David Stowe 
We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 5 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Adam’s Game x Game article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10
***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
GPP:
Aaron Jones, Packers, $7,900DK/$8,400FD: (6.5%)
With King Henry being the de facto top option, James Robinson in a potential smash spot against the Titans, Swift against the Vikings, and possibly Tony Pollard becoming the huge chalk if Zeke misses time Aaron Jones’s beautiful matchup against the Bengals appears to be going overlooked completely and is sitting between 6-7% right now with the potential to go even lower depending on injury news in a few spots. Jones struggled last week but the Steelers defensive from is still solid and they play pass catching backs well enough to limit his upside last week. The Bengals though….Well they allowed 14 catches on 19 targets for 102 yards to Najee Harris and just gave up two TD’s on 78 yards to the Jags last week. This scenario screams GPP target and Jones will likely be my GPP pivot from Henry.
Nick Chubb, Browns, $6,700DK/$7,500FD: (4.5%)
I refuse to be the guy who misses the Chubb ceiling game at sub 5% ownership. The last two weeks his volume has been there with 22 touches in each contest but he has missed the endzone in each game so for a player like him it is a disappointment. With no Landry the volume should stay where it is, his talent is undeniable and he has not gone 3 games without a score since Week 9 of 2019. The Chargers also happen to be the worst team in terms of rushing yards allowed on the slate (yes, worse than Houston) allowing 139.5 yards, and are 25th in rushing DVOA. Something has to give here.
Damien Harris, Patriots,: $5,500DK/$6,500FD: (9.1%) (with 4 O-line out he is no longer cash viable)
Also Consider: Austin Ekeler (Cleveland has a ton of potential defensive injuries), Ezekiel Elliott
WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10
Cash:
Derrick Henry, Titans, $9,000DK/$10,400FD: (24%)
Here we go again. Henry is in yet another smash spot and should be a staple in your cash game. I’m not going to waste my time or yours going through the why of this one. Henry against the Jags, lock it in your cash contests, and call it a day.
James Robinson, Jaguars, $6,000DK/$7,400FD : (20%)
I am a little nervous here but it appears that Urban Meyer has learned that you should not drop your rookie QB back 50 times a game and that having a beast like J-Rob carrying the load is a good thing. The great thing too as the Titans might have the worst defense in the NFL this year. No doubt they have the worst secondary. In each of the last two games, Robinson has gotten at least 20 touches and has been targeted no less than twice in any game this season while averaging 5 yards per carry. The Titan’s rushing yards allowed is a bit deceiving as the Jets can’t run if their life depended on it and Indi chose week three to abandon their run game. I might not get here personally because I am going to have a lot of Marvin Jones (Titans have allowed more 30+ yard passes than any team in the NFL), but if you are playing cash games and not using Marvin he needs to be in strong consideration.
D’Andre Swift, Lions: $6,100DK/$6,900FD: (18%)
If you are just checking the box score from last week you would assume that something happened with Swift as he finished the day with only eight carries and four catches on the day. But the truth is the Lions were the unfortunate team that got to play the Bears without Nagy calling the shots and they played an inspired football game. Swift actually saw a 73% snap share, the highest on the season. I fully expect him to get back to his 12-14 carries and 6-8 targets against a Vikings defense that has been hemorrhaging points to running backs. Chubb and Hunt combined for 169 yards on the ground last week, 88 to Carson and Collins, and 127 yards to Joe Mixon. They also have allowed one rushing TD in each game this year. The Lions are bad, no doubt. But, they are surprisingly competitive for those who have not had a chance to see them in action and Goff has looked much better than I expected so kudos to him for proving us all wrong this season. With this being a 50 total game with Vikings as 10 point favorites Swifty is going to get all of the work he can handle catching out of the backfield Sunday, making him PPR gold for your cash games.
Alexander Mattison, Vikings, $5,500DK/$6,500: 20%+(Estimate)
Verify Dalvin Cook is out before locking him in but once you do you lock Mattison into your cash games and you do not think about it. Detroit has not been able to slow any running back this season much less stop.
Damien Williams, Bears, $5,600DK/$5,800FD: (14%)
Sucks that DraftKings priced him up but Damien throughout his career has produced whenever given an opportunity to start averaging over 15 points in PPR formats. In addition to that when trailing his yards per carry (4.7), yards per target (6.5), and catch rate (83.7%) all see an uptick when trailing and the Raiders should be able to take control of this contest as 5.5 point favorites. It is in no way sexy, but for cash games, the safe floor with a decent ceiling is exactly what you need for your cash game back.
Also Consider: Tony Pollard (if no Zeke, and he is a lock in that case), Chubba Hubbard, Najee Harris (tough matchup but he’s cash viable based on PPR value), Saquon Barkley
It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 5 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.10. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
