points in nine of 12 games this season (and double-digit fantasy output in five of those games) and Cody Parkey, who has 31 DK points over his last three games.
Week 14 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.
DO: Include Nick Chubb somewhere. He’s been averaging about 100 yards and a TD every week since coming back, so I wouldn’t recommended fading him without using Kareem Hunt in a negative game script narrative build.
DON’T: Play anyone who is inactive. Pay attention to the breaking news and pivot as needed.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
- Lamar Jackson
- Baker Mayfield
- Nick Chubb
- Mark Andrews
- J.K. Dobbins
- Jarvis Landry
- Marquise Brown
- Rashard Higgins
- Willie Snead IV
- Kareem Hunt
- Ravens DST
- Justin Tucker
- Browns DST
- Cody Parkey
- Gus Edwards
- Donovan Peoples-Jones
- Harrison Bryant
- Mark Ingram II
- Devin Duvernay
- Marvin Hall
- David Njoku
- Miles Boykin
