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We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week one is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. If you have not had the opportunity yet our guy Rocker just dropped his article for his favorite wide receivers so be sure to go check that out. I will not waste a ton of your time as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 1 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.12
Low ownership plays are all contextual so keep in mind that what may be considered “low owned” in a showdown slate or two-game slate will not be the same as a full Sunday slate. What I aim to do is find you a few nuggets at around 5 percent or under that can separate you from the field in your GPP tournaments. The larger the field or the more maximum entries (150 max vs single entry) the more ownership should weigh into your choices. We will come back to that in the following weeks so that you can get a look at what winners on those weeks went with.
Tyreek Hill, Chiefs, ($8,800DK/$8,500FD) 4.77% Own
I will come back to this on Saturday night and verify but a sub-5% Hill is going to find his way into some of my lineups no matter who he plays against. I know the Browns are very strong defensively but when has that stopped KC? It is Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill week in and week out, rinse and repeat. In the playoffs, just last season Hill went 8-10 for 110 yards. What is significant about that is the Mahomes left that contest in the third quarter with a concussion after 30 pass attempts (season average was 40). KC is projected to score 30 points and Hill’s prop is 6.5 Rec for 80 yards (14.5DK) and is a -140 odds to score (lowest odds in the game). So 20.5 points at under 5%. Yeah, I am good with that.
Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,500DK/$6,600) 2.8% Own
If you have not read my week one running back article, I talked at great length about Sanders, against the Falcons, in a Sirianni-led run game. In week one, at least in my opinion, the ownership numbers are the toughest to nail down in week one so I went out and check numerous sources and the conclusion is the same. Sanders will be under three percent. Hoping this holds, as the upside he provides can help you take down a GPP.
James Robinson, Jaguars,($6,400DK/$5,900FD) 5.35% Own
I never thought that in week one that I would have my cash game lock in my low ownership plays. But if we are the only ones who are on him that is great. The Jags should be greatly improved offensively and they are playing the Houston Trash Cans Texans, the single worst running defense in the NFL. Full stop. Robinson should see close to 20 carries and 3-4 targets. Robinson has the best odds in the entire game to score at +100 with an O/U of 91.5 rushing/receiving yards and 2.5 receptions (18DK points). I do not understand this. He should be 20% in this scenario but I will take this error on the part of other DFS players and take the cash without thinking twice.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans, ($6,500DK/$7,700FD) 3.33% Own
The 3.3% ownership projection must be a result of AJ Brown missing practice leading up to the game day. While I think that is fair and worth keeping an eye on I also know that AJ Brown always misses mid-week practices leading up to game day. It has been a part of his maintenance for a couple of seasons (but this makes me question why Henry 8% but that is a different topic). Titans are favorites by 3 points, in a 53 point total game, against the fastest pace team in the league. Cardinals will blitz a ton but Ryan is a mobile QB who can avoid the rush and the Titans have used the play-action for two seasons to great effect. Oh yeah, and Tannehill has statistically been on par with Mahomes since he took over in Tennessee (a daily reminder) but for $1,600 on DraftKings.
Honorable mention: Justin Jefferson (6.28%), Terry McLaurin (5.71%), Robby Anderson (3.99%), Raheem Mostert (5.39%)
It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and our Week 1 NFL DFS Low Ownership Plays 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
