Wednesday 11/25 UCL DFS and Best Bet

This article focuses on 11/25 UCL Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel and DraftKings Daily Fantasy. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at large.

Wednesday 11/25 UCL Slate and DFS Gameplan

It’s time for the second half of Matchweek 4/6 of the Champion’s League Group Stages with a six game slate beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET.

As we already saw all of these teams square off a few weeks ago, there is a lot of existing data to work with.

Note: Projected starters are highlighted in bold. Goal odds of all potential starters are included, but if a player is not in the starting lineup, disregard his scoring odds.

Bayern Munich (-455)

Key Goal Scoring Odds: Robert Lewandowski (-400), Serge Gnabry (-130), Leroy Sane (-113), Thomas Muller (+104), Leon Goretzka (+145), Kingsley Coman (+160), Corentin Tolisso (+260)

The defending Champions are coming off a disappointing draw with Werder Bremen over the weekend in the Bundesliga. However, they are the joint biggest favorites on the slate hosting Red Bull Salzburg.

Robert Lewandowski has the highest goal scoring odds on the slate and should be the chalk on both sites.

Joshua Kimmich remains out, my assumption is Thomas Muller will be taking his set pieces for DraftKings purposes.

Serge Gnabry, Leroy Sane, Kingsley Coman, and Muller, are all secondary options. We will just have to see how the lineups shake out.

Atletico Madrid (-455)

Key Goal Scoring Odds: Luis Suarez (Goal odds not listed as presumably out with Covid-19), Joao Felix (+100), Diego Costa (+138), Angelo Correa (+160), Yannick Carrasco (+200), Marcus Llorente (+255)

That other team from Madrid comes in a very heavy favorite here at home against Lokomotiv Moscow. They come in with some momentum following a big win over Barcelona this past weekend in La Liga.

Luis Suarez is likely going sit out as he continues to recover from Covid-19, so DraftKings sportsbook did not list goal odds for him. I’d think this is a bump to Joao Felix, who will likely be flanked by Diego Costa and Yannick Carrasco, with Angel Correa an alternate option. I like Felix’s FanDuel price as compared to his hefty DraftKings salary.

As far as other plays, Koke and Kierian Trippier tend to dominate the set pieces. Marcus Llorente can always troll a goal.

Ajax (-335)

Key Scoring Odds: Dusan Tadic (+104), Lassina Traore (+104), Quincy Promes (+110), Zakaria Labyad (+128), Antony (+128), David Neres (+185)

Ajax is favored at home at lowly FC Midtjylland. They beat them 2-1 on the road the first time around and should be able to repeat here. At the time, Ajax was also down a few players due to Covid-19. Going back to the game stats, they were not quite as dominant as you might expect or desire for a -335 favorite.

Among the forwards, Dusan Tadic handles at least half the set pieces “Zakaria Labyad the rest” and would likely take any penalty kicks. Lassina Traore has been a monster in the Dutch league, the Eriedivisie, so his $7 price tag on FanDuel is laughable. The other two in the mix to start in the attack are David Neres, Labyad and Antony.

Real Madrid (+230) at Inter Milan (+110)

Key Scoring Odds: Romelu Lukaku (+102), Lautaro Martinez (+143), Andrea Pinamonti (+150), Alexis Sanchez (+160), Mariano Diaz (+200), Eden Hazard (+230), Ivan Perisic (+240), Arturo Vidal (+275), Vinicius Junior (+290), Marco Asensio (+310)

Real Madrid was able to beat Inter Milan the first time around 3-2 in Madrid. However, both Karim Benzema and Sergio Ramos will be out tomorrow. As a result, I like the Inter Milan side here to take care of business.

Beginning with Real Madrid, on FanDuel, Eden Hazard is back up to $14 so unplayable. Marco Ascensio is cheap but maybe for a reason. The other projected starter in this attack is “Mariano”. He is $6 on FanDuel, and has the highest goal scoring odds of the trio, so the preferred play.

Whichever two Real Madrid wingbacks start, they are in play, but I wouldn’t go wild with a stack here.

Turning to Inter Milan, Romelu Lukaku continues to be a beast in all competitions and is the top play in this game. Lautaro Martinez is the alternate scoring option. I’d focus my exposure there.

Atalanta (+360) at Liverpool (-152)

Key Goal Scoring Odds: Mohammed Salah (-124), Sadio Mane (+106), Diego Jota (+118), Divock Origi (+175), Duvan Zapata (+175), Robert Firmino (+185), Luis Muriel (+210), Joseph Illicic (+220), Alejandro Gomez (+250).

Atalanta’s defensive liabilities puts the forwards Mohammed Salah, Sadio Mane, Diego Jota, and Roberto Firmino in play as pivots off of some of the other high priced options.

Salah is just coming back from Covid-19, Mane has been pretty good, but Jota has been the story lately since joining the Reds.

The two high-flying wing defensemen Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold are expensive and I’ll pass.

