Adam Zibuda Well we thought that week 8 was wild, but week 9 decided to say hold my beer. If you are still alive in survivor pools after last week then you probably either won or are very close to winning. We had a few double digit favorites forget to show up, and with my QB1 being Josh Allen last week, you can picture how my Sunday went. I am happy that we can turn the page to a new week here so let’s get to it. As usual I will be covering the top quarterbacks and players to stack with them for GPP contests across the NFL DFS industry, so any stack that I recommend is in play for both FanDuel and DraftKings. With that said, let’s get to the picks!
The QB’s
A. This week is the ultimate test of a “short memory for DFS”, as we have the option of going right back to the well with Josh Allen ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD). Allen saw a price drop of $300 on both DraftKings and FanDuel after that abysmal performance in a dream matchup in week nine. The football schedule makers rewarded the Bills with yet another cakewalk of a matchup against the New York Jets for week 10 of the NFL. The Jets rank dead last in DVOA, 30th in DVOA against the pass, but somehow slot in at 10th in DvP against the quarterback position. I tend to put much more emphasis on the DVOA numbers than I do with DvP, as the position-specific data can be very noisy. At the onset of DFS, the masses would be fading Allen this week due to his performance last week, but these days the field is way too sharp to do something like that. For that reason, I definitely do not expect Allen to fly under the radar, but for a second week in a row he is clearly the top option at the QB position.
B. If looking to diversify off of Allen, look no further than Dak Prescott ($6,900 DK / $8,100 FD). Dak also draws one of the best matchups that a quarterback can ask for, and this time the DvP numbers back that up as well. The Atlanta Falcons have been a team that we target with opposing offenses for years now, and 2021 is certainly no different. The ATL ranks second to last, just behind the Jets, in total DVOA, while also coming in at 28th in DVOA against the pass and 24th in DvP against opposing signal callers. This game also has the lowest sack potential, which uses the strength of the falcons defensive line compared to the strength of the Cowboys offensive line. This game ranks 28th, or dead last, of the 28 games in week 10 of the NFL when it comes to sack potential. In other words, Dak is expected to have more time in the pocket and be pressured the fewest number of times out of any other quarterback taking the field this week. If you give Dak time with the weapons at his disposal in this Cowboys offense, all I can say is look out.
C. Oddly enough, the first two quarterbacks in this segment were two that I also recommended for week 9. Given that, I will look to go off the board a bit for my QB3 for NFL GPPs by targeting Taylor Heinicke ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD). It is usually not a popular move to pay up at quarterback, so if you agree with that strategy then Heinicke is one of our top options. Taylor and the Washington Football Team offense will be taking on a formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, but this is a defense that forces the opponent to pass the ball. The Bucs rank fourth in the NFL in DVOA against the run, while “only” ranking 10th against the pass. Their overall DVOA is 9th, so make no mistake, this is not an easy matchup for Washington and that is why this is really a GPP-only option. The bright spot is that the Bucs only rank 26th in DvP against opposing quarterbacks, and that is due to the pass-heavy approach that they force other teams to adhere to. There is definitely a possibility that the WFT totally flop in this spot, but I expect the pass attempts to be plentiful which forces us to have some interest at these current price points across the DFS industry.
The Stacks
A. Even with questions surrounding the availability of one half of this backfield timeshare for the Bills, I still have little to no interest in rostering a Buffalo RB. As far as the receiving options go, Stefon Diggs continues to be our best option here, although he has obviously fallen far below expectations after his stellar season last year. Despite that, he is still able to hit a ceiling game on any given Sunday. Cole Beasley has strengthened his grip on the WR2 position for this team, however Emmanuel Sanders continues to be priced up higher across the DFS industry. Especially on DraftKings where a slot receiver like Beasley garners one full point per reception, as opposed to half a point on FanDuel, I will take the savings and fade Sanders. Maybe this is a bias that I have after rostering Sanders and being handed a 0, but Beasley seems like a much better option on FanDuel as well. Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney are not going to help you takedown a GPP unless they somehow grab two touchdowns, so I will keep my exposure to the two aforementioned wideouts. Even with Mike White back for the Jets, I will be avoiding this poorly coached team with a sub-18 point implied team total this week.
B. It is always more fun to write about a game where both sides of the football are intriguing as opposed to a game like the Bills vs. the Jets where only one team is viable. The Falcons and the Cowboys both have pieces that are extremely appealing from a DFS standpoint. Starting with the Boys, Ezekiel Elliott is a pass catching RB that is priced towards his all-time low as far as his DFS salary is concerned, and I do not expect him to be very popular so he is firmly in play. Michael Gallup will be returning to this pass catching squad that includes two stars in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Gallup will push Cedrick Wilson into irrelevance, and could also take some targets away from both Cooper and Lamb. All three of these guys are in play on Sunday, and tight end Dalton Schultz is a great option at what is a notoriously weak position. On the Falcons side, we have RB/WR/Flex player Cordarrelle Patterson who literally seems to have a floor of upper teens every time that he takes the field. The wideout options are pretty slim, but Russell Gage is potentially viable despite serving up a 0 two weeks ago. Obviously the best option outside of Patterson is rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, whose price continues to rise but is still not high enough, especially for this matchup.
C. To close things out we have a game stack where the team opposing our quarterback has a plethora of more appealing options than our quarterback does. On the WFT side of the ball, Terry McLaurin is the de factor option to plug in to nearly all Taylor Heinicke lineups, but a more under the radar play is J.D. McKissic. JDM should be on the field a ton on Sunday given that Washington is expected to trail this game and lose by 9 points. He is a pass catching RB for a reasonable price tag that can really rack up the DK points with his low average depth of target (ADOT) receptions. Ricky Seals-Jones has been a DFS darling due to his cheap price tag over the last few weeks, and he is still available for quite the discount off of the big names at his position. The Buccaneers have quite a few question marks regarding player availability going into the weekend, but any of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, or Cameron Brate/Rob Gronkowski are excellent options depending on who ends up taking the field.
That will do it for this week’s article. If I am not taking down the million this Sunday, then I hope that it is a member of our WDS fam! Please make sure to check out our projection model by clicking here, and if you have any questions about GPP strategy or the top stacks for the week, I will be in our expert chat in Discord leading up to Sunday afternoon. Feel free to shoot me a DM or @ me in chat! Lastly, do not forget to subscribe to the WinDaily YouTube channel and follow me on Twitter: @AThr0ughZ!
