Week 12 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Giants at Bucs

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 12 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 12 NFL DFS Chalk: Tom Brady (FD $17,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Daniel Jones (FD $15,000, DK $14,400)

Contrarian #1: Mike Evans (FD $13,000, DK $15,300)

Contrarian #2: Leonard Fournette (FD $11,500, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: Saquon Barkley (FD $12,000, DK $11,700)

Contrarian #3: Rob Gronkowski (FD $10,000, DK $9,300)

Tom Brady should end up being the chalk tonight, as he’s adept at spreading the ball around to his receivers. There’s no Antonio Brown again this week but the absence of safety Logan Ryan for the Giants could mean a massive bounce-back game from the GOAT, who seemed more than annoyed after last week’s loss to another NFC East opponent, the Washington Football Team.

Giants notes: Sterling Shepard will miss another game, which means an upgrade for rookie WR Kadarius Toney and the explosive Kenny Golladay, who only has one big game this season (Week 4 vs. NO: 6-116-0). Darius Slayton will also be in play for the Giants, but the biggest news is the likely return of Saquon Barkley, who is listed as questionable but is expected to see his first game action since Week 5. While the Giants may want to bring along Barkley’ slowly, he may be in line for a huge workload with Devontae Booker also questionable and seemingly at greater risk of missing the contest. Evan Engram may not be busy, but he’s relevant for his use in the red zone, where he’s scored in consecutive weeks and seeing a few targets per game. But QB Daniel Jones, Barkley and Golladay stand out as the primary targets in this showdown. There’s also the possibility that Elijah Penny sees actin if Booker is inactive and Barkley has an in-game setback.

Bucs notes: The usual suspects are in play for the Bucs, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and even Rob Gronkowski, who’s listed as questionable with a back injury that’s kept him out Since Week 3, but got in full practices on Thursday and Friday before taking a rest day on Saturday. Leonard Fournette remains the only safe RB option, since both Ronald Jones (one snap last week vs. Washington) and Giovani Bernard don’t real have meaty enough roles to consider in anything but large-field GPP builds that count on fluky narratives and injuries. I’d much rather look to a guy like Tyler Johnson (five targets last week), even though he’s likely to assume a smaller snap count and looks with Gronk back in the mix.

Week 12 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Feature many shares of the Giants DST, who will have its hands full with this Bucs offense.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Forget about Gronk, who could have a monster day against this Giants team.

Now that we’ve established some Week 12 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Tom Brady
2. Mike Evans
3. Chris Godwin
4. Daniel Jones
5. Saquon Barkley
6. Rob Gronkowski
7. Leonard Fournette
8. Kenny Golladay
9. Kadarius Toney
10. Bucs DST
11. Evan Engram
12. Ryan Succop
13. Darius Slayton
14. Graham Gano
15. Giants DST
16. Tyler Johnson
17. Kyle Rudolph
18. Giovani Bernard
19. Devontae Booker (if he plays)
20. Ronald Jones
21. Elijah Penny (if Booker sits)
22. Cameron Brate
23. Kaden Smith
24. Scotty Miller (IR, could be activated)
25. Collin Johnson

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!