Steven Polardi 
Waste Management Open Final Projections
Before we get to the Waste Management Open Final Projections… Last week Michael Jordan was being interviewed, the host asked him if his Chicago Bulls could beat the reigning two time juggernaut Los Angeles Lakers in a game, Michael paused for a moment and said, “yes……we can.” The host asked, by how many points? Michael replied, ”2 or 3.” The host queried, “why such a low spread ” Michael said, “hell man, we are all over 60 years old now.” It’s all about perceptions.
Last week our projections were off by a little more than 5% for the first time, our back testing and SIP program showed us why. There was the factor of the two courses and the knowledge that one was tougher than the other, and on Thursday there were supposed to be high winds and weather, this drove a majority of the team building process on Wednesday afternoon, on Thursday morning before lock, reports of sunny skies, no wind and calmer conditions sent a wave of editing teams in the opposite direction.
I mention this to let you all know we spent 36 hours backtesting projection data to find out why, six groggy, disgruntled and sleep deprived people had to find out, because ultimately, you as Win Daily Sports subscribers depend on the projections to make your lineups and roster your teams to make money, hopefully a lot of money. It matters to us. A lot. I remember years ago when I got my first 10,000.00 check from Draftkings, it was blue with black ink, with zeros on it, and the most important thing is it cleared the bank, and every one of them since then has. Joel can confirm this, he won 70,000 last weekend on Showdown, then he put out a video on HOW to do it. We all get excited when you win, it allows us to revisit our first and all our big victories, and that’s why we are here, doing what we do. Let’s get down to the Waste Management Phoenix Open Final Projections.
Leading the ownership % pack this week is lone wolf Jon Rahm, at 26.2%, he is 43% to make the optimal lineup, so he is still holding value…..for now. Next is Daniel Berger at 24%, his ownership has shot up since early am today, he is followed by Justin Thomas at 22%, Justin has the lowest shots gained % of all the 10 K golfers, it’s dangerous to fade him but the numbers say different. We have a three way tie that includes Webb Simpson, Xander Schauffele and Rory McILroy, they are all at 18.8%.
We dip down a smidge to Sungjae IM at 16.6%, I do like his approach game, Harris English, who forgot last week he was actually playing in a tourney, follows at 15.7%. Corey Conners is 15%, yes, yes, and yes. B. An is 14.9%, I put him in the cheat sheet earlier when he was 9.9%, presently he’s almost 15%, that is a pure pivot for me now. Will Zalatoris who keeps proving how good he is, even on short metrics history is 13.9%, yes please, Bubba Watson is 13.6%, his course history is good, but jeez almighty, watching him hit that sharp curving drive is nerve racking at best, Sam Burns is 13.2%, and a solid value, Max Homa is 12.3% and a darling of the live stream jocks, next is Hideki Matsuyama at 12.3%, he does rate as a solid, but average play, Joel’s secret crush Henrik Norlander is 11%, surprise ! Brendan Steele is 10.8%…why? Russel Henley is 10.5%, he misses the cut every other year here, he is supposed to make this one, I’ll take a chance just based on his current metrics, GPP only, no cash, SE or 3 Max.
Golfers Under 10% Projected Ownership:
Ryan Palmer is 9.7%, at 9200 salary, wow, he is a bit overpriced but is a safe play, Si Woo Kim is 9.6%, Rickie Fowler, who was cussed out by our own Michael Rasile when he was at this tournament (and admonished because it was NOT the 16th hole) is 9.4%. Michael said it was due to his exuberant youth, nahh, not buying it, I’m thinking lots and lots of adult beverages. Scottie Scheffler is 8.4%, at his %, he actually rates as a decent GPP play, Carlos Ortiz is 8.3% and I’m on him this week, Billie Horschel is 8.2%, Luke List is 7.9%, Gary Woodland is 7.6% and a hard choice, low owned, still coming into form, not there yet for me. Brian Harman is tied with Brooks Koepka at 7.5%, it’s hard to fathom that the only golfer I’d consider there is Harman. Ryan Moore is 7.4%, yes, yes and yes. Chris Kirk is 7.3%, he is one of Sia’s favorites, for those of you that are hearing impaired, HE IS ONE OF SIA’S FAVORITES, Cameron Champ is 7.2% and a pivot off of B. An, Matt Jones, Jason Day and John Huh are 6.9%, Patton Kizzire and Louis Oosthuizen are 6.2%, Martin Laird is 6%, I’m on him, Sebastian Munoz is 5.7% owned, oh, hell yes, way to much upside for price and ownership, also a tad risky this week but worth it, Doc Redman is 5.4%, Matt Kuchar is 5%, he has great tourney history, just not so great recent history.
