UFC 256 Podcast Breakdown

UFC 256 Podcast Breakdown

The Win Daily Sports Family has you covered for UFC 256 with our Podcast Breakdown! Check out the podcast and notes below for your full breakdown of each fight. Make sure to check out our other UFC 256 Breakdown by Mitchell where he looks at his 3 favorite fights that he thinks will end early. Get ready for our UFC 256 Podcast Breakdown and don’t forget to subscribe to the Win Daily Sports Show and leave a 5 star review!

UFC 256 Podcast Breakdown Notes

Chase Hooper vs Peter Barrett

• Chase Hooper is a rising star that the UFC wanted to devote a lot of time and attention to until he lost his last fight and other stars sucked up all the spotlight (Holland, O’Malley, Chimaev)
• Chase Hooper is really young and a lot of aspects of his game are simply unpolished and I do think he will have a long tenure in the UFC and he will tighten up his game as his fight career progresses
• Luckily for Hooper they’re feeding him straight baby food, this fight shouldn’t be competitive and the line reflects that, but Hoopers weak striking could make it closer than it should be if it stays on the feet
  • That being said Hooper does have a chin so he can take some punishment if it takes him a bit to transition the fight to the ground
  • From Peter Barrett’s past fights its clear that he doesn’t have a UFC calibre ground game, once the fight gets on the ground Barrett will be less than useless
• Barrett sucks, don’t even like him as a cheap play, FanDuel has him at $8 for a reason, we’ll get to the other $8 fighter in a moment because I have some thoughts
  • My hot take, hes only in the UFC because Dana likes guys from Boston, he actually said so when signing him from the contender series

Tecia Torres vs Sam Hughes

• Not going to be a competitive fight in the slightest
• Despite the record disparity, Tecia has a long list of UFC fights and her losses are came up against some of the toughest women in the strawweight division (4/5 were strawweight champions, one of which currently is)
• This is like a college football player covering Tyreek Hill and FanDuel still thinks Sam Hughes has a better shot than Peter Barrett at $10
• Tecia Torres is an excellent fighter to lock in at $15, only issue is she’s had 16 fights and only one has not gone to the judges, Sam Hughes actually has more finishes, looking at the disparity in skill on this one I can actually see Tecia Torres winning the fight. The question is less about if she will win and more about how she will win.
• I think Tecia got really luck not to fight against Angela Hill, that could’ve easily sent Tecia down the rankings or out of the promotion altogether. Although Tecia did beat Hill in 2015, Hill is a different fighter and would’ve put a beatdown on Tecia for three whole rounds
• I am also of the belief that Iron sharpens Iron and Torres rolls with one of if not the best female fighters of all time Amanda Nunes, in her prime at American Top Team
• Sam Hughes first three fights were against fighters with 0-0 records, the three opponents combined total one fight after fighting Sam with 0 wins. Not necessarily fighting the cream of the crop

Billy Quarantillo vs Gavin Tucker

• True Pick-em fight
• Quarantillo with the natural advantage in reach and height
• Differences in the two UFC Records is negligible
• Neither a bad decision here
• Quarantillo does eat a bit too much damage but has a strong ability to utilize the counterpunch
• I’m taking Quarantillo based on my assumption is that this fight goes the distance as well, but there is value on both sides of this fight and if Tucker can come out of the gate strong I can easily see him taking control
• If you’re making more than one lineup, have shares of both of these fighters

Mackenzie Dern vs Virna Jandiroba

• Dern has next level submission skill, in her last fight against Randa Markos, a talented grappler in her own right, she dominated on the ground and Markos still got caught despite doing everything possible to escape the hold, Dern is just that textbook
• Their records are very deceptive as Dern’s strength of schedule was on a different level when compared to Jandiroba. Dern is 5-1 in the UFC and Jandiroba is 2-1.
  • Jandiroba’s loss came to a top form Carla Esparza on short notice and Dern’s loss came to one of the best UFC women’s prospects in Amanda Ribas in Dern’s first fight after coming back from Maternity leave (year and a half off)
• I haven’t seen enough in Jandiroba’s fights to prove to me that she will be able to handle the advanced Jiu-Jitsu acumen of Mackenzie Dern
  • Both these fighters are seasoned Jiu-Jitsu practioners but Dern has the more refined game and has way more weapons available looking at her finishes (Armbar, Kneebar, Omoplata, Rear Naked Choke)
• These are the kinds of fights however that are difficult to shoehorn into a DFS line, there are better options are more reasonable prices
  • Plus this has the feeling of a bad chalk play

Cub Swanson vs Daniel Pineda

• Pineda coming off a strong win off of what looked like a compromised Herbert Burns, this was not a full form Burns as he missed weight and was coming off a relatively quick 2-month turnaround (Burns was on his way to building a hype train before he got mauled)
• That being said, Pineda is a very well-rounded fighter and a BJJ Star
  • Survived having his back taken by Herbert Burns
  • Pineda has paid his dues in the regional scene after leaving the UFC and has had stellar performances against top talent, now it looks like hes polished and ready for the comeback
  • Id give Pineda a 9-fight, should’ve won stream (2 times popped for weed, 1 garbage Doctor’s stoppage)
• Cub Swanson has great power in his hands that can change the makeup of a fight but that being said
  • Swanson had a great UFC career but at this point he has lost 5 of his last 6 fights
  • He hasn’t fought in over a year
  • Swanson looked good in his last win, a decision in 2019, against a guy with questionable defence and only 5 fights
  • This appears to be one of those fights that Dana set up to cut the fat off the UFC roster
    • Cub will need to make something very special happen if he’s intent on staying in the UFC after we saw cuts from the likes of Garragori, Wyman and Romero
    • Dana said they’re looking to make 60 cuts to the UFC roster
• If this fight ends up on the ground it will be a quick night at the office for Pineda, for that reason along with the ability to stand and bang with Swanson if necessary and his very affordable price, I’ll be locking him into my lineups for Saturday night
  • Excellent DFS upside on Pineda, affordable at $16 and he hasn’t had a fight go to a decision since his last real loss in 2016 (which was split)
  • For betting I’d take this fight to not go the distance, these guys don’t have boring fights 

