WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 16 Washington at Dallas 12.26

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 16 Washington at Dallas 12.26.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all-in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 45.5 Cowboys -9

I can tell that Vegas is having a really tough time getting a read on this one. Washington is very much a Jekyll and Hyde team offensively. In the last four games, they have scored 17 in three of them and only 20 in the other ( vs. Dallas). In the two previous they scored 27 and 29 against Carolina and Tampa Bay, then they couldn’t break 10 points in the two before that. This is a tale of two narratives and both present pretty clear paths. Either we are looking at a struggle where you can lean into Dallas’s running game and defense or we are going to have a shootout where Scary Terry and Taylor Heinicke meet for a few big plays and the over is smashed. We say it week in and week out, the story is just as important if not more so than the players you choose. So run a few lineups with each of these narratives playing out and I fully expect you to find yourself in a good spot on the leaderboard when it is all said and done.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 16 Washington at Dallas 12.26 Captains:

Chalk: Dak Prescott, $17,100: (14-16%)

At this point Dak, Zeke, and Ceedee are all within a percentage point of one another as the chalk captain of the day But, when it is all said and done, with Zeke still a week or two away from being 100% (his words, not mine), and with Washington being the worst team in the NFL in passing DVOA I think Dak will end up closer to 25% by the time we reach kickoff. I’ll have several shares of him as captain but as is my personal preference I tend to go underweight on whoever is the “big chalk” to leverage the field in the event they have a down game and there is a case to be made for that. While there is a reasonable chance this game smashed the over, Vegas is projecting this game at a measly 45.5 points in a dome game in Dallas. So make sure that if you use him as captain you ensure the rest of your build reflects that “story” that matches him going off.

Pivot: Terry McLaurin, $13,200: (5-7%)

I know Terry has been underperforming as of late but to be fair it is not all on him. Taylor has not been finding him with any accuracy and the volume has been down over the last several weeks. But if you are playing the narrative that the Football Team can get it together and turn this contest into a shootout then a 6% Terry is a beautiful pivot. Dallas’s defense is very aggressive and they often capitalize and turn it into turnovers. They occasionally slip up though, leaving big-play threats like McLaurin open deep and can result in a huge game. I do not see any scenario where Washingon can keep this close without him going off so Terry will be my main pivot tonight.

Contrarian #1: Ezekiel Elliott: $14,100: (13-15%)

In Elliott’s own words on December 8th, his knee will not be 100% for “three or four more weeks”. That leads me to believe that he is somewhere near 90 percent if we are to assume that his recovery from his knee injury has not had any setbacks. In his last contest, he had a roughly 60-40 timeshare with Tony Pollard, and even against the lowly Giants, his yards per carry were still 3.3, almost a full yard lower than his seasonal average and almost two yards lower than his average when healthy. I very much think that Dallas is going to continue to maintain his timeshare in order to maintain his health for the playoffs but if Zeke gets 16-18 YPS and his knee is healthy enough to explode through the holes like the first half of the year he can very easily see himself in the endzone for multiple scores in this contest.

Contrarian #2: Taylor Heinicke, $15,600: (6-7%)

Washington very well may have no run game tonight. Antonio Gibson hasn’t practiced all week and JD is on the IR. That leaves Jaret Patterson and Jonathon Williams as the two most likely candidates to lead the backfield. But may I provide a third option? Washingon opts to run Taylor mare than either of those two and we get extra production on the ground as well as whatever he manages to do with his arm. Yes he is inconsistent on the best of days and yes he will likely turn the ball over multiple times tonight, but we all know that if a quarterback can run the ceiling is immense even when they play poorly (Jalen Hurts anyone?) If we get 10 carries to go along with a score or two through the air then Taylor has the upside from a fantasy standpoint to separate yourself from the field as a captain.

Contrarian #3: Ceedee Lamb, $15,000: (12-13%)

I went back and forth between Ceedee and Tony Pollard as the last choice but with my lean towards the Football Team staying close I will go Ceedee. The talent is undeniable and he has surpassed Amari Cooper as the Cowboys’ #1 receiver getting no less than 9 targets in three of the last four games he has played and 109 total targets in 13 starts. Washington is also the most susceptible team in the NFL through the air so I will 100% be running some lineups

Additional captain plays based on the scenario:

Cowboys win big (>10): Tony Pollard, Cowboys Defense

Washington Keeps it close in a shootout: Dalton Shultz, Ricky Seals-Jones

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 16 Washington at Dallas 12.26 Flex plays:

1. Dak Prescott
2. Taylor Heinicke
3. CeeDee Lamb
4. Ezekiel Elliott
5. Terry McLaurin
6. Antonio Gibson
7. Amari Cooper
8. Michael Gallup
9. Tony Pollard
10. Jaret Patterson
11. Dalton Schultz
12. Jonathan Williams
13. Adam Humphries
14. DeAndre Carter
15. Ricky Seals-Jones
16. Greg Zuerlein
17. Cowboys
18. Joey Slye
19. Brian Johnson
20. WAS Football Team
21. John Bates
22. Cam Sims
23. Jeremy Sprinkle
24. Cedrick Wilson
25. Malik Turner
26. Dax Milne
27. Dyami Brown

Kickers and defenses:

I am very much interested in the Cowboys defense in this contest and truthfully I do not care which scenario you choose to run in your game scripts. I think that even if Washington scores points there will be enough turnovers and sacks to make them a viable option. It is “sub-optimal” but I do not expect many people to run the shootout scenario with the Dallas defense in the lineup so that is something I think you can leverage in a couple of lineups as a way to make yourself the slightest bit different. I am also “ok” with sprinkling in a kicker here and there although I do not think it is really a necessity to get those cheap points this week as the pricing tonight really is not out of control given the injuries for Washington and the potential ceiling of this game.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 16 Washington at Dallas 12.26. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!