UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov DFS Analysis

UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov 

We were able to enjoy a week off from UFC last week after three fight cards in seven days. After a short layoff were back with a solid fight card this week before we finally see the Usman vs Burns title fight. This week’s card UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov has been altered already as two fights on the main card have changed. It has been difficult to get an article this week as DraftKings is waiting to add some fighters when fights are confirmed by the UFC. On DraftKings the highest priced fighter is Cory Sandhagen although Cody Stamann is the largest betting favorite at -500. In this article I will be strictly looking for fights that I believe end early to maximize my ceiling on DraftKings. You especially want to look into that with the big early knockout bonus they started offering after the new year. For this card I will breakdown my three favorite fights to target and evaluate the main event.  

UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov 

Alistair Overeem vs Alexander Volkov 

This fight is bound to be fireworks, these two combined bring in 66 total finishes before the final bell! I will have 100 exposure to his fight likely to lean 60% Volkov and 40% Overeem. I feel these two are very evenly matched together that’s why my exposure is close and might change to 50-50. Overeem fights typically don’t need judges, in 65 career fights just eight have gone the distance. In 15 of his 18 losses Overeem didn’t see the final bell which is my biggest concern.

I like Volkov on the feet he has been doing well at picking his shots and staying out of range. His strikes landed to strikes absorbed numbers show that with a +2.23-striking ratio. My concern for Volkov is getting beat on the mat where Overeem has 17 submissions finishes. These two Heavyweights will settle this without needing the judges and that’s always a recipe for an amazing main event! 

UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov

Justin Jaynes ($7,000) vs Devonte Smith ($9,200) 

We have an entertaining matchup here against two pure strikers. Neither of these fighters have landed a successful takedown according to UFC stats. These two fighters look for that knockout bonus and throw with heavy hands. Smith has yet to see judges’ score cards as all of his professional fights have ended early. All of his previous three fights failed to make it past round one.

Jaynes has finished 13 of his 16 wins inside the distance as well. Two of Jaynes last three fights were stopped in the first round but all three of those never saw the final bell. I will roll with Jaynes here due to the massive salary savings. I do feel he has the knockout upside and that he has the advantage the longer this fight goes. If you can afford Smith he is a solid play as well holding massive early finish upside and he’s proven it. I’ll have shares of both but love the savings on Jaynes. 

Selection – Justin Jaynes ($7,000) 1^st round KO 

Diego Ferreira ($8,200) vs Beneil Dariush ($8,000) 

Both of these fighters have really improved their boxing in their recent fights. Dariush has three straight finishes before the second round was over. Two of those were by knockouts showing his boxing improvement. I give Dariush a slight edge in the grappling department mainly due to his defensive grappling and 80% takedown defense. Although Ferreira has improved his boxing, I don’t think he offers major knockout power with just three knockouts in 17 wins. I personally think this is an awesome matchup stylistically and has potential for fight of the night. With that mentioned I do believe one of these two can pay off their salary if this goes to a decision. I will have plenty of exposure to this fight for that given reason. 

Selection – Beneil Dariush ($8,000) 2^nd round KO 

Mike Rodriguez ($9,000) vs Danilo Marques ($7,200) 

It looks to me that this fight is getting over looked and rightfully so with several other heavier favorites on this card. Marques really hasn’t beaten anyone and his lone UFC win was against Khadis Ibragimov whom went 0-4 in his UFC tenure. That was an ugly fight and was painful to watch although Marques got the win. Rodriquez has power and massive 1^st round finish potential. All eleven of his victories have come without a judge’s decision. The 5.19 significant strikes landed per minute and 59% strike accuracy is a big reason for the striking favoring Rodriquez. Marques has an edge on the mat and will likely attempt to get this fight on the ground. I believe Rodriquez will be able to use his kicks to avoid getting taken down by Marques. I have Marques getting put to sleep by the hands of Rodriquez. 

Selection – Mike Rodriquez ($9,000) 1^st round KO 

Honorable Mentions

Timur Valiev – ($9,300)

Molly McCann – ($8,500)

Manel Kape – ($7,900)

Seungwoo Choi – ($7,100)

UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov 

Final Thoughts 

Thanks for reading my article UFC Vegas 18 Overeem vs Volkov breakdown. It has been a crazy week of alterations to the card and that could continue. With COVID impacting many fights we could see some cancellations or changes prior to Saturday yet. Jump into Discord Chat where we keep you updated on all incoming news and the best ways to adjust. Myself and other Win Daily staff members will be in Discord tomorrow after weigh ins and Saturday up until lock. Feel free to ask me about my selections because I do make a prediction for each fight. All thoughts are based off my own film study and stats that I evaluate. It may come as a surprise but I don’t think that Stamann (largest betting favorite) is a gimmie to win. Askar does have some solid striking ability if he can avoid the wrestling of Stamann. Next week is exciting with the Welterweight belt on the line as Kamaru Usman faces Gilbert Burns to dictate who takes home the gold!