Antonio D'Arcangelis 
The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 13 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 13 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.
Week 13 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Week 13 NFL DFS Chalk: Dak Prescott (FD $16,500, DK $17,700)
Value Pivot (FD): Taysom Hill (FD $7,000, DK $14,400)
Value Pivot #2 (DK): Mark Ingram (FD $12,000, DK $7,500)
Top Cowboys Pivot: CeeDee Lamb (FD $13,000, DK $15,000)
Contrarian #1: Tre’Quan Smith (FD $9,000, DK $8,400)
Contrarian #2: Tony Pollard (FD $12,000, DK $11,700)
Longshot Value Play (DK): Tony Jones (FD $10,000, DK $1,200)
Wowzer, have we got some wild pricing disparity on a couple of key Saints players tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings! Dak Prescott is the chalk on FD over value play Taysom Hill — who is slated to be the starting QB for the Saints. Prescott also has a slight edge on DK over Hill and Mark Ingram, who’s expected to serve as the lead back on TNF (Alvin Kamara will not be available to play, according to Ian Rapoport) after missing Week 12 against the Bills. There’s a lot of vlue combos to explore on both sites, so let’s get to the team notes!
Cowboys notes: CeeDee Lamb is back for the Cowboys, and that means less upside overall for what now qualifies as a risk/reward Michael Gallup, who could find it easier to get loose on a deep ball. Ezekiel Elliott is supposed to get a “serious load” but has fewer then 10 carries in each of his last two games and Tony Pollard is just as effective in terms of fantasy production when he gets the chance. For the discount, I’ll take Pollard in the majority of my GPP builds and fade Zeke in the interest of a contrarian approach. I also like Amari Cooper if he’s active tonight, but he could have a hard time playing at 100 percent in the wake of his bout with COVID, so that’s a seriously risky play even if he goes. I’ll probably have more shares of TE Dalton Schultz either way.
Saints notes: Trevor Siemian has finally given way to Hill, and while that could decrease the usage of Tre’Quan Smith in the red zone, it certainly bumps the importance of Ingram since they’ll likely be doing less throwing overall. I still like Smith tonight, and we can expect that Siemian could possibly make an appearance in this game if Hill totally flops, but on DK they’re both priced around the same. We can downgrade both Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris, and I expect more involvement from TEs Nick Vannett and Juwan Johnson, who combined for one target/catch last Thursday night. With Ingram back, a lot of folks will forget about Tony Jones, but he’s still a free square on DK at just $800 as a FLEX play. on DK, especially if we get word that Ingram has a setback in warmups and will be limited in any way.
Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.
Week 13 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.
Now that we’ve established some Week 13 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
- Dak Prescott
- Taysom Hill (FD, bump down a spot on DK)
- CeeDee Lamb
- Mark Ingram
- Tony Pollard
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Dalton Schultz
- Michael Gallup
- Tre’Quan Smith
- Amari Cooper (questionable)
- Cowboys DST
- Marquez Callaway
- Greg Zuerlein
- Deonte Harris
- Brett Maher
- Saints DST
- Tony Jones, Jr.
- Noah Brown
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey
- Nick Vannett
- Juwan Johnson
- Trevor Siemian (DK only)
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 13 action!