Porto (+155) at Marseilles (+195)

Key Scoring Odds: Moussa Marega (+188), Dario Benedetto (+195), Florian Thauvin (+205), Luis Diaz (+240), Sergio Oliveira (+240), Joao Mario (+260), Dmitri Payet (+295)

The final game, Porto v. Marseilles, is the least interesting for either DFS or real life. A Moussa Marega one off here/there is fine, but this is not somewhere I would try to go overboard. Porto beat them up 3-0 the first time around and should definitely win at home but I would think more along the lines of 1-0.

UCL Best Bet

Bayern Munich and Inter Milan (+156 total) DraftKings Sportsbook – 1.75 Units*

DraftKings | FanDuel

The Betting Game Plan

Both Atletico Madrid and Ajax at their current odds are a bit too rich for my blood. You could look at Bayern Munich and Liverpool, but as mentioned above, I do like Inter Milan here. Without Real Madrid’s two core veterans, it seems like the rematch will be a very different game.

11/25 UCL FanDuel Rankings

Forward/Midfield

• 1. Robert Lewandowski – Bayern Munich – $24
• 2. Lassina Traore – Ajax – $7
• 3. Mariano – Real Madrid – $6
• 4. Luis Suarez – Atletico Madrid – $19 “If starting”
• 5. Joao Felix – Atletico Madrid – $18
• 6. Serge Gnabry – Bayern Munich – $18
• 7. Romelu Lukaku – Inter Milan – $19
• 8. Leroy Sane – Bayern Munich – $17
• 9. Diego Jota – Liverpool – $19
• 10. Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $22
• 11. Dusan Tadic – Ajax – $20
• 12. Zakaria Labyad – Ajax – $7
• 13. Yannick Carrasco – Atletico Madrid – $9
• 14. Diego Costa – Atletico Madrid – $14 “If starting”
• 15. Lautaro Martinez – Inter Milan – $18
• 16. Sadio Mane – Liverpool – $21
• 17. Kinglsey Coman – Bayern Munich – $20 “If starting”
• 18. Moussa Marega – Porto – $17
• 19. Thomas Muller – Bayern Munich – $16
• 20. Luiz Diaz – Porto – $14
• 21. Sergio Oliveira – Porto – $14

Defense “PUNT”

• 1. Fabinho – Liverpool – $8
• 2. Malang Sarr – Porto – $6
• 3. Rafael Toloi – Atalanta – $6
• 4. Alessandro Bastoni – Inter Milan – $7
• 5. Jordan Amavi – Marseille – $7

Goalies

1. Jan Oblak – Atletico Madrid – $12
2. Manuel Neuer – Bayern Munich – $14
3. Agustin Marchesin – Porto – $10

11/25 UCL DraftKings Rankings

Forward

1. Robert Lewandowski – Bayern Munich – $11,900
2. Luis Suarez – Atletico Madrid – $8,200 “If starting”
3. Romelu Lukaku – Inter Milan – $8,000
4. Joao Felix – Atletico Madrid – $10,300
5. Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $9,300
6. Lautaro Martinez – Inter Milan – $7,600
7. Diego Costa – Atletico Madrid – $5,900
8. Diego Jota – Liverpool – $9,700
9. Dusan Tadic – Ajax – $10,800
10. Kinglsey Coman – Bayern Munich – $8,600 “If starting”
11. Leroy Sane – Bayern Munich – $7,800
12. Sadio Mane – Liverpool – $8,800
13. Thomas Muller – Bayern Munich – $7,500
14. Antony – Ajax – $7,400 “if starting”
15. Lassina Traore – Ajax – $7,300
16. David Neres – Ajax – $5,700
17. Quincy Promes – Ajax – $6,700 “if starting”
18. Moussa Marega – Porto – $6,900
19. Duvan Zapata – Atalanta – $8,100
20. Marco Asensio – Real Madrid – $6,200

Midfield “Only non forward eligible players listed, aside from Gnabry and punts, I’d focus with the dual eligible players”

• 1. Serge Gnabry – Bayern Munich – $7,600
• 2. Christian Eriksen – Inter Milan – $6,300 “if starting”
• 3. Leon Goretzka – Bayern Munich – $6,400
• 4. Arturo Vidal – Inter Milan – $3,500
• 5. Nicolo Barela – Inter Milan – $4,400

Defense “PUNT”

• 1. Milan Skriniar – Inter Milan – $2,500
• 2. David Alaba – Bayern Munich – $3,000
• 3. Jerome Boateng – Bayern Munich – $3,100
• 4. Jose Gimenez – Atletico Madrid – $5,200
• 5. Boubacar Kamara – Marseille – $2,500
• 6. Alessandro Bastoni – Inter Milan – $3,200

Goalies

1. Manuel Neuer – Bayern Munich – $5,900
2. Jan Oblak – Atletico Madrid – $5,700
3. Agustin Marchesin – Porto – $4,500

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