UCL 3/10 and 3/11 – Round of 16 – Second Leg – DFS Picks

This article focuses on UCL DFS Picks for 3/10 and 3/11 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Both sites have fairly different scoring formats. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at large.

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Tuesday UCL 3/10

Tottenham (+340) at RB Leipzig (-150) – Over 2.5 Goals (-140) – Leipzig leads 1-0 on Aggregate

Leipzig will likely be very popular as people, perhaps rightly, assume that they will finish off an injury depleted Tottenham squad at home. The projected lineup for Tuesday looks a lot better than it has generally been this season for Leipzig with star Timo Werner and Patrick Schick manning the forward slots, receiving great support from an attacking midfield trio of Emil Forsberg, Marcel Sabitzer and recently acquired Dani Olmo.

As far as the wing defenders for DraftKings, we have former Manchester City man Angelino, also acquired in January and German national team wing defender, Lucas Klostermann. In the middle of the defense, star central defender Dayot Upamecano returns for Red Bull. He is normally a terrific FanDuel play but may not be under pressure here, so not the same amount of clearances and blocked shots. Overall, they are a much better team than Tottenham so probably good chalk. I think the issue is there are a lot of guys you can play. Werner will be the most popular on FanDuel but I can see it spread out beyond that.

As far as the Tottenham side, as noted above, I think that they are outclassed here. I wouldn’t mess with them in a smaller tournament or cash game. However, given that it is only a two-game slate, you can give a Tottenham stack a shot in a larger tournament like FanDuel’s big $4.44. Dele Alli is taking the penalty kicks now and should probably be in there. Meanwhile, Giovani Lo Celso has been providing good value and if Erik Lamela is in the offers a similar skill set. Lucas Moura and Steven Bergwijn should only be 5-10% owned and can always score a goal. Spurs are probably in the worst spot of all four teams playing Tuesday, so just keep that in mind.

Atalanta (+150) at Valencia (+130) – Over 3 Goals (-135) – Atalanta leads 4-1 on Aggregate

Atalanta has a three-goal advantage coming into this, so keep in mind they could adjust to a more defensive formation and if they were to score, chances increase of key players getting subbed out earlier. That said, I don’t know if they can adjust as their mentality is normally gone, go, go. They currently sit 4th in the Serie A Table and Serie A gets four automatic qualifying spots for the Champions League, so I would think if they can score another goal or carry the current lead into the 65th minute, it would be wise for them to pull Josip Illicic, Alejandro Gomez, and Duvan Zapata, so just be careful. That said, they are so good offensively that I think they do get some ownership, at least on the UCL 3/10 one day slate. Go for it in tournaments but in cash, I would be more Leipzig heavy.

Valencia has quite a challenge ahead of them if they want to advance, already down three goals. Other than Dani Parejo, the projected lineup I have seen for them looks really strange. Valencia has slipped to 7th in the La Liga Table and has not been very inspiring. The one thing they have working for them is they will need to try to play faster and score and Atalanta is not a good defensive team. Parejo is always in play as a one-off, particularly on DraftKings, but generally like Tottenham, this is all or nothing. That said, I like them better than Tottenham if going that route for whatever’s its worth.

Wednesday UCL 3/11

Atletico Madrid (+600) at Liverpool (-250) – Under 2.5 Goals (-125) – Atletico leads 1-0 on Aggregate

The Wednesday slate is fire. I don’t know if this first game is necessarily DFS friendly outside of goalie and defender but in terms of entertainment value and importance, it is high up there. Liverpool brings their nearly three and a half year home unbeaten streak in all competitions, as Atletico Madrid looks to shut them out and pull off the massive upset. The 1-0 loss in Madrid was the beginning of some recent woes for Liverpool but this is the most important game of their season as they look to defend their Champion’s League title and I expect them to bounce back.

Mohammed Salah and Sadio Mane rank below the options from the other game on the one day slate and likely below Timo Werner and some others on the two-day slate. That said, they are definitely in play for tournaments. Roberto Firmino should be under 10% so maybe a consideration for a large field FanDuel tournament. I don’t know if I’d turn to the forwards on DraftKings but Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson are in play. TAA’s $7,300 price tag isn’t cheap but it beats the $9,200 we recently saw for him on an EPL slate. The world’s best goaltender Allison will be out injured but I think we can still turn to his backup, Adrian.

As far as Atletico goes, there is no way I am playing anything other than a cheap central defender on FanDuel, away at Anfield as a huge underdog with a slow, defensive style of play to begin with.

Dortmund (+350) at Paris St. Germain (-155) – Under 3.5 Goals (-115) – Dortmund leads 2-1 on Aggregate

For DFS, this game probably has as many good options as all of the other games combined. With Liverpool, the favorite to repeat and win the whole competition maybe this game gets a bit overshadowed but it is every bit as juicy. You have this PSG team that spent $485 million dollars just to acquire Neymar and Kylian MBappe alone. On the other side, you have Dortmund, a bit of a Cinderella story, lead by a pair of 19-year-old kids in the young g.o.a.t. Erling Haaland and Jadon Sancho.

PSG

On the PSG side, Neymar is the star in terms of DFS. MBappe is more goal dependent but that said, this a decent spot to score, considering they have the highest projected total on the board. Having Neymar in sort of steals Angel Di Maria’s thunder so he is more of a third wheel in the current setup, assuming he does start and doesn’t just come in at the 65th minute as part of some weird setup.

Recently, they have been operating with Di Maria starting and the strikers Mauro Icardi and Edinson Cavani operating off the bench. Both have been cold but can provide some contrarian savings if in, as parts of this high powered offense. However, in cash on both sites, it would be Neymar with MBappe right behind for tournaments, and everyone else more of a larger field tournament play or part of a stack.

Dortmund

On the Dortmund side, it is simply Haaland and Sancho. Haaland has averaged a goal every 45 minutes in the Champions League and every 59 minutes in the Bundesliga. That doesn’t just blow away everyone in world soccer, it’s a far faster rate of scoring goals than anyone in the NHL “Mika Zibanejad is just short of one every 80 minutes”. He was around 50% owned on FanDuel last slate and 19% on DraftKings, albeit at home. The fact he is traveling and Dortmund is a decent underdog should keep his ownership at similar if not lower levels. Haaland had two goals in the first leg and will look to add his Champion’s League-leading scoring total.

As for Sancho, he remains cheap and was extremely chalky the first time around. Considering the entire offense really runs through these two, it is not hard to capture Dortmund. While I do think PSG wins, I wouldn’t overlook soccer’s version of Shaq and Penny.

For more info…https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/

UCL 3/10 and 3/11 DraftKings Rankings (2 Day Slate)

DraftKings Forwards

1. Neymar – PSG – $12,600
2. Kylian Mbappe – PSG – $11,000
3. Timo Werner – Red Bull Leipzig – $8,900
4. Erling Haaland – Dortmund – $8,700
5. Mohammed Salah – Liverpool – $8,600
6. Delle Alli – Tottenham – $5,100

DraftKings Midfielders

1. Neymar – PSG – $12,600
2. Alejandro Gomez – Atalanta – $9,300
3. Jadon Sancho – Dortmund – $6,900
4. Marcel