Week 12 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Bills at Saints

The Thursday night showdown marks game three today, and we’ve got the picks to help you win in the Week 12 NFL DFS showdown contests on Thanksgiving night!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article. Week 12 NFL DFS is already underway, but tonight’s showdown should be fun!

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 12 NFL DFS Chalk: Josh Allen (FD $17,500, DK $18,300)

Pivot: Stefon Diggs (FD $13,000, DK $17,700)

Pivot #2: Tre’Quan Smith (FD $10,000, DK $8,700)

Contrarian #1: Cole Beasley (FD $10,500, DK $9,900)

Contrarian #2: Bills DST (DK $4,500)

We have the opportunity to shoot for the moon in this contest by picking a couple Saints with TD and PPR potential and using either obvious chalk Josh Allen or something as crazy as the Bills DST at captain. If we use the Bills DST, we only need one Saints player in what could be a really interesting contrarian build that leaves a bunch of money on the table. Either way, the options are wide open with how well Allen spreads it around and the Saints injury issues (Alvin Kamara is OUT & Mark Ingram is on the wrong side of questionable with knee swelling).

Bills notes: It’s hard to assess if any of the Bills RBs (Zach Moss, Devin Singletary and the recently relevant Matt Breida), but we know we’ll have Allen and Stefon Diggs contributing on offense. Throw in a few shares of the other capable receivers, including WRs Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, Gabriel Davis and TE Dawson Knox, and we’ve got a truly wide open range of possibilities. Kicker Tyler Bass remains one of the best and most productive legs in the league, so I’ll be using him in a few builds as well — especially in the ones with Allen at captain. My FLEX priorities are Diggs, Knox, Beasley and Moss.

Saints notes: If Ingram sits, rookie Tony Jones will be a free square at just $600 on DK, and his pass-catching abilities ensure he’ll be a part of the game plan even if Ingram suits up. We could also see some of special-teamer Dwayne Washington, Alex Armah and Ty Montgomery in the RB role if ingram is out. We’ve also got a conundrum at QB, where Trevor Siemian has been ineffective the past few weeks, leading to speculation that gadget play specialist Taysom Hill could see more snaps under center. In any event, it’s not that hard to fit Siemian and Jones, and it’s even easir to fit Hill and Jones. The WRs I like include red zone talent Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris, though we could see some plays form the shaky TE conglomerate (Juwan Johnson is probably the best option) in the wake of the MCL injury to Adam Trautman.

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

Week 12 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives. The Ingram news is crucial, so stay tuned.

Now that we’ve established some Week 12 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Josh Allen
2. Stefon Diggs
3. Tony Jones
4. Dawson Knox
5. Trevor Siemian
6. Cole Beasley
7. Zach Moss
8. Tre’Quan Smith
9. Bills DST
10. Emmanuel Sanders
11. Devin Singletary
12. Tyler Bass
13. Marquez Callaway
14. Taysom Hill
15. Deonte Harris
16. Matt Breida
17. Gabriel Davis
18. Juwan Johnson
19. Brett Maher
20. Saints DST
21. Alex Armah
22. Ty Montgomery

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 12 action!