David Stowe 
We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 3 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out the game by game article that Adam put out as it has a ton of information for every single game on the slate. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 3 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.26
****My Christian McCaffrey disclaimer is null and void this week but enjoy locking him in 100% of you lineups on Thursday Night Football****
***Note to all new players: Any players that I list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
Cash:
Derrick Henry, Titans, ($8,600DK/$9,700FD):
I may have to include Henry with CMC as a weekly play in my Running Back DFS breakdown if he goes off again this week. For those who missed the boat on Stix telling everyone to get on the King Henry train last week, you have my sincerest condolences. You will not get him at 5% ownership at any point again this season. He is currently projected as one of the highest-owned running backs this week and will likely remain as such for the rest of the year. With the problems that the Colts are likely to have on the offensive side of the ball this week with a banged-up QB and offensive line, the game script has little chance of going in a direction that keeps Henry off the field. We are looking at another 25 carries and plenty of touchdown equity Sunday.
Chris Carson, Seahawks, ($6,400DK/$7,700FD):
Back to the well again as Carson has another juicy matchup that will likely result in a score that is reasonable for cash game play. His yards per carry, touches, and receiving number were down/non-existent from week one to week two but Carson managed to sneak into the end zone twice. As far as matchups go, you couldn’t ask for more. The Vikings defense is weak across the board and the 55.5 point game total is the best on the slate. I expect plenty of people to target the passing game but Carson will get his usual 12-15 carries, 3-5 targets, and be in a good position for scoring opportunities again.
Saquon Barkley, Giants, ($6,500DK/$6,000FD):
The verdict is still out on this one but I think that week three is going to be the week that everyone decides to roster Saquon. While his production was underwhelming, his snap share went from 48% to 84% between week one and week two, he gets several extra days of rest playing last Thursday, and the Washington Football Team has held both the Chargers and Giants running backs to under 100 yards in the first two weeks. While the Falcons did reasonably well against the Bucs there are two differences. First, Saquon is infinitely more talented than Ronald Jones or Leonard Fournette. Second, and more importantly, if you listened to our conversation about Dean Pees’s Falcons defense in week one, you know that it involves a ton of secondary blitzes, and how that can be attacked by mobile quarterbacks. Once a running QB burns Pees, he will account for it, leaving the second level wide open for a running back to break free. Barkley is too big for a safety, too fast for a linebacker. This is going to be fun. But sadly I do not think we can get him at low ownership. I hope I’m wrong.
Also Consider: Dalvin Cook (or Mattison if Cook is out), Ty’Son Williams, Austin Ekeler
GPP:
Joe Mixon, Bengals, ($6,300DK/$6,700FD):
When it comes to running backs, especially in the modern era of football where shared backfields are the norm, volume is key, and nobody outside of Derrick Henry has more touches than the 49 of Joe Mixon through two weeks. While the Steelers defense is solid as ever Defensive end Carlos Davis and Linebacker Alex Highsmith have both missed practice this week and TJ Watt has been limited with a groin issue, giving us a sneaky opportunity for Mixon to break off some chunk plays at what is looking like depressed ownership. We saw last week against the Bears that Cincy is going to lean on the running game regardless of the game script or defensive strength. And with Big Ben and Dionte Hightower injured to go along with that horrid offensive front of the Steelers the Bengals should not find themselves in a position where they will need to completely abandon the run.
D’Andre Swift, Lions, ($5,800DK/$7,400FD):
At first, glance when you look at the Raven’s defense it looks pretty clear that the one strength they may have is slowing the run and the way to attack them is with the tight ends up the seams. While it is true that tight end coverage has been a huge issue, the underlying reason for it is also the reason that I want to roster Swift in GPP’s. The linebackers are failing terribly in pass coverage responsibilities. Malik Harrison and Patrick Queen have looked especially bad, seemingly forgetting their responsibilities multiple times a drive and leaving huge holes for running backs, full back, and tight ends to attack for huge gains. Swift is not giving us much in terms of rushing volume but his volume in the passing games gives him enormous upside this week in a game total of over 50. As always with him before rostering, check out his practice participation since he is still dealing with a groin issue.
Javonte Williams, Broncos, ($4,900DK/$5,800FD):
My final Running Back DFS play is none other than Javonte Williams. Yes, he ended up burning us last week but I am going right back to the well this week. The game total is pathetic against the Jets at 41 points but the implied total for the Broncos is 25.5 and Denver is a huge favorite. Two things stood out last week. First, Williams was close on three separate occasions to breaking loose for huge plays including two that could have been touchdowns. Second, and most importantly for this game 9 of Williams’s 13 carries last week and 21 of his 27 carries overall have come when the Broncos are tied or ahead. The Broncos should get a few extra short-field opportunities and if you have not seen this guy run yet, please go look. He looks incredible and will be taking over the lion’s share of the opportunities from Melvin Gordon sooner rather than later.
Also Consider: Chase Edmonds, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor
It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 3 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.26 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
