Sia 
I’m very excited to arrive in Phoenix for multiple reasons, not the least of which is that we only have one course this week and we likely won’t have much by way of weather concerns. This is definitely a ball strikers course with a premium focus on SG APP. Being good OTT helps as always but this is a second shot golf course so I’ll be focusing on those metrics along with the typical focus upon recent form and course history. Join me and Michael Rasile and the King of Showdowns, Joel Schrek, at 8:00 tonight for all of our DFS plays as we do our typical deep dive. We will also be hitting you with our customary first round leader and outright bets (which I’ve hit two weeks in a row). Let’s get to the Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks.
Jon Rahm (11200) – A guy who consistently lands in the Top 10 with the upside for a takedown. Rahm rates out 4th T2G and while he picks up more strokes OTT versus APP (I’d prefer the opposite here) I think he’s in great form and he’s coming home to a course he’s probably played a ton.
Xander Schauffele (11000) – Like most DFS players, I get Xander wrong more than I get him right. With that said, I really like what I saw from Xander last week on a course he usually can’t get right. Last week he had to battle just to make the cut and then kept chipping away until falling into 2nd place. There are guys with better course history than Xander and Rahm, but there my guys this week in the elite range.
Daniel Berger (9600) – Another guy with very good course history who is really rounding into form. Right before the break he was trending to average but since then he’s finished 10th at Sentry and 7th at Sony. I think his upside includes a 1st place finish, particularly if he finds a hot putter, which he has been known to do.
Will Zalatoris (9000) – This new kid on the block appears to have all the tools to compete with the best and he showed that last week, a feat particularly impressive since he had zero course experience at Torrey Pines. Zalatoris doesn’t have a lot of PGA rounds under his belt, but the rounds he does have pop off the page particularly on APP.
Russell Henley (8200) – Last time I thought this guy was a “safe play” he missed the cut at the American Express. Henley dominates on APP, but a closer look shows that said domination occurs about half the time. His track record here is hit or miss and his recent history is hit or miss, but if he’s hitting his irons right you are getting great value at this price.
Corey Conners (7900) – Corey is definitely part of team no-putt, but his ball striking is elite relative to the others in the 7k range. He’s been a regular Top 25 finisher over the last few months, including a 10th at the Masters and a 10th at RSM.
Henrik Norlander (7500) – I’m always careful not to chase last week’s points and that’s certainly in play here, but the upside is too much to pass up with Norlander. He was excellent last week with a 2nd place finish and 12th place right before that at The American Express. The ball striking has been great and it looks like this guy has turned a corner.
Emiliano Grillo (7300) – Did someone say team no-putt? Unfortunately Grillo is a captain of that squad but his ball striking is elite and I’m going to hope that he finds a warm putter (a “hot” putter is probably asking too much). His course history here is average at best, but I still see him as a great value here.
Michael Thompson (7200) – Don’t look now, but Thompson might be the most underrated golfer in this entire field. He’s got four top 25’s in the last four tournaments including a 5th at The American Express. His ball striking has been very good lately and while he loses OTT, I expect him to pick up strokes everywhere else.
Sebastian Munoz (7100) – Once I’m down in this range I’m really looking for upside and that’s exactly what Munoz offers. He can get really hot and can carry your DFS roster for at least a few days. I’ll take some shots here.
Joel Dahmen (6800) – Joel does not have a good course history here and his recent history isn’t much better, but this is more of a hunch play as I believe in his game OTT and on APP and think he can be a big time scorer if he finds his game. I’ll warn you that I won’t have many shares of Dahmen but I do love the upside.
Davis Riley (6100) – Another new kid on the block, but this guy is even newer than Will Zalatoris. And by the way, in 2020 he absolutely crushed it on the Korn Ferry Tour with Will Zalatoris. The KFT is no joke and I think this could be a diamond in the rough, but it’s not an SE or 3max play, it’s more of an MME play.
Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – tune into Discord Wednesday night.
See everyone tonight on the PGA Livestream on our YouTube page or on Twitter @windailysports and be sure to check out all of the PGA content at windailysports.com and in Discord. Thanks for reading my Waste Management Phoenix Open: Initial Picks.