Golfers Under 5% Projected Ownership:
Talor Gooch, or “Goochie” is 4.9% owned, Rory Sabbatini and Dylan Frittelli are 4.8% owned, they will pair up with Francesco Molinari later Thurs as the Chef Boyardee trio. Kevin Streelman is 4.8% and a Vegas darling, Brendan Todd is 4.7%, Emiliano Grillo and Sepp Straka are 4.5% owned, Adam Long and Lucas Glover are 4.4% owned, Glover is a sneaky play, Zach Johnson is 4.2%, Russel Knox and get this, Matt Wolff, yes that Matt, are 4.1% owned, how quickly they fall, Kyle Stanley is 4.0%, Cameron Tringale, Wyndham Clark and Adam Hadwin are 3.8% owned. Michael Thompson and Joel Dahmen are 3.6% owned, Bo Hoag and Keith Mitchell are 3.3%, Harry Higgs, all of Harry Higgs, is 3.2%. Harold Varner lll and Charley Hoffman are 3% owned, Aaron Wise and Stewart Cink are 2.8% owned, Nick Taylor is 2.6%, Charl Schwartzel and Keegan Bradley are 2.5%, Chez Reavie and Sam Ryder are 2.4%, and sadly, just because the live stream team of Michael, Sia and Joel made jokes about him, poor, poor little Jordan Spieth is only 2.2% owned, makes you kinda want to roster him, sniff, no love, poor guy……no, stop, don’t do it, it’s a joke, just like his game right now. I do hope he comes back though, honestly do, he’s a hellova golfer that is way inside his head too much right now, when you’re asking blades of grass about how your last swing was…….well, you know. Matthew NeSmith is also 2.2%, along with J.T. Poston.
Gophers under 2% Projected Ownership:
There are no Gophers in the PGA, all the great golfers from Oklahoma State ate them. Tom Hoge, Richie Werenski, J.B, Holmes, Pat Perez and Will Gordon are all 1.6% owned, Tom Lewis and Mark Hubbard are 1.5%, Denny McCarthy and Eric Vann Rooyen are 1.4%, Patrick Rodgers, Austin Cook, and Davis Riley, a newcomer from the Korn Ferry are 1.3% owned, Adam Schenk is 1.2% owned, Brian Stuard is 1.1% owned. All other golfers set to tee off Thursday morning are under 1% ownership at the time of this report, including Robbie Shelton and Vaughn Taylor at .98% owned.
Waste Management Open Final Projections Picks:
Top Tier: Jon Rahm and Will Zalatoris ( Scheffler GPP ONLY )
Mid Tier: Corey Conners and Sam Burns
Low Tier: Ryan Moore
Out in Left: Lucas Glover is my out in left play this week.
I mentioned Joel’s video in the paragraph above on how he won 70,000. There may be some truth to the rumor that Martin Scorsese, the famous director, saw the clip and is considering Joel for the lead in his new motion picture, The Golffather, coming soon to a theatre near you.
I want to thank all of you who took time to review this article, we do appreciate it, when you can, please review Sia’s initial article on Tuesday’s, followed by The Win Daily Sports live stream with Michael Rasile, Sia and Joel on Tuesday evenings at 800 EST. Antonio will have his picks out in his article just released, and after Patrick “ Sharps“ Scott makes bail over that unfortunate Morikawa incident, he’ll be writing very soon. I want to welcome Charlemagne to our group as well, very exciting projects to look forward to.
Speaking of looking forward to something, that’s right boys and girls!! It’s almost time !! Can I dare say it? May I dare say it? IT’S SUPER SIA and HIS SECRET WEAPON!!! Dun Dun Dun, If you had a tout that gave you the picks from the sorriest teams, that nobody wanted, and those picks hit at 90% winners, (and he was handsome to boot,) why, you’d adopt him ! You don’t have too, he’s right here on Discord! The pick will be too, very very soon…..
I will also be in Discord after this article is published to help with roster construction, ownership %, player metrics, and any questions you may have along with other writers as well, thanks again.
As always, I hope to be with you, on Sunday afternoon, in the money.
Sicily Kid/ Steven
