David Stowe 
Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 15 Saints at Buccaneers 12.19.
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all-in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.
Vegas Script: Total: 45 Buccaneers -11
I had a feeling that when this game opened at 48 that we were looking at a potential trap. After several days my initial thoughts are confirmed as the money line is now at 45 and falling. When it comes to the Saints the one thing they do well just so happens to be what the Bucs defend against the best and that is the ground game. I am by no means telling you to completely fade Kamara or Hill but I am going underweight on one of them today (captain only) in part because of Tampa’s strength, but also because in a game like this they will eat into each other’s touchdown equity. I just do not see how the Saints can keep pace for four quarters against the surfeit of weapons on the Bucs offense, but then again we did all witness the Lions smash the Cardinals this week so I barely know what is even real anymore.
Captains:
Chalk: Leonard Fournette, $13,800: (18-20%)
Projections are showing Lenny as the far and away favorite chalk, even beating Kamara by 2-3%. In a vacuum it makes sense, but one thing that I have noticed is that when you are playing single entry contests the rest of the field sees this as well and huge chunks of the field will pivot from the chalk leaving them a little lower owned than what we were expecting. Add in the “Q'” tag and I think what we end up getting tonight is a Lenny that ends up lower owned than Kamara, Brady, and possibly Taysom. This is a beautiful spot for Fournette in a low-scoring game as a huge favorite, so he is primed for another huge workload tonight.
Pivot: Chris Godwin, $15,000: (12-14%)
The Saints do a lot of things well defensively in the secondary but they simply do not perform well against slot receivers historically and Godwin torched them in week 8 with an 8-140-1 line while averaging 17.5 yards per catch. With the absence of Brown and Lattimore presumably staying on Evans I see no reason Brady should not lean on Godwin for the duration of this contest (at least for as long as this stays competitive).
Contrarian #1: Rob Gronkowski, $11,700: (7-8%)
Tight ends in Showdown is a thing in 2021 and there is no reason to not continue the tradition now that we are going down the final stretch with a Tampa team still without AB in a divisional contest. I already touched on the struggles that the Saints have with slot receivers and a lot of the same route concepts will play into Gronks production albeit in a slightly different fashion. I think what Bruce and Tom are going to do tonight to completely mess with New Orleans is to get them on the same side of the ball as often as possible and for the defense to prioritize one over the other. In addition to being weak against the slot, the Saints are bottom four in the league when it comes to defending plays over 15 yards downfield on the right side specifically. There are several combinations where they can use Godwin to clear that area out leaving Gronk open on a seam route where I am expecting him to reach the endzone on at least one occasion tonight.
Contrarian #2: Taysom Hill, $15,600: (7-8%)
I find myself having a difficult time recommending Saints as captains tonight but I would be selling you guys short if I didn’t recommend someone in tonight’s contest. Yes, they will struggle I think but that does not mean that there aren’t fantasy points to be had. In comes ole Taysom Hill. I have never been a believer in him as a QB. He has a big arm and can run. But, he is detrimental to Kamara in the receiving game and he has a habit of vulturing TD’s in goal-line formations. Bad for Kamara, great for us for production. I go Hill over Kamara specifically because I think the Bucs will be more inclined to sell out to stop Kamara or even stacking the box to stop both, giving Hill a few opportunities deep downfield to hit Tre’Quan or Lil Jordan deep downfield for a tuddy or two if he can be accurate tonight. In either scenario, Hill has the best opportunity to be a viable captain tonight.
Contrarian #3: Tom Brady, (14-16%)
The only reason Tom is all the way down as my final contrarian play is that of all the scenarios I see playing out today, the Bucs getting down by any margin large enough to require Brady to throw it 50 times is the least likely. Being 11 point favorites in a game total of 45 tells me that he could very well lack the volume needed to support the type of game script that would cause him to be the top captain on the board. But I would be a complete fool if I did not put him in here as we all know that when it comes to Brady it does not always matter what the script is. If he feels like throwing it he will. So for that reason, he will be in my captain’s pool tonight.
WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 15 Saints at Buccaneers 12.19 Flex plays:
- Tom Brady
- Alvin Kamara
- Taysom Hill
- Chris Godwin
- Leonard Fournette
- Mike Evans
- Rob Gronkowski
- Mark Ingram II
- Tre’Quan Smith
- Ronald Jones II
- Marquez Callaway
- Ryan Succop
- Buccaneers
- Brett Maher
- Nick Vannett
- Saints
- Cameron Brate
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey
- Tyler Johnson
- Juwan Johnson
- Adam Trautman
Kickers and defenses:
When a game total gets below about 46 points I will add a little more weight to kickers and defenses due to the scarcity of points being projected by the experts in Vegas. In this instance, I am 100% comfortable running either kicker out tonight but if I run either defense it will be the Bucs. I expect the Saints to be forced into the uncomfortable position of throwing to catch up for the majority of the game, and while the Bucs secondary has not been impressive by any stretch this season Taysom throws a ton of questionable passes that I think can be capitalized on tonight.
It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 15 Saints at Buccaneers 12.19. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
