jason mezrahi 
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 11 NFL DFS contests!
Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 11 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Kyler Murray (DK $19,500, FD $17,000)
Pivot: Russell Wilson (DK $17,700, FD $16,500)
Contrarian #1: DK Metcalf (DK $15,300, FD $13,500)
Contrarian #2: DeAndre Hopkins (DK $16,200, FD $13,500)
DK CPT Punt Options: Freddie Swain ($1,800) & Andy Isabella ($3,000)
There are some pricing discrepancies between FanDuel and DraftKings this week that we can take advantage of – in both cash games and tournaments – but the overriding theme this week will be squeezing in both QBs if we can. That’s a hard task, but I think that’s the best cash game strategy and a viable plan for GPPs.
The chalk on both sites is Kyler Murray, and a quick glance at his game logs tells us why he’s top dog emcee: he hasn’t scored fewer than 24.12 DK points in any game this season and he’s already racked up 2,375-17-8 passing and 604 rushing yards with 10 scores (!) on the ground. Only the Bengals offer a more favorable QB matchup than Seattle, which means he could have one of his highest game totals of the season.
Russell Wilson took a step back in Week 10 with just 12.92 DK points against the Rams, but his fantasy resume is just as impressive, with his previous lowest DK point total (24.9) coming in a Week 4 matchup against an upstart Miami defense that’s been mazing in 2020.
The biggest injury situations to monitor are in both backfields, but Arizona’s Chase Edmonds and Seattle’s Carlos Hyde (full practice participant on Tuesday) are my favorite RB options on both teams. If Chris Carson (foot) can go for the Seahawks that does complicate things a bit, but Hyde had a solid game vs. Arizona in Week 7, is absent an official injury designation heading into Thursday night and offers a pretty nice combination of blocking and receiving skills that will be needed in this game.
Carson’s availability won’t be determined until close to game time, but I’m fading him because foot injuries are easy to exacerbate, and we’ve got to take a stand somewhere. As for my dude Chase, I’m on him because I’m just not a huge fan of Kenyan Drake, regardless of if he’s 100 percent and even though he gets a pretty large snap share that often exceeds that of Edmonds. Drake’s one truly enormous game this season came against Dallas in Week 6 at the height of that team’s momentous misery.
Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (knee) is questionable but also expected to play, which slightly mars the option of punting the captain spot with super-cheap Freddie Swain for Seattle. Swain hauled in 3-37-0 on four targets last week and is an under-the-radar deep threat and high-leverage performer that Wilson looks for in the red zone. He’s definitely worth using in some GPPs, especially if Lockett is limited. Anda Isabella is the Arizona analog to Swain – a speedburner who could break the slate with a long TD reception.
Top WR options DeAndre Hopkins (now of “Hail Murray” fame) and DK Metcalf are also worthy of using in any place they can fit, and don’t sleep on Christian Kirk, who is a worthy second fiddle on a Cards team filled with talent.
Kickers, defenses and TEs could make their way into my lineups, but only a smattering, and not in the captain spot.
Week 11 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Count on this to be low-scoring. The projected total sits at 57 and we could easily see this be a 37-31 type of game.
DO: Get plenty of both sides in this game. I just don’t see either team dominating to the point where a 5-to-1 build makes a lot of sense.
DON’T: Forget about the “other” Cards receivers, including Larry Fitzgerald. The NFL legend had 8-62-0 against the Seahawks in Week 7, his best output of the season thus far.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
- Kyler Murray
- Russell Wilson
- DK Metcalf
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Christian Kirk
- Carlos Hyde (if Chris Carson is inactive)
- Chase Edmonds
- Tyler Lockett (questionable)
- Kenyan Drake
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Andy Isabella
- Chris Carson (risk-reward)
- David Moore (higher if Lockett limited)
- Freddie Swain (risky GPP)
- Greg Olsen
- Jason Myers
- Dan Arnold
- Zane Gonzalez
- Cards DST
- Seahawks DST
