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UFC 255 Fight Breakdown
We have a crazy UFC 255 Fight Breakdown this week as both Flyweight Titles will be on the line Saturday night at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. This card has tons of early round finish potential with the headlining event of Deiveson Figueiredo defending his Flyweight Title against Alex Perez. Our other Flyweight Title fight this weekend is on the women’s side as Valentina Shevchenko goes head to head with Jennifer Maia. Saturday’s card consists of three early prelim fights, four prelim matchups, and the main card will have five bouts including the two title fights. Reminder to head to the Discord chat rooms I will be in there with updates after weight in’s as I’m posting this article on Thursday night. I will be using DraftKings pricing for this article, but it can be used for both sites as I look for fights that will end early to maximize upside. I can’t wait to get into this amazing fight card so let’s jump in!
Valentina Shevchenko – ($9,600) vs Jennifer Maia ($6,600)
Let’s look at our first title fight on the night as Shevchenko looks to defend her title for the fourth consecutive time. Shevchenko is an amazing fighter a championship fighter plain and simple. She is only absorbing 2.12 significant strikes per minute in her UFC career. She has pretty well dominated in her title defenses, I don’t see that changing here facing Maia. Vegas would for sure agree with me as Shevchenko is a -1725 favorite which is an absurd number! She is the highest priced fighter on DraftKings so in my eyes she needs to score the most points for her to pay for her tag.
Maia is a good fighter but I don’t think she is better than Shevchenko in any aspect of the game. Maia lost to Katlyn Chookagian two fights ago and Shevchenko just finished Chookagian in the third round in her most recent title defense. I will likely be off this fight as I do see paths that Shevchenko doesn’t pay off her salary.
Deiveson Figueiredo – ($9,000) vs Alex Perez – ($7,200)
On to the second title fight and the main event of the evening as Figueiedo looks to defend his flyweight title. Figueiredo has devastating power, some would say the best in the weight class. He also has the black belt in Jiu Jitsu that shows with his seven submission finishes. His opponent Alex Perez who is replacing Cody Garbrandt has a good ground game as well averaging three takedowns per 15 minutes and recording seven submission wins in his career. Perez most impressive win was his recent knockout with two knockdowns facing Jussier Formiga. Formiga is now on a three-fight losing streak and that is Perez’s “signature win”.
Figueiredo has beaten Benavidez in two straight fights inside the distance with the more recent fight was an impressive showing. He knocked Benavidez down three times landing 35 significant strikes before ultimately getting a first round submission. Looking at the tape Figueiredo is much quicker with everything, his footwork keeps you circling and going where he wants you to. He controls the octagon and where a fighter moves. That shows as Figueirdo has the highest strike accuracy according to UFC Stats on the card. (not including fighters with one or fewer fights in the UFC) Once he smells blood in the water he goes for nasty elbows or a submission. Benavidez had yet to be submitted until Figueiredo, and Perez has been submitted in three of his five losses. I will have 100% of this fight, likely 70% Figueiredo and 30% Perez.
Louis Cosce – (9,300) vs Sasha Palatnikov – ($6,900)
Looking at the fight that leads off the evening is my first target. Louis Cosce is 7-0 with seven wins coming before the end of the first bell. Cosce is a good wrestler but an excellent striker with five of his wins coming via knockout. He had to earn his way onto the UFC scene thru Dana White’s Contender Series recording a first-round knockout there. Victor Reyna was the fighter Cosce beat on the contender series and he held a solid 11-5 professional record. Vegas currently has Cosce as a -455 favorite over Palatnikov.
Palatnikov last fought with UAE in the Middle East. His last win was against a fighter that was 5-6 in the UAE. Palatnikov hasn’t faced good UFC competition yet other than Mounir Lazzez, but he lost via knockout in the first round. That is the likely outcome again for Palatnikov as Cosce continues to roll with his first-round win streak in his UFC debut.
Selection – Louis Cosce ($9,300) 1st round KO
Juaquin Buckley – ($8,900) vs Jordan Wright – ($7,300)
Wright had a fantastic UFC debut, using a knee to open a massive gash on Ike Villanueva that ultimately led to a doctor’s stoppage. Wright is trained by a former kick boxing champion and NCAA D1 wrestler. Looking at Wright’s 11 wins, six have come by knockout and five submission. He is a finishing machine, his kickboxing and knees are nasty as we saw recently. That is where he has an advantage training with a wrestler. Buckley has yet to have a takedown attempted on him, I expect that to change in this matchup. Especially if he feels Buckley’s power early. Wright will get this to the ground and search for the neck to get one of his chokes (likely rear naked choke).
