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UFC Vegas 16 Fight Breakdown
Welcome to the UFC Vegas 16 Fight Breakdown for this week taking place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Our main event on this card is Jack Hermansson squaring off against Marvin Vettori. Again, due to the pandemic the main event for this week was changed as Vettori replaced Kevin Holland. Holland tested positive for COVID but will fight on another date before the end of the year. This card will consist of six prelim bouts and five main card matchups. In this article I will be using DraftKings pricing. On DraftKings Movsar Evloev is the highest priced fighter which correlates in Vegas as he will come in the biggest favorite on the card at -675. Based upon my research I will breakdown the main event and three other fights that that I am positive will not go the distance. I see tons of early finish potential in this fantastic card, so let’s hop into the breakdown!
Jack Hermansson – ($8,000) vs Marvin Vettori ($8,200)
Both fighters had impressive first round victories via submission last time out. Hermansson is an exceptional grappler, showing that last time out getting a heel hook from bottom position to end the fight early. He will look to chew up your legs and has good striking numbers landing twice as much as he absorbs. A noteworthy stat is nine out of Hermansson’s eleven UFC fights have ended without needing the judges. In his last two five round fights he got finished in the second round in one and scored 122 DraftKings points with a decision in the other.
Vettori also looked fantastic his last time out locking up a rear naked choke in the first round. Before he locked that submission in, he did some serious work on the mat with his ground and pound. A submission win is no surprise as nine of Vettori’s wins have come by submission. He has dominated his opponents in the striking department also by out striking them by more than double in three straight fights.
I give Hermansson the edge in this bout as it will be Vettori’s first five round main event. I do think this is an evenly matched fight with two great fighters. I will have 100% of the main event because even if it goes the distance scoring will be high. I will roll out 60% Hermansson and 40% Vettori.
Ilia Topuria – ($9,000) vs Damon Jackson – ($7,200)
For Jackson this will be a similar matchup to his most recent bout facing Mirsad Bektic. In that fight Jackson got taken down easily due to his lousy 35% take down defense. When getting taken to the mat he would look for a guillotine which usually allowed Bektic top control. He did find a way to win by way of one of those guillotine chokes however, Jackson was dominated on the ground as Bektic held nearly nine minutes and thirty seconds of control time.
Grappling is Topuria’s bread and butter no doubt about that. He has shown some improvements in the striking department but that is mostly to set up his takedowns. The kid is only 23 years old and has been a black belt for three years already. That shows on the mat as his transitions are seamless, he is a submission expert. As soon as you think he’s going for a rear naked choke he goes for a guillotine. If Jackson goes for the guillotine on takedowns again and gives up top position, I expect Topuria to use his grappling and wrestling to get a submission.
Selection – Ilia Topuria – ($9,000) 1st round Submission
Gabriel Benitez – ($8,600) vs Justin Jaynes – ($7,600)
These fighters both typically end a win before the final bell. Benitez has finished seventeen of his twenty-one wins early. Benitez will attempt loads of kicks and he lands them heavy. In his last fight against Morales the low kicks were checked and opened a big wound on Benitez leg. Against Morales he also showed his poor strike accuracy landing just 17 of his 133 attempted significant head strikes. If this fight were to go to the ground Benitez does have ten submission finishes.
Prior to his loss to Gavin Tucker, Jaynes had finished five straight fights in the first round. Even in his fight with Tucker he landed a big uppercut and scored a knockdown. Then had Tucker in a guillotine choke to where Tucker literally lost his shorts just to escape it. That was all in the first round so he may have gassed himself out as his strikes landed and attempted both plummeted after the first round. He got dominated after the first round and that led to his first defeat before the final bell. He puts together great combinations and often throws punches with a lot of power. If this fight ends in the first round It will be Jaynes landing the knockout early.
Selection – Justin Jaynes – ($7,600) 1st Round KO/TKO
Jimmy Flick – ($8,500) vs Cody Durden – ($7,700)
We all know one thing and that is that Jimmy Flick wants the fight on the ground. Thirteen of Flick’s fifteen wins have come by submission, he has also been knocked out in four of his five losses. Flick is so smooth when he gets you to the ground going from one submission attempt to the next. He likes to be aggressive with leg kicks but isn’t the best boxer failing to win by knockout to this point and being finished early by punches four times.
Cody Durden has eleven professional wins and just one of those went to the judges scored card. In his last bout he took on a short notice and it was his UFC debut. He started the fight impressive having Gutierrez back locked landing some ground and pound shots. After the first round is when the kicks and leg strikes got to Durden and leading to a decision draw. It was a tough matchup for his UFC debut. I do believe Durden is the better striker in this matchup and can hold off the takedowns of Flick to land his punches. I’ll take the salary saving of Durden but be aware if this fight gets to the mat Flick will likely end it early with a submission.
Selection – Cody Durden – ($7,700) 1st round KO/TKO
MORE
Jordan Leavitt – GPP – ($9,200)
Roman Dolidze – GPP – ($8,700)
Ovince Saint Preux – GPP – ($7,800)
Closing Thoughts
I appreciate you taking the time to read my UFC Vegas 16 Fight Breakdown on this first weekend of December. This should be an entertaining fight card with close matchups up and down the card. Jordan Leavitt is the another extremely heavy favorite coming in at -430 facing Matt Wiman. Head over to the Discord Chat rooms to join myself and other WinDaily staff as we keep you updated on any news after weigh-ins and up until lock. A fight can easily get called off last minute like Smolka vs Quinonez a few weeks ago. I will be in Discord Friday night after weigh-ins and Saturday until lock to answer any questions about the UFC Vegas 16 slate. Remember in large field GPP’s your going to need to be different and take risks. Enjoy your weekend and let’s get a tournament takedown!