Junior Dos Santos vs Ciryl Gane

• I have a lot of respect for JDS but it didn’t look like the matchmakers did after booking this fight. My god what a mismatch
• Dana is clearly trying to push JDS out the door after being on a three fight decline while age is becoming more and more of a factor
  • This is a clear knockout waiting to happen and as we saw with the likes of Anderson Silva and Shogun Rua, Dana really wants to give the old garde a swansong before booting them out the door. Didn’t really work when Dana tried it with Glover Teixeira
  • Remember that Dana talked about 60 cuts to the roster
• Ciryl Gane is a huge undefeated prospect in all MMA disciplines and is 3-0 in the UFC and 13-0 in all MMA disciplines (incl. his kick boxing record)
• Ciryl moves like a middleweight and is very precise on his punches, already facing some real names in the UFC in Tanner Boser and Raphael Pessosa (when he submitted a talented grappler)
• Cigano needs a lucky flash knockout, literally his only hope, I don’t see it happening

Kevin Holland vs Ronald Souza

• By far my favourite fight on the card as a fan
• Kevin Holland is an entertaining fighter who’s stock as risen like crazy in 2020 with 4 wins in a calendar year and can make it five with a win over Jacare tomorrow
• Very close matchup and even though I lean Holland, I will have shares of both
• Souza is fighting on short notice as Holland was supposed to fight Hermansson until the fight was called off with the replacement being announced on November 30^th
  • The fight was cancelled due to Holland’s positive COVID test and that is of note
  • Jacare (41 yrs) is on the back end of his UFC career while Holland (28 yrs) is on the come up
• Two storylines for this fight: Holland KO or Jacare Sub, all depends on where this fight ends up
  • If Holland can stuff Jacare’s takedowns this will be Holland’s night to extend the hype train (Darren Stewart and Brendan Allen both took Holland down)
    • Holland stuff around 50% of takedown attempts and Jacare gets about 25% of his takedown attempts
  • Jacare was a live dog and the money that came in pushed him up to the favourite
• Holland’s decision making is sub par, which makes for entertaining fights as a fan but it can be concerning from a betting perspective because it leaves exposes him when fighting top competition
  • For Holland bettors you’ll hope he has a composed approach to this fight as he’ll tighten up his game for a run at the rankings
• I’m on Holland, this will be the fight to watch in my opinion

Renato Moicano vs Rafael Fiziev

• I’ve honestly gone back and forth a ton on this fight
• Both look very appealing, from a DFS perspective the value on Moicano is the way to go but Fiziev is a top prospect and has serious knockout power
• Moicano can throw hands too and is also a dangerous submission threat with a strong BJJ Advantage
• Moicano has faced the strong competition but his fight pace is a little concerning and he takes a while to heat up
• The longer the fight goes on, the longer I like Moicano
• I haven’t seen any convincing stuff from Fiziev on the ground
• But Moicano’s chin is of concern and the faster he can get this fight on the ground the better

Tony Ferguson vs Charles Olivera

• El Cucuy is back after a heartbreaking loss to Justin Gaethje which robbed UFC fans of the opportunity of finally seeing the continually cancelled Tony vs Khabib. Ferguson was able to show off his granite chin as he lost while he was out on his feet and had no intention of getting KO’d to Gaethje’s heavy hands
  • Ferguson had the short notice fight change after Khabib couldn’t get a visa and had to completely change the style he was competing against (Khabib the Grappler and Gaethje the power puncher)
• Olivera is in his prime at 31 years of age and is on a 7-fight win streak
  • 6/7 fights Olivera was the favourite, and in the one that he wasn’t the line was extremely close
  • Nobody on Tony’s level
  • This is Olivera largest underdog fight in over three years but despite that the line is still rather close
• Tony will need a win in order to stay in the conversation for top lightweight contenders
• Olivera is the heavy submission threat with superior BJJ skill but in my eyes this fight ends on the feet with a Tony KO
  • Tony could come in completely cracked after the fight with Gaethje and I’m concerned that this could be a Rousey v Nunes situation
• Winner of this fight could see themselves getting a lightweight title shot (per Dana White)

Deyverson Figueredo vs Brandon Moreno

• Both fighters are on quick turnarounds from UFC 255 a few weeks ago
  • The two fights were first-round fights with Figueredo finding the guillotine early on and Moreno winning with a ground and pound after Royval’s shoulder popped out
• The line on this fight isn’t close and Figueredo’s heavy hands will end Moreno’s five fight unbeaten
• I think Moreno might have the edge in every aspect
• For DFS tourney purposes, you’d usually want to take a fighter on the main event as the five round output on strikes alone is often necessary for a top score, so this is the fight you’ll want to glean from

UFC 256 Podcast Breakdown: Wrap-Up

• All around solid card, not my favourite but some intriguing fights which appeal to me as a bettor and as a fan
• I do think we’ll see Dana make some cuts soon after the card and I think some big names may be surprised to get their walking papers

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