Obviously Buckley had the insane spinning back kick knockout in his last matchup that went viral. The amount of strikes in that fight were extremely close though. He has the power and finish ability, but that 32% strike accuracy in the UFC scares me some. Buckley had calculated strikes in his previous fight and looked sharp even landing a takedown. He was constantly moving forward and rattling off combinations. This fight will not go the distance and is a tough fight to predict but I will take the savings of Jordan Wright. Other than Kevin Holland, Buckley’s last loss was to Logan Storley a Bellator fighter who’s foundation style is wrestling.
Selection – Jordan Wright ($7,300) 1st round submission
Brandon Moreno – ($8,600) vs Brandon Royval – ($7,600)
First off, this could be a fight of the night contender as I love the matchup for these two. Both fighters are exceptional in Jiu Jitsu, Royval holding a blackbelt. Proof of that as Royval has eight submission finishes in his twelve wins. Out of Moreno’s seventeen professional fighting wins ten have been by submission.
Royval has a value price tag on DraftKings given he’s only a +145 underdog in Vegas. Let’s breakdown the striking aspect for these two. Watching these two in their recent fights I give Royval a slight edge as his last fight was a striking matchup with Kara France where he scored two official knockdowns. Those knockdowns came after Kara France recorded his own knockdown on his first hit. In the UFC Royval has found a way to get submission attempts as he is averaging 3.2 attempts per fifteen minutes.
Moreno holds a brown belt in Jiu Jitsu so he’s no slouch in grappling either. He has shown he is a better striker than his early UFC days, but that strike accuracy of 34% is nearly 20% less that his opponents. If we backtrack to a fight just a year ago against a great grappler in Asker Askarov, the contest resulted in a draw. Moreno has looked sharp in his two fights since then out striking both of his opponents. Those two contests resulted in decision wins for Moreno. If this fight ends early, I see Royval being the winner. Even if Royval doesn’t get a finish he has a much better path to hitting value at his price with a decision win.
Selection – Brandon Royval ($7,600) 2nd round Submission
Daniel Rodriguez – ($9,100) vs Nicolas Dalby ($7,200)
This Welterweight bout will feature a fighter that throws absolute haymakers in Daniel Rodriguez. Daniel Rodriquez in his last fight recorded three knockdowns! Not just three knockdowns in a three round fight but in the first round! He has shown the ability to pay off this price tag without a knockout as well. Two fights ago he scored 125.5 DraftKings points in a three round fight. He recorded 175 significant strikes in his brawl with Gabe Green. I’m not sure that happens again but the volume of strikes is extraordinary. D-Rod is the much better striker in this matchup and has shown he can finish a fight with a submission in an impressive win over Tim Means (facing Mike Perry on this card).
As far as Dalby not much to like here for me. He could be on his last run in the UFC with his 2-4 record, with one win being split decision. He has been knocked down in four of his last five fights in the UFC and in the fight he didn’t get knocked down in he was taken down three times. In his last four fights he has had three submission attempts while being submitted once. He gets hit more per minute than he lands, partially due to the strike accuracy a low 38%. Sounds like tons of potential for Dalby to be finished but his opposition falling just short. Dalby in my opinion hasn’t faced a fighter with this power and he was still getting knocked down. D-Rod catches Dalby early and continues by hammer fisting his way to a first-round win.
Selection – Daniel Rodriguez ($9,100) 1st round KO
MORE UFC 255 Fight Breakdown
Tim Means – GPP – ($8,000)
Kyle Daukus – GPP – ($8,800)
Maurico Rua – GPP – ($7,700)
UFC 255 Fight Breakdown Closing Thoughts
As I mentioned earlier this UFC 255 Fight Breakdown article will be up on Thursday night before weigh ins. You’ll want to make sure you check out the Discord Chat rooms on Friday after weigh ins and Saturday before lock as I will be in there to answer any questions. This is a very intriguing fight card with tons of power and early finish potential, with two fights for hardware to cap the night off. Alex Perez for example I won’t have a bunch of, but he provides value in a fight that I don’t see going the distance. If he is able to finish that fight early in a five round bout he will likely exceed value tremendously. In UFC you must take some chances especially if you look to be different from the field in the big 150K to win contest. Thank you for taking the time to read my content. Good luck this UFC 255 weekend and WinDaily.
