Mitchell Thoennes 
UFC Vegas 15 Fight Breakdown
This Thanksgiving week’s fight card brings us a Heavyweight tilt that is headlining this UFC Vegas 15 Fight Breakdown slate. Our main event for the weekend will consist of Curtis Blaydes squaring off against Derrick Lewis. Six fights will be featured in the prelims with five being on the main card. For this eleven-fight slate I will be using DraftKings pricing. Blaydes will be featured as the top priced fighter as Lewis is the lowest priced fighter. I will be breaking down the main event along with three other fights that I am confident will end early to help maximize value. On this card we won’t have title fights or as many highly recognizable fighters as last week but is a fun card regardless. With two heavyweight matchups in the last three events, there is bound to be intensity in this card. Now let’s jump into the breakdown for this amazing fight slate!
Curtis Blaydes – ($9,300) vs Derrick Lewis ($6,900) – CANCELLED
Spike Carlyle – (8,900) vs Bill Algeo – ($7,300)
According to UFC stats, Algeo’s last two fights resulted in him being struck significantly over 100 times. In his last fight he was also taken down five times with his opponent (Ricardo Lamas) accumulating over six minutes of control time. Even with the fight being a decision Lamas scored over 100 DraftKings points. A big reason Algeo has taken a beating may be his lousy 35% strike defense. Algeo is a well-rounded fighter but leaves his hands low to his waist even when closing the distance, which allows him to get hit often.
Prior to Carlyle’s recent decision loss, he had managed three straight finishes in the first round by punches or ground and pound. Carlyle also had over nine minutes of control time his last fight, which is noteworthy if we compare it to Algeo’s last fight. Even if this fight doesn’t get finished early it has potential for a high scoring bout in a decision. I do think you can use Algeo as nice salary saver because if his defense has improved any, he has the potential. I however do not think his defense has improved and Carlyle catches him with a heavy counter strike early.
Selection – Spike Carlyle – ($8,900) 1st round KO
Miguel Baeza – ($8,700) vs Takashi Sato – ($7,500)
Both of these fighters are relatively new to the UFC, neither of them have more than three fights with the organization. First, we will start with Baeza who has an undefeated record of 9-0 entering this matchup. He has looked excellent with his striking ability landing five knockdowns in his past three fights. Baeza does get hit about as often as he lands though which is a concern. With the most recent opponent being Matt Brown who is nearly 40 years old with over 40 professional fights under his belt. Brown had been finished in 13 of his 17 professional losses, so Baeza finishing him early was no surprise.
For Sato he will be entering his fourth UFC bout facing Baeza. His last fight against Jason Witt was an impressive victory that ended before the first minute of the first round. Sato is a fantastic striker as his last six wins have come from punches/ground and pound (four of those six ending first round). Sato’s two most recent losses have ended early via submission. Vegas has this fight much closer than the DraftKings pricing as Sato is just a +120 underdog. Each of these fighters haven’t shown the capability to avoid punches, so if this fight stays on the feet, I suspect it will end before the final bell. Sato can strike with Baeza, and Vegas has this fight much closer than the DraftKings pricing that’s why I will take Sato and his salary savings in this fight.
Selection – Takashi Sato – ($7,500) 2nd Round KO/TKO
Anthony Smith – ($8,500) vs Devin Clark – ($7,700)
Any fight that has Anthony Smith in it is unlikely to go the distance, I mean that. In his 49 fight professional career just five, that’s right five of his fights have gone to the judges scorecards. Smith absorbs nearly one and a half more strikes per minute than he lands. If we look at his last five fights he’s been out struck in all of them and two were even wins. Granted he has faced brutal opponents in Jon Jones and Glover Teixeira to name a few. Smith is an amazing championship level fighter that has been the main event for his last five trips to the octagon. A three round fight where he doesn’t need to worry about saving his gas tank may be what he needs to get back on track.
In Clark’s last two fight’s majority of his strikes landed have come in the clinch or on the ground. That is where Smith struggles with defending strikes the most is from the mat (Check last two fights). The last three fights Smith has lost he got dominated in the clinch and on the ground, this could be a very intriguing matchup given that’s where Clark’s strikes have come from. All of Clark’s UFC wins have come from a decision against not near the caliber opponents Smith has faced recently. If we look at Clark two fight’s ago he faced a fighter that doesn’t have a win in the UFC . I’m taking Smith to finish this fight early with his experience against high level competition.
Selection – Anthony Smith – ($8,500) 1st Round Submission
UFC Vegas 15 Fight Breakdown MORE
After Blaydes fight being Cancelled Kamaka will gain plenty of ownership and Parisian may be a solid pivot.
Kai Kamaka – GPP – ($9,200)
Josh Parisian – GPP – ($9,000)
Malcolm Gordon – GPP – ($7,100)
Closing Thoughts
Thank you for taking the time to read my UFC Vegas 15 Fight Breakdown this holiday week. Majority of these fights are extremely close in Vegas odds. DraftKings pricing and Vegas odds are lining up almost identical this week. Last week’s weigh-ins did bring some altering news with Mike Perry struggling mightily with his weight cut. Be sure to pop into the Discord Chat rooms and hangout as I will be in there after weigh-ins on Saturday before lock to provide updates and answer questions. Discord will be important this week after the main event getting cancelled, we may have changes to the card so check it out! These are my thoughts upon watching tape and evaluating numbers. Good luck let’s take down a GPP and WinDaily.
