Mitchell Thoennes 
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 11/14
Welcome to my breakdown of UFC Fight Night 11/14 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. We have an interesting fight card to break down with two later additions to the card with Paul Felder now fighting Rafael Dos Anjos and Brendan Allen facing Sean Strickland. Allen and Strickland are fighting each other on short notice after Allen’s fight against Hienisch was cancelled due to covid last week. This card will present twelve total fights with seven preliminary fights and the main card containing five fights. I will breakdown my three favorite fights on this twelve fight slate looking to get fights that won’t go the distance. Let’s dive into this exciting card on DraftKings with the main event of Paul Felder going toe to toe with Rafael Dos Anjos.
Felder vs Dos Anjos
I will likely have 100% of this fight as I do believe Dos Anjos returning to Lightweight will be greatly beneficial to him as he’s a former champion in this weight class. Dos Anjos is the favorite in this fight at -200. This weekend I will have ten UFC DraftKings lineups with Dos Anjos likely in seven of the ten, let me tell you why. In a podcast shortly after accepting the fight Felder said he was in the 170’s as far as weight and only 5 days to get it done. He also said he wasn’t really looking to fight, and hasn’t been doing as much UFC as he is focusing on doing a triathlon. That will likely take a toll on Felder in this five round bout facing a fighter like Dos Anjos that could take this fight to the mat and look for a submission. Just wanted to mention my main event thoughts as it will not be included in my three favorite fights of the card. Now it is time to get into our favorite three round fights with my favorite fights for this fantastic card.
Brendan Allen ($7,900) vs Sean Strickland ($8,300)
This fight is a fight of the night contender before the first bell even rings. Allen was slated to fight Ian Hienisch last weekend but that fell thru so he took a fight against Strickland on just a week notice. Although Hienisch and Strickland aren’t the same fighter I believe they are very similar in fight style. I feel Allen has had some sort of a fight camp for this fight unlike Strickland being Strickland wasn’t slated to fight just a week ago. Allen has been amazing since joining the UFC in large part thanks to his grappling and wrestling.
Strickland’s previous two losses have come against great grapplers with black belts in Jiu Jitsu. Now he moved up a weight class in his return to the octagon and facing a grappler in a higher weight class with a black belt in Jiu Jitsu could take a toll on his stamina. If this fight does stay on the feet Strickland would have the advantage, but he will need to rely heavily on his takedown defense for that to occur.
Selection – Brendan Allen ($7,900) 2nd round Submission
Alex Morono ($8,900) vs Rhys McKee ($7,300)
First, I want to start by saying don’t look at McKee’s last fight against the new UFC star Khamzat Chimaev. He took his UFC debut against Chimaev who has a fight set up against a top five contender. If we take a look at McKee he is a powerful striker which shows as all ten of his wins have come inside the distance. In his last fight he did show a clear lack of wrestling ability. I know it was Chimaev but McKee looked lost and showed zero hope to escape or accumulate any type of offense. Luckily his opponent Alex Morono has yet to record a successful takedown according to UFC stats.
Looking at Morono he is light and quick on his feet and likes to bounce in and out of range. That didn’t work last time out against a striker in Khaos Williams as he didn’t clear the left hook of Williams on his way out of striking distance. The striking ability and six inch reach advantage of McKee will catch Morono on his way out of striking distance for the second consecutive fight.
Selection – Rhys McKee ($7,300) 1st round KO/TKO
Don’tale Mayes ($9,000) vs Roque Martinez ($7,200)
Mayes is coming into this fight having faced two opponents that took him to the ground and worked him. He showed an extraordinary tough chin in those two fights take massive shots and staying in the fight. He has come into this fight much leaner and heavier, he feels that should help his takedown defense at Heavyweight. I agree with him depending on the fighter but with Martinez coming in light at 244 pounds it could be tough for him to get a takedown. That shows in Vegas as Mayes is a -255 favorite.
Martinez doesn’t impress me on tape, people say he’s quick for his size, but I think he’s heavy on his feet at times, that will allow Mayes to utilize his leg kicks effectively. UFC competition is much tougher than what he has seen in the RFF and Martinez will learn that for a second straight fight. Mayes holds height and reach advantage of nine inches, which is a noteworthy number. If Mayes can avoid a takedown and make this a striking affair as I believe he will, early leg kicks will allow Mayes to turn out the lights upstairs for Martinez in the late first round.
Selection – Don’tale Mayes ($9,000) 1st round KO/TKO
MORE
Antonio Arroyo – ($7,700) GPP Value
Geraldo de Freitas – ($7,500) GPP Value
Rafael Dos Anjos – ($8,800) Main
Closing Thoughts
Thank you for reading my UFC Fight Night 11/14 breakdown, it is a tricky card with the main event falling out late. Evidence of this slate being tricky is you can investigate the Vegas Odds as most of these fights are awfully close. This is an extremely interesting fight card with a lot of these fights being close in skill set. I will be making ten lineups, having 100% exposure to the fights above. I feel as ownership could be spread out this week with several awesome close fights on the slate this week. I will be in the Discord Chat before lineup lock or you can find me on Twitter @MitchellThoenn1. Good luck and never forget to WinDaily!
