Week 10 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Ravens at Dolphins

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 10 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 10 NFL DFS Chalk: Lamar Jackson (FD $17,500, DK $20,700)

Pivot: Mark Andrews (FD $13,000, DK $13,200)

Pivot #2: Marquise Brown (FD $13,500, DK $16,500)

Pivot #3: Jaylen Waddle (FD $12,000, DK $12,300)

Contrarian #1: DeVonta Freeman (FD $10,500, DK $9,900)

Contrarian #2: Mike Gesicki (FD $12,500, DK $11,100)

Oh, boy. We’ve finally gotten to an outrageous price point for our chalk captain, and on DK, the electric Lamar Jackson has eclipsed $20K. And when you consider that his passing yardage and rushing yardage props combine for right about 300 yards, it doesn’t seem all that silly. Jackson is actually from right nearby, in Pompano Beach. It’s only about a 35-minute drive away from Hard Rock Stadium, unless you get caught with faulty GPS in a less-than-desirable section of that city in a sketchy trailer park, which happened to me once. Most frightened I’ve ever been in my life. Anyway, we can find ways to get to Lamar at CPT, but there are some pivots to consider once we recognize that the Ravens don’t actually shut anybody down defensively.

Ravens notes: It probably won’t be the narrative we’ve seen a couple times before this season, where the Ravens need to come back from multiple TDs to notch a win, but I could see the offense starting off without a bang — giving the Dolphins (and their 26th worst defense against opposing fantasy RBs) healthy doses of DeVonta Freeman, who’s coming off his best game of 2021. Freeman is a good value and with Latavius Murray doubtful, we could see Le’Veon Bell get some carries as well. The receiving options have expanded as well, and while Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown are the two most obvious options, we have a healthy Rashod Bateman, a resurgent Devin Duvernay coming off a big Week 9, and god old Sammy Watkins, who’s expected to play. Bateman’s eight targets against the Vikings could be a sign of bigger things to come, so he’s the priority after Andrews and Brown. Of course, the Ravens DST and Justin Tucker are worth mixing into your builds as well.

Dolphins notes: We’re still not sure who’s starting at QB for the Dolphins, but that’s baked into the pricing because they’re not that far apart. I don’t have much interest in Tua Tagovailoa if he starts, but the minimal discount on Jacoby Brissett could mean I’ll use him in 2-3 out of 10 GPP builds. Myles Gaskin could see a few extra targets in the passing game, and while the Ravens run defense isn’t great, the Dolphins have had a rough time making holes for Gaskin in a traditional offensive sense. For that reason, I’m most enamored by the possibilities that exist with Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle, both dynamic players who can rack up catches and yardage. Remaining options include Mack Hollins and my favorite cheap option tonight — WR Preston Williams, who’s just $200 as a flex play and could be worth a look at captain in some contrarian builds — just like I planned for Jimmy Graham on MNF before the football gods yanked away my shot at glory.

Week 10 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Neglect Preston Williams. His price tag allows for lots of stacked builds and a shot at rostering Lamar with some other high-upside plays.

Now that we’ve established some Week 10 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Lamar Jackson
2. Mark Andrews
3. Marquise Brown
4. DeVonta Freeman
5. Jaylen Waddle
6. Mike Gesicki
7. Rashod Bateman
8. Myles Gaskin
9. Jacoby Brissett
10. Ravens DST
11. Preston Williams
12. Tua Tagovailoa (if active)
13. Justin Tucker
14. Sammy Watkins
15. Mack Hollins
16. Jason Sanders
17. Devin Duvernay
18. Le’Veon Bell
19. Dolphins DST
20. Albert Wilson
21. Salvon Ahmed
22. Patrick Ricard
23. Durham Smythe

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 9 action!