Matt Vecchio 
UFC Fight Night Breakdown: Edwards vs Muhammad
We are back for a thirteen-fight UFC Fight Night card with Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad headlining the event. This week’s main card will consist of six fights while the prelims will carry the other seven. Our highest-priced fighter on DraftKings this week is Angela Hill who is also the largest betting favorite at –375 currently. Last week was tough for me because my highest-owned fighter was Petr Yan and well, he got disqualified. Another surprise came last week as all scheduled bouts stayed together. That has been a rarity as of late so be sure to pop in the Discord Chat rooms to stay updated on the latest news. Our WinDaily staff members including myself will be in there to answer questions and keep you updated on all situations.
For my article, I will be referring to DraftKings pricing. This week we will breakdown the Main Event on the evening Edwards vs Muhammad. After that, it is time for my top three fights that I believe have a great chance to end early to maximize value. Time for this week’s picks and hopefully a better result Saturday night!
UFC Fight Night Breakdown: Edwards vs Muhammad
Belal Muhammad ($7,200) vs Leon Edwards ($9,000)
The first thing I want to note here is that Muhammad will be without his head coach in the corner this weekend as he tested positive for Covid. If I’m being honest, I don’t love this main event. Edwards has been in two main events in his last three fights scoring 68.4 and 99.1 fantasy points in those victories. His strikes landed per minute are also down at 2.53. He will sit and pick his shots but doesn’t have that electric power, if he were to get a finish, I think it’s because he picks Muhammad apart. The three takedowns and control time against a great grappler like Rafael Dos Anjos were impressive to me as well.
The week hasn’t started well for Muhammad as I mentioned and he was already the underdog. He is nearly doubling his opponent in strikes landed at 4.86. Edwards is the best opponent Muhammad has faced to this point in his career in my eyes. If his strike defense can stay at 60% against a talented fighter I will be impressed. I think the step-up will be tough for Muhammad this time around I will have about 70% of this fight with 50% of that on Leon Edwards.
Ryan Spann ($7,900) vs Misha Cirkunov ($8,300)
These two fighters are extraordinary to watch with excellent finishing potential. We see Cirkunov come in with 20 career fights and only two going the distance. He is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has shown in by submitting his opponent in the first round in his last two wins. He does contain a positive strike ratio of +1.29 and a great strike defense of 62%. Let’s just cut to the chase, Cirkunov has appeared in the UFC nine times all of which ended early and just two of those fights went past round 1.
Spann has twenty-four fights in his career with only five of those hearing the final bell. In his last fight, Spann was knocked out in round one by Johnny Walker. Spann did however score two knockdowns in that first round. Walker also knocked out Cirkunov in round one two fights ago for Cirkunov. Entering this bout Spann carries a strike ratio of -.15. The Guillotine submission from Spann is something Cirkunov will have to watch out for. It worries me that Cirkunov has been out for about a year and a half but his black belt should allow him to be successful here.
Selection – Misha Cirkunov ($8,300) 1st round submission.
Ray Rodriguez ($7,000) vs Rani Yahya ($9,200)
Yahya enters this bout as one of the largest favorites on the card at –300. He contains a second-degree black belt in BJJ and that shows with 20 of his 26 wins coming via submission. We see more proof as he averages nearly a takedown each round at 2.86 takedowns per 15 minutes. It is unlikely he wins this with striking with his 1.59 strikes landed per minute. He looks to mainly work his BJJ and that should be in his favor in this matchup.
Rodriguez has the last two straight and was submitted in round one in his UFC debut (last fight). We also see him having been finished three times by submission in his career. His takedown defense in his two UFC stat recorded fight is 40%. He has an awful strike ratio of –4.49 in those two fights as well. This will be another tough test for the young Rodriguez and I think he still has a lot to learn and work on.
Selection – Rani Yahya ($9,200) 1st round submission
Gavin Tucker ($7,600) vs Dan Ige ($8,600)
This fight is my favorite fight on the card and I believe it can be high scoring even if it goes the distance. Dan Ige’s last fight was a five-round bout against Calvin Kattar in which he lasts all five rounds. He is a good striker with fast hands but lacks tremendous power, evidence of that with only three knockouts in 18 wins. Ige does contain a black belt in BJJ but failed to record a takedown on nine attempts against Kattar. His two wins before the Kattar fighter were both questionable split decision wins in my eyes.
Tucker’s last fight was a great win over Billy Quarantillo and the two wins before that were third-round submissions. In that fight, I thought Tucker set up his takedowns well which allowed him to record seven of them. Much like Ige, Tucker has his black belt in BJJ. Tucker’s striking is also a well-rounded look at his previous two fights especially against Jaynes where he doubled Jaynes’ output. In my mind, Ige will be the toughest opponent that Tucker has faced to this point. Both fighters have excellent cardio and should be able to duel all 15 minutes if necessary.
Selection – Gavin Tucker ($7,600) 3rd round submission
UFC Fight Night Breakdown: Edwards vs Muhammad
Honorable Mentions:
Nasrat Haqparast – ($9,400)
Manel Kape – ($8,700)
Matthew Semelsberger – ($8,400)
Marcelo Rojo – ($7,100)
Final Thoughts UFC Fight Night Breakdown
This will be a fun card thirteen fight card that has already seen changes occur to it. The bout between Philipe Lins and Ben Rothwell is scratched being replaced by Nasrat Haqparast vs Rafa Garcia. Remember to join the WinDaily staff and me in Discord to stay updated on the latest news. You will find me in there after weigh-ins on Friday and throughout the day until the slate lock on Saturday. I will be going lighter than last week with lineups again saving for an amazing UFC 260 card later this month. I hope you enjoyed this week’s edition of UFC Fight Night breakdown and I appreciate you reading. Would have been a nice week if it weren’t for Petr Yan last week but let’s bounce back and turn those screens green! Good Luck!
