Adam Zibuda 
We enter lucky week 13 in the NFL with still seemingly the entire league up for grabs. Is every team mediocre this season or is every team elite? I guess that depends on your own opinion but mine is that a swath of injuries has resulted in every team being mostly average, and the Patriots once again rising to the top of it all. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!
The QB’s
A. My first QB for GPPs this Sunday is Jalen Hurts ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD) who gets the pleasure of taking on the New York Jets. While the DFS sites definitely have not priced Hurts at a bargain for us, this is a matchup where he should be able to use his legs easily. When Hurts averages fewer than double digit rush attempts, his floor plummets to the single digits, but Hurts has yet to score below 16.7 DraftKings points when averaging at least double digit rush attempts, and his average is 20+. This Jets team is easily bottom three in the NFL in total DVOA, as well as DVOA against both the pass and the run. No matter what opposing teams want to do on a football field, the Jets just cannot stop it. While they surrender the most production to opposing runningbacks, Hurts essentially acts as this teams RB frequently. Hurts ownership should be depressed after he totally flopped last week and due to the fact that he comes into the week listed as questionable after splitting time with Minshew on the practice field all week. If Hurts is a full go, get some exposure to him in tournaments this weekend.
B. A team that is in a more obvious pass-heavy scenario than the Eagles is the Los Vegas Raider and their signal caller Derek Carr ($6,000 DK / $7,500 FD). Carr is priced significantly cheaper than Hurts across the industry, so if we are strapped for salary cap on Sunday we can certainly do worse than looking his way. He showed signs of a ceiling in primetime against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving as he lead his team to a win and dropped 24 DraftKings points. Prior to that however, he was pretty abysmal which is why we are still able to get him at this price point. As I mentioned, the Raiders draw a matchup that will be extremely pass-heavy, as the WFT rank 7th in DVOA against the rush but only 30th against the pass. Add to this the fact that the Raiders RB Josh Jacobs is literally always injured and is listed as questionable, and the Raiders might throw the ball on 80%+ of their plays, so this is a perfect spot for us to get a cheap arm that will be throwing all afternoon.
C. One of the four afternoon games that I, along with many playing DFS, will look to get plenty of exposure to is the Jacksonville Jaguars traveling to LA to take on the Rams. Obviously I am not on the Jags side of this game, so my quarterback target here is Matthew Stafford ($7,300 DK / $7,800 FD). Interestingly enough, with his price so similar on the two main sites, Stafford is actually the third most expensive QB option on DK but only the 6th on FanDuel, so he is an even stronger option on FD. Pricing aside, the Rams have a dream matchup on Sunday against the team ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass, and surprisingly only 14th in the league against the run. While the Rams somehow rank 7th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, that metric can be pretty noisy and is not one that we should put as much focus on as DVOA. The Rams are massive favorites in this spot, as they should be, and the Stafford to Kupp connection should be on full display.
The Stacks
A. To clear this up at the beginning, there is only one game that I will look to target a bring-back from in terms of my top three stacks for tournaments, and this of course, is not one of them. The Jets are an abysmal professional sports organization and have been for seemingly decades, and that will not be changing in week 13 of this NFL season. The Eagles have a running back that plays like he belongs on the Jets, so I will definitely be avoiding Miles Sanders who garnered serious ownership last week for some strange reason. Our options here are truly limited to DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, with a sprinkling of Quez Watkins or Jalen Reagor if you want to get cute and/or need to save some salary, because there are some solid spend-up options at both wideout and RB this Sunday.
B. This is the lone game where we do have a viable option for a game stack, but I will start with the Los Vegas Raiders. The Raiders may or may not have Josh Jacobs for this matchup, but as I mentioned I am more interested in Kenyan Drake and the passing game here regardless of the status of JJ. Of course if Jacobs sits out, Drake becomes one of the best value plays of the entire slate, but we do have a plethora of backs in prime spots at prime price tags for us to choose from this week. Hunter Renfrow has truly taken over this team, and with Darren Waller going down with an injury, that will only further boost Renfrow’s absolutely massive expected target share in this offense. We also have the value play of the week in Foster Moreau, as the sites did not have time to bump his price tag up after the Waller news and he sits at only $2.7K on DK. You can try to get cute and fade him in tournaments, but I will likely be looking to differentiate elsewhere as he is just such a great play at that price. Terry McLaurin and a newly healthy Logan Thomas are two great options on the other side of this game, and I do not hate getting exposure to Taylor Heinicke in my game stacks either as this game is one of the most appealing of the entire day from a fantasy perspective.
C. To close things out for week 13, we have an expected one-sided affair where I will be targeting the Rams side of the football and that will be all. Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson, and the receiving corps of this team are just flat out awful at football. The Rams however, are very good at football and are a well-coached team with Darrell Henderson and Cooper Kupp being our top two options. Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham have been syphoning Kupp’s volume lately, but that will hopefully just lead to lower ownership on Kupp for us. While the two aforementioned wideouts are certainly viable, Tyler Higbee should come in extremely low-owned due to the Foster Moreau chalk and he is my second favorite option from this team as a result. Get as much exposure as you want in your Rams stacks, as this team has the highest implied total of any team on the entire main slate Sunday afternoon.
That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
