David Stowe 
Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 7 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s GPP Play article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24
***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
Cash running backs are about as straight forward as it gets for me this week. We have a few prime matchups that are where I think you should start your cash builds. With so many bye weeks your core of running backs should not vary all that much, just stick with the obvious plays and make your adjustments with wide receivers. Gpp’s we have a few pivots in pretty good spots but as you already know, this is a rough week so tread lightly.
GPP:
Aaron Jones, $7,500DK/$8,500FD: 4-6%
Matt LaFleur is so frustrating when it comes to how he utilizes his running backs but this is a fantastic position for Aaron Jones and we get to roster him at less than 6%. This is impossible to ignore in a week where there are so many injuries and bye weeks. Washington’s defense has been a huge letdown this season being dead last in points per game allowed (31.0) and bottom seven in nearly every defensive statistical category. The question is not whether or not Jones can produce, the question is will Matt LaFleur just go with what works or will he try to be the “smartest coach on the field” as we have seen the snap share go from 70-30 in the first two weeks to 60-40 in two of the last three weeks.
Joe Mixon $6,500DK/$7,200FD: 5-7%
Last week the Ravens looked as if they got a little bit of their mojo back defensively but I am willing to chalk that up as the Chargers being historically bad when it comes to traveling to the east coast. On a re-watch of that game, I did not see anything from Baltimore that made me think they have turned the corner so until I see it with any consistency, targeting pass-catching backs against the Ravens is still a preferred play for me. Mixon was used heavily in that role against the Packers last week, bringing in five of six targets for 59 yards and a TD to go along with 18 carries while still being less than 100%. Mixon’s volume is second only behind Derrick Henry on the season, facing the 28th ranked DVOA when it comes to pass-catching backs, and is going completely ignored being projected between 5-7% rostered on the day making this an elite target for GPP’s on the day.
James Connor, $5,600DK/$6,500FD: 3-5%
With everyone gravitating towards Chase Edmonds in what should be a prime spot against the basement dwelling Texans, James Connor saw a 55% snap share compared to Edmonds last week, has a higher rushing prop, and has the best odds to score (-140) of the game. With the Cardinals being an obscene 18.5 point favorite Connor should see his largest workload by far this week and he is being projected under 4% on the slate.
Also Consider: Antonio Gibson (sub 4%, monitor the injury news), JD McKissic (sub 3%, DK only),
WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24
Cash:
Derrick Henry, $9,200DK/$11,000FD, :
I feel like I am copying and pasting this every week but Henry finds himself in another smash spot against a team that is susceptible against the run. You will here me, Ghost, and Stix talk about Henry ad nauseum this week and every week going forward so I will not waste your time repeating the same thing. Fade him at your own peril. All hail the King.
Darrell Henderson, $6,600DK/$8,000FD :
When this season started there were workload concerns and whether or not Henderson could handle the burden of being a number one. After 6 weeks of action, we have a large enough sample to say clearly that he can handle the role. Henderson has had no less than 16 touches in all five of the games he has played and scored no less than 15.7 DK points to date. Now he gets to face the 7th worst defense in terms of DVOA against running backs on the ground and the worst by a wide margin through the air. Oh yeah, and for added benefit, Stafford will be going into this game wanting to beat the breaks off of the Lions. The fans in Detroit spent the last decade blaming their poor performance on Stafford and he is going to go out of his way to rub it in. This is likely going to get out of hand in a hurry and Henderson will have plenty of time to run it down their throat in the second half of the game.
Chuba Hubbard, $6,100DK/$7,300FD :
With CMC suddenly finding his way to the IR last week (NFL needs to get a handle on coaches withholding information but that’s another story) this is Chuba’s backfield until further notice and boy does he get a nice week seven opponent in the New York Giants. With a 65% snap share in each of the last two weeks and 16 carries to go along with 3 targets even in a negative game script last week he presents a solid floor at 6.1k with a 95.5 total yards prop and the best odds to score in the game.
Also Consider: Darrel Williams, Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, D’Andre Swift
It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
