David Stowe 
Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 13 Broncos at Chiefs 12.5.
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.
Vegas Script: Total: 46.5 Chiefs -8.5
Vegas is making it pretty clear, the Broncos are supposed to struggle offesively to keep up and the Chiefs should be ahead quite early. While I am usually inclined to agree, I would not be surprised to see the Chiefs come out and have one of their random struggle Sundays. All else being equal though, I do believe that the Chiefs get out big in the begining and the Broncos play a much too concervative game plan when trying to catch up and never really get themselves within distance of catching up.
Captains:
Chalk: Tyreek Hill, $16,200 (16-17%)
Based on our oprimizer the chalk captain on the even is non other than the Cheetah, and after 4 straight weeks with no less than 10 targets, including 18 targets in one of those I do not blame you. The numbers have been “meh” for the amount of voume so he is (a) underpriced for his upside and (b) due for a massive game. When it comes to the Chiefs we all know what they bring to the table so play your favorite.
Pivot: Javonte Williams, $11,400 (11-12%)
Finally, after 12 weeks we get to see what Javonte can do with the full work load. We also get the added benefit of a Chiefs defense that is historically mediocre against the run. I want to heap all kinds of platitudes and tell you guys and gals to go all in here. But we need to be aware the Chiefs could run away from this one early and Javonte will not get the workload we hope. But if this game does stay close there is an outside chance that Williams is the top raw points scorer on the slate. Do not play him in all of you lineups at captain but you need to have him inseveral of your builds as a captian. I can’t wait to see what this guy can do.
Contrarian #1: Patrick Mahomes: $18,600 (15-16%)
As I mentioned above, we all know what KC brings to the table. Mahomes has been very inconsistent this season but we all know his upside and the Broncos defense does not concern me in the slightest tonight. Would anyone be shocked if he threw for 350 and 3 td’s? No, ok me either.
Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce, $15,000 (11-12%)
The big three of the Chiefs are largely interchangeable in showdown contests but I had to put Kelce as the bottom of the three simply because Denver has covered tight ends very well all season As a matter of fact they are the 4th best in terms of DVOA against guarding tight ends. Kelce is no normal tight end though, and he can easily end the night with 11 targets, 8 catches for 119 and 2 TD’s but paying for all three studs on the Chiefs is gonna be a tough task so for that reason Kelce is at the bottom of the list for KC tonight.
Contrarian #3: Jerry Jeudy, $10,800 (5-6%)
Outside of Javonte I am grasping at straws with this offense. Teddy simply does not put up big games so it may be in your best interest to pick a different Denver wide receiver in each lineup, It just so happens that I am opting to lean on the talent of Jeudy and hope that Teddy decides to lean on him this week. You could just as easily go with Sutton or even Fant in this same scenario for the same reason. The Broncos will likely be playing from behing so you can leverage the low ownership of any of those pass catchers and and pray that they throw for the entire second half.
WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 13 Broncos at Chiefs 12.5. Flex plays:
- Patrick Mahomes
- Tyreek Hill
- Travis Kelce
- Teddy Bridgewater
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Javonte Williams
- Jerry Jeudy
- Courtland Sutton
- Tim Patrick
- Noah Fant
- Mecole Hardman
- Chiefs
- Harrison Butker
- Mike Boone
- Broncos
- Darrel Williams
- Byron Pringle
- Albert Okwuegbunam
- Demarcus Robinson
- Eric Saubert
- Brandon McManus
- Blake Bell
- Kendall Hinton
- Josh Gordon
- Marcus Kemp
- Michael Burton
- Noah Gray
Kickers and defenses:
I’m not really interested in either of these defenses tonight. Teddy really is not prone to turning the ball over and the Broncos play uber conservative football. Even If the Chiefs get ahead big I do not really see them taking too many risks. Both kickers in Butker and McManus are low priced options for me to get close to double digit points if you are looking to load up on all of the obvious big name guys.
It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 13 Broncos at Chiefs 12.5. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
