Mitchell Thoennes 
Last week’s card was absolute fireworks having many early finishes occur. For this week’s UFC Fight Night Breakdown, I would expect a decline in early finishes. We have a smaller card this Saturday as we have eleven fights to choose from. If the trend continues, we will lose one of these fights later in the week which makes Discord Chat important. This week’s largest favorite on the card is Angela Hill who is a –370 favorite in Vegas. However, the highest-priced fighter on DraftKings is Magomed Ankalaev at $9,300 and a –355 favorite. Our main event on this card will be between two rising heavyweight contenders in Ciryl Gane and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
In this article, I will look to breakdown my three favorite fights that have the best odds to finish early or score high based upon my research. I will also breakdown this week’s Heavyweight main event. For this article, I will be referring to DraftKings pricing. Time to dig into this week’s top three fights to target!
UFC Fight Night Breakdown Gane vs Rozenstruik
Ciryl Gane ($9,000) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik ($7,200)
We have a fun main event that I am confident will not hear the final bell. Each of these fighters only has one fight that has gone the distance. Both fighter’s most recent fight was against Junior Dos Santos and both secured second-round knockouts. Looking at Rozenstruik we get a fighter with massive one-punch power to turn anyone’s lights out in a flash. He loves to strike and has the striking advantage there in my eyes. If Gane goes for a takedown we see a solid takedown defense from Rozenstruik at 75%.
Gane has looked great in his first four UFC fights all victories three of which ended before the final bell. Gane has had impressive striking numbers with a +3.66 striking ratio due to his 75% strike defense. The only fight Gane has gotten a takedown was against Don’tale Mayes where he recorded three. This fight against these two Heavyweights will be amazing. I will have 100% exposure to this fight but will be at 50% Gane and 50% Rozenstruik.
Nikita Krylov ($6,900) vs Magomed Ankalaev ($9,300)
These two fighters should bring excitement to the Co-main event. Krylov has a record of 27-7 with only one win and one loss needing the judge’s scores. I am surprised with the salaries here, Krylov is no joke with his +2.09 striking numbers. His strike defense of 41% is my main concern here. He does have knockouts via kicks as well and I think he can keep Ankalaev at his distance if he wants. Ankalaev’s only loss came by submission and Krylov is averaging 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
There is a good reason for the hype train behind Ankalaev as he has won five straight with four of those by way of knockout. He has two straight first-round knockouts and five of his six UFC fights have ended early. Ankalaev has impressive striking numbers as well with a +2.22-strike landed to absorbed ratio. That strike defense is much better than Krylov’s at 68%. He should avoid the majority of Krylov’s takedown attempts with his takedown defense of 85%. I will be backing the second largest betting favorite on this card in Ankalaev.
Selection – Magomed Ankalaev ($9,300) 1st round KO
Kevin Croom ($7,400) vs Alex Caceres ($8,800)
Each of these fighters enters this fight with twelve losses and both have been finished in eight of those losses. We will start with Croom as he did get an impressive first-round victory in his last fight before having it overturned due to a positive marijuana test. Croom enters this bout with 10 submission finishes and Caceres has been finished by submission in seven of his losses. The striking for Croom is shown in his last fight with an early knockdown of Roberts before the Guillotine finish.
Lately, Caceres striking has improved in my eyes throwing more combinations. He does carry a +1.24-striking ratio in his UFC career in large part due to 65% strike defense. Caceres does not have that one much knockout power. He pumps out those jabs and looks to set up his combinations. Neither fighter has faced fierce competition but I give the edge to Caceres in that department. The salary of Caceres makes this an easy decision for me, I will take Croom and his ten submissions.
Selection – Kevin Croom ($7,400) 2nd round submission
Montana De La Rosa ($7,800) vs Mayra Bueno Silva ($8,400)
These fighters both struggle on their feet and with striking. Start with De La Rosa who carries a -.35-strike ratio to go along with a lousy 35% strike accuracy. De La Rosa holds her hands low and punches just to set up the takedown and forces takedown attempts. She will throw out punches and look desperate for a takedown look at the 30% takedown accuracy to see she is not extraordinarily successful at it. With eight of her 11 wins coming by submission, she has shown once she gets it to the mat it could be game over.
It will be tough to get Bueno Silva to the mat and even if De La Rosa does that the mat is Silva’s strong suit as well. Bueno Silva comes into this bout with a –2.3 striking ratio, the majority of that came from one fight though. The other three fights on the UFC record all finished in the first round by submission. Silva has shown good defensive grappling as her two UFC wins by submission came without her recording a takedown. The near two submission attempts per 15 minutes are standing out for Silva as well.
Selection – Mayra Bueno Silva 2nd round Submission
Honorable Mentions
Sabina Mazo – ($8,900)
Ramazan Kuramagomedov – ($8,300)
Maxim Grishin – ($7,700)
Thiago Moises – ($7,500)
UFC Fight Night Breakdown Gane vs Rozenstruik
Final Thoughts
That will wrap It up for this eleven-fight card and UFC Fight Night Breakdown Blaydes vs Lewis. Discord Chat is extremely important for UFC as we had two fights canceled after weigh-ins and one canceled during the fighter’s walkout. The WinDaily staff and I hang out in discord and break any news that arises or answering any questions you may have. I will be in Discord after weigh-ins on Friday and Saturday afternoon until slate lock. Magomed Ankalaev is the highest-priced fighter on DraftKings and will be my highest-owned fighter. Check out our other UFC and NBA articles for tonight and watch your screen turn green! Enjoy your last weekend of February!
