Adam Zibuda The grind continues on as we enter week 11 of the NFL season. We have 12 games on tap for us to target on the main slate including the alleged game of the week that everyone will be looking to target. I will be avoiding Cowboys vs. Chiefs for the purposes of this article because I expect that to be the highest owned game by far. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!
The QB’s
A. My strategy of targeting whatever offense is facing the New York Jets has worked out well so far this season, although it will really be put to the test this week. Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500 DK / $7,000 FD) will be at the helm as the Dolphins take on the Jets in an AFC East toilet bowl. I was wondering how the Falcons had managed to secure four wins despite being a horrendous football team, and then realized half of those wins were against the two teams playing in this game. The Jets are ranked dead last in team DVOA and dead last in DVOA against the pass. They are also vulnerable against the run, as they rank second to last in run DVOA and dead last in DvP against opposing running backs. Any way that you look at this matchup, it is favorable for the Fins and I expect their offense to roll in this spot even though they have not been impressive at all thus far this season. This game will not be popular at all despite having a middling total and a low spread so we can take advantage of the low ownership in tournaments.
B. Another team that we should look to buy low on in terms of both ownership and pricing is the Cleveland Browns. Baker Mayfield ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD) is another extremely cheap quarterback option for us this Sunday with some upside due to the matchup. The Browns draw the hapless Detroit Lions, who unsurprisingly rank towards the bottom of the league in nearly every defensive metric. While this offensive/defensive line matchup ranks towards the middle of the pack in terms of sack potential, the Lions struggle to defend against both the pass and the run. The Browns are listed as double-digit favorites in this spot, and it is definitely a get-right opportunity after they were shellacked by the future super bowl champion New England Patriots last weekend. Target Baker and one or two of his weapons this weekend as a cheap and low-owned stack for GPPs.
C. With my first two quarterback options being on the more risky side of things, I will go a bit safer with my QB3 and target Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD). Burrow draws a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders who rank below average in DVOA against the pass, and about average against the run. This is not exactly a dream matchup from a pace and DVOA perspective, but we do have what is surprisingly a top three total of the entire main slate, along with a very low 1 point spread. If there is an under the radar game that could turn into a shootout, this is certainly it. We have a plethora of options on both sides of the ball that I will cover below, but JB should be able to bounce back and post 20+ fantasy points after his brutal single digit effort against the Browns last time out.
The Stacks
A. One of my favorite best ball targets due to his boom or bust nature was Davante Parker, but I have had the absolute worst injury luck this year. Anyway, the Dolphins will be without him and instead rely on pass-catchers like Jaylen Waddle, Albert Wilson, and Mike Gesicki. Waddle is the only wideout that I have interest in from this team, but I have seen Gesicki getting a ton of buzz around the DFS industry leading up to Sunday. He is priced up at $5.2K on DraftKings, which is a bit more than I usually like to spend at such a weak position, but he is nevertheless a very strong option due to his matchup against the Jets. Gaskin is another option for our Dolphins stacks as he is priced in the mid-tier and should go extremely overlooked. On the Jets side of the ball, you will not catch me looking for a run-back as Joe “Elite?” Flacco will be taking the reigns of this offense. This is one of the most Jet-like moves we will see and this franchise just continues to be the laughing stock of the NFL. You could try to get weird with a Corey Davis bring-back and hope that Flacco still has some elite in him, but only if you are MME-ing in a low-stakes tournament on Sunday.
B. Unfortunately we once again have a situation where we are targeting teams that have horrendous defensive units but also poor offensive units, which results in a one-sided team stack as opposed to correlated game stacks. The Browns will be the only team that I look to get exposure to in this game, as the Lions are down there with the Texans, Jets, and Jaguars in the dregs of the NFL. As for the Browns, they will be returning star RB Nick Chubb, with week 10 value lock smash play D’Ernest Johnson backing him up since Hunt remains out. We are not getting a discount on Chubb and it is always tricky targeting an RB coming back from injury, but he is certainly in play for tournaments. As far as the pass-catchers go, DPJ (Donovan Peoples-Jones) has been putting together the best season of his career, although that is not saying much, while Jarvis Landry continues to struggle mightily. Landry is still the top option to pair up with Baker, although DPJ and tight ends Austin Hooper/David Njoku are also potential options that will not cost much in terms of salary, and also should come in at extremely low ownership.
C. To close things out for week 11 of the NFL, we finally have a game where we can look to get exposure to both sides, as the Bengals vs. the Raiders is an ideal game stack environment. Kicking things off with the Cinci side of the house, we have Joe Mixon as a popular RB option as he is priced just a hair below the top tier and I think he is in an excellent spot for Sunday. We can also get exposure to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd as a bit of a three-headed monster of wideouts. C.J. Uzomah has shown glimpses of a ceiling at the tight end position, but I would try to pick my spots and limit exposure to two of these four receivers in any single lineup. On the Raiders side of the football, we have another solid RB option in Josh Jacobs, who is significantly cheaper than Mixon and also in a better situation given his team is at home in a near pick ’em game. Hunter Renfrow is the clear top dog in this offense, and we can look to Waller although he has not been performing anywhere near the level that he was last season and his price has not come down quite enough to fully reflect that.
That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
