Week 1 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Cowboys at Bucs

The NFL DFS season begins with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 1 NFL DFS contests!

A Refresher on Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel calls them “Single-Game Contests,” but the gist is that we need to break down a single game and be aware of the narratives, opportunities and game theory techniques to help drive our success.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will give you leverage.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 1 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Tom Brady (FD $16,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Dak Prescott (FD $15,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #1: Mike Evans (FD $13,000, DK $13,800)

Contrarian #2: CeeDee Lamb (FD $10,000, DK $12,300)

Contrarian #3: Ronald Jones (FD $9,500, DK $7,500)

I’m leaning toward using the chalky Tom Brady as my MVP on FanDuel based on the lack of salary multiplier and his propensity to both spread it around and not really stop running up the score. I may find a different route on DraftKings.

Tampa Bay notes: Getting some combination of Brady, Evans and Jones is probably the safest way to approach this offense. If you’re going to play the Bucs DST, and that’s not a terrible strategy for a few GPPs then it’s probably important you use one or more Bucs RBs. Jones is technically the lead back, but Leonard Fournette is still an explosive player with sneaky value if Jones isn’t getting it done. Chris Godwin was nursing a hamstring injury, and he’s actually been left off the final injury report after being limited Tuesday, but I’m most interested in the matchup nightmare that Evans presents for the Cowboys. Aside from Brady, he has the biggest upside. If Godwin sits, we can consider Antonio Brown, who’s listed as questionable but has been trending up in recent weeks as someone finally gelling with the Bucs system and Brady.

Dallas notes: With the absence of OL Zack Martin due to COVID and the Buccaneers solid rush defense, I’m a little less interested in Ezekiel Elliott. I’ll prioritize Prescott/Lamb and either Michael Gallup (with Bucs safety Jordan Whitehead on the shelf for Week 1), but Amari Cooper remains in play for GPPs. Blake Jarwin offers some value at $5,200 on DK, but he’s more of a GPP play as well given how well the Bucs LBS defend that territory and the red zone, where he gets most of his looks.

Week 1 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Get cute with the sub $1K players in this one. Both offenses should be approaching full strength and unless we get breaking news close to lock, there’s not much in that range we can use.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use both kickers and defenses. There are some showdowns where using that strategy can help find the magic mix, but this Thursday night isn’t that night.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Tom Brady
2. Dak Prescott
3. Mike Evans
4. CeeDee Lamb
5. Ronald Jones
6. Chris Godwin
7. Michael Gallup
8. Ezekiel Elliott
9. Amari Cooper
10.  Bucs DST
11.  Antonio Brown
12.  Leonard Fournette
13.  Rob Gronkowski
14.  Blake Jarwin
15.  Giovani Bernard
16.  Tony Pollard
17.  O.J. Howard
18.  Ryan Succop
19.  Greg Zuerlein
20.  Cowboys DST
21.  Cameron Brate

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!