Mitchell Thoennes 
What an amazing main event last week for the Welterweight title between Usman and Burns. Usman showed why he is the champion after recovering early to win in round three. For this week’s UFC Fight Night Breakdown, we will have a Heavyweight main event of Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis. We are currently scheduled for a massive fifteen-fight card this weekend! Lately, in MMA we have had at least one cancellation it seems per week. Currently, the largest betting favorite at –440 and the highest priced fighter on DraftKings is Curtis Blaydes.
In this article, I will be breaking down four fights in total. First, I will cover the main event before covering my three favorite fights that are likely to end early this weekend. There are fifteen fights scheduled, even if some get scratched, we should still have enough fights to be different in some areas. A massive fight card awaits us this weekend so let’s start the breakdown!
UFC Fight Night Breakdown Blaydes vs Lewis
Curtis Blaydes ($9,400) vs Derrick Lewis ($6,800)
Originally this bout was scheduled for back in December now we get to see it finally occur. Blaydes has opened the week as the betting favorite and remains that way moving to a –450 favorite. The numbers are all in favor of Blaydes in this bout as he is better in every statistical category other than takedown defense. He sets up his takedowns with his striking and is averaging nearly seven takedowns per 15 minutes. He enters this fight on a four-fight win streak. The gas tank shouldn’t be an issue, as his last fight was the main event that went all five rounds.
Lewis enters this clash with his three-fight winning streak. His volume is concerning to me as in those three fights his largest output was 35 significant strikes. That doesn’t set up well for his strike defense that is tied for lowest on the card at 44%. That was in his fight against Oleinik that ended in round two as well. In two of those fights, Lewis was taken down three times meaning Blaydes shouldn’t struggle to land his takedowns. I will have 70% Blaydes and 30% Lewis simply due to the massive salary relief he offers.
Patrick Sabatini ($7,300) vs Rafael Alves ($8,900)
Each of these fighters will be making their UFC debut in this fight. Both fighters attain black belts in Jiu-Jitsu as well. If we look at Alves we see that he does have power but won’t throw a high volume usually. His takedown defense is fantastic and will get a grasp for a Guillotine choke if given the chance. Of Alves’ 19 wins he has finished seven fighters by both submission and knockout. What concerns me is his gas tank if he misses his power shots, we see this in his losses as all nine have resulted in Alves being finished early.
Sabatini is taking this fight on just eight days’ notice. I would say Sabatini is the more technical striker and lands his shots straight down the center. We see less power in thirteen wins he has two knockouts with nine submissions. Sabatini does switch up his stances and will be able to give Alves some different looks while standing. It is going to be tough on just eight days’ notice to beat anyone in the UFC especially in your debut. This is an awesome fight that should bring fireworks between two new arrivals. I think Alves tries to keep this on the feet for the first round and use his power to avoid the blackbelt vs blackbelt situation.
Selection – Rafael Alves ($8,900) 1st round KO
Phillip Hawes ($8,200) vs Nassourdine Imavov ($8,000)
Both of these fighters will be entering their second career UFC fight and each carrying a 9-2 record. Let’s start with Hawes who has had every fight of his career end early while recording seven knockouts and two submission wins. He has three fights registered in UFC stats and owns a -.67-strike landed to absorbed ratio. That doesn’t mean he lacks power though as he has finished three straight fights by first-round knockout.
For Imavov we only have one UFC fight for statistics so it’s tough to gauge that but he had a +2.53-strike landed to absorbed ratio. What stands out to me watching Imavov was his constant attempts to get a takedown after attempting eight in his UFC debut. Although he landed only one of those takedowns, he turned that into four submission attempts. In my opinion, Imavov is more of the dual-threat fighter in this matchup. This fight should be fun and could go for the fight of the night as the two have a combined five first-round finishes in their last three fights. This is the toughest test for both fighters and it could go either way, which should make for a hell of a fight.
Selection – Nassourdine Imavov ($8,000) 2nd round submission
Chris Daukaus ($8,600) vs Aleksei Oleinik ($7,600)
This will be a heavyweight matchup between an aged veteran of Oleinik and a newer face in Daukaus. A record of 59-14-1 shows that Oleinik has been around the block and back maybe even a few times. In those 59 wins, 46 have come by submission and 8 by knockout showing his wins typically end early. He attains a 4th-degree black belt in jujutsu and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The 2.43 takedown average per 15 minutes will be important here as I believe Oleinik holds the clear advantage on the mat in this bout.
Daukus hasn’t defended a takedown yet in his UFC career and could get worked if Oleinik gets him to the mat. The raw power and striking ability from Daukaus have been on display early in his UFC career. We see this in his +6.13-striking landed to absorbed ratio but this is his toughest opponent yet. His first two fights ended in a first-round to go with his nine career knockouts in 10 professional wins. Only one of Daukaus’ fights has gone the distance as he has been finished in all three of his losses. I will have both sides of this fight but more Oleinik. I see him wear on Daukaus and get a submission although it may not be in the first round.
Selection – Aleksei Oleinik 2nd round Submission
Honorable Mentions
Tom Aspinall – ($9,200)
Drako Rodriguez – ($8,700)
Nate Landwehr – ($8,100)
Darrick Minner – ($7,400)
UFC Fight Night Breakdown Blaydes vs Lewis
Final Thoughts
I am a huge fan of this card due to the size and opportunity to get more unique with some lineups to try and hit big. The card can easily shrink as we have seen in the past so Discord Chat is always a big part of MMA. In Discord you will find other Win Daily staff members and me, answering any questions and breaking news that may appear. I will specifically be in Discord after weigh in’s on Friday and Saturday afternoon up to lineup lock. We have some extremely close odds such as Landwehr vs Erosa, where both fighters sit at –115 according to Vegas Odds. This card has me interested to the point I will put in a few more lineups than usual.
Have an awesome weekend and enjoy a large UFC fight card. Thanks for reading my article Bombcarlo’s UFC Fight Night Breakdown Blaydes vs Lewis and good luck!
