Week 10 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Rams at 49ers

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 10 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 10 NFL DFS Chalk: Cooper Kupp (FD $16,000, DK $18,000)

Pivot: Matthew Stafford (FD $17,000, DK $16,200)

Contrarian #1: Darrell Henderson (FD $12,000, DK $13,800)

Contrarian #2: Jimmy Garappolo (FD $14,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: Brandon Aiyuk (FD $7,500, DK $9,900)

Cooper Kupp appears to be the chalk at CPT on DK but Matthew Stafford currently holds the edge on FD tonight. Both are fine options but Stafford may be the safer of the two when considering how the 49ers could blanket Kupp and force Stafford to distribute among his other weapons.

Rams notes: Kupp, Stafford and Darrell Henderson are the top three options for the Rams, but we shouldn’t ignore the explosiveness of TE Tyler Higbee, WR Van Jefferson and the newly acquired Odell Beckham, Jr. Seeing a big game from OBJ may be a bit of a stretch, and he’s certainly not worth his inflated salary just yet, but ownership should be low. I really like the price on both Higbee and Jefferson, and we should monitor the status of Ben Skowronek, who’s questionable with a thigh injury but could start if he’s active. With Robert Woods (torn ACL) on the shelf it’s likely Jefferson will absorb a few more targets per game – which could translate into fantasy relevancy. Even before Woods went down, his targets over the past few weeks increased to 7-6-7, and I’m banking on increased production from him and Higbee tonight.

49ers notes: My favorite 49ers player, for the price, is actually Brandon Aiyuk, and his ownership should be significantly lower than we might expect because Deebo Samuel is off the injury report, rights along with Elijah Mitchell. Among Samuel and Mitchell I prefer Mitchell, because the way to attack the Rams is by running right at them, while Samuel may line up over Rams shutdown CB Jalen Ramsey a good percentage of the time tonight. The other player I’ll be clicking frequently, and probably much more frequently in my builds than QB Jimmy Garoppolo, is George Kittle, who returned last week with a 8-101-1 game and is crucial to their success tonight. A lot of my 49ers builds will just be Aiyuk and Kittle, with four Rams on the other side. We could also get word the 49ers will give more touches to Jeff Wilson, which could elevate him based on his very low price.

Week 10 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Forget about the kickers. They could play a role in a game that might involve some stalled drives just outside the red zone.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Neglect to see who’ active and check how much we should see OBJ. It could affect whether or not we consider Skowronek, who’s a solid value play if active.

Now that we’ve established some Week 10 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Cooper Kupp
2. Matthew Stafford
3. Darrell Henderson
4. Jimmy Garappolo
5. Brandon Aiyuk
6. Elijah Mitchell
7. Deebo Samuel
8. George Kittle
9. Tyler Higbee
10. Van Jefferson
11. Odell Beckham, Jr.
12. Rams DST
13. Jeff Wilson, Jr.
14. Matt Gay
15. Robbie Gould
16. Sony Michel
17. Kyle Jusczcyk
18. 49ers DST
19. Ben Skowronek
20. Ross Dwelley

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!