David Stowe 
Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going.
Vegas Script: Total: 56.5 Chiefs -3
This game needs no explanation. The two highest-scoring offenses in the league square off against one another in a 56.5 total game. The story as of late has been the defense of the Bills if you ask the pundits, but we all know the truth. They played the Steelers, Dolphins, Washington, and Houston. It is easy to look dominant against backup QBs and the worst O-Line in the NFL. That flat-out just will not happen tonight. But enough of that let us take a look at the most obvious captain’s picks of the year and see where we can find some value because this is honestly one of the hardest showdowns you could play in due to the number of elite options out there on both sides.
Captains:
Chalk: Josh Allen $18,600:
It’s 1A versus 1B between Mahomes and Allen tonight and I think the ownership will play that out. The only reason that I am going with Allen as the main chalk is the higher rushing upside and touchdown equity. After back-to-back 40 point outings for the Bills it is hard to say what they and Allen will be able to do with a team that can actually keep up with them.
Pivot: Patrick Mahomes $18,000:
It is Patrick Mahomes, what else do you need to know? I know the the big networks were slobbering over the recent play of the Bills defense but they have playing 3 of 4 games against backups and the Steelers have the worst protection schemes in the NFL on the o-line outside of the Jags and Bears (with Nagy calling plays)
Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce, $13,800:
Kelce let a ton of people down last week so the difference between him and Hill is next to nothing, but we can take that recency bias and hopefully get ourselves the slightest of benefit with ownership. After Hill went off for 50 DK last week I will lean on Kelce attacking the Bill’s safety’s tonight and being my preferred contrarian play at captain in this contest.
Contrarian #2: Tyreek Hill
12 catches for 186 yards and 3 TDs. That is what the cheetah did to the Eagles last week. Can he do it again, absolutely? But as I mentioned above I am trying to split the finest of hairs and I think we can get Kelce at a few percent discount at captain over Hill. Like everyone else in this article for captain choices, his body of work speaks for itself.
Contrarian#3: Stefon Diggs :
The Odd man out if you want to get different is Diggs. He has only had one game of over 20 DK points and everyone is shooting for the moon tonight so I think he comes in as by far the lowest “stud” captain. Allen has been finding multiple receivers with guys like Davis, Sanders, and Beasley on the field as well as Dawson Knox, Zack Moss, and Devin Singletary playing nicely in the early going. But in big games, the big-name players are the ones who are supposed to take over and this is a perfect spot to get different and leverage against the four players I listed about.
WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10 Flex Plays:
- Emmanuel Sanders
- Zack Moss
- Dawson Knox
- Cole Beasley
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Mecole Hardman
- Demarcus Robinson
- Gabriel Davis
- Byron Pringle
- Harrison Butker
- Tyler Bass
- Josh Gordon
- Jody Fortson
Kickers and defenses:
I am fully fading both of these defenses tonight but with so many high-priced guys if you absolutely have to throw in a kicker to upgrade elsewhere it is an easy way to get a solid floor. Just understand that if you choose to go that route you are going to be limited in your upside with a kicker in this kind of game so make sure that the trade-off is worth it.
It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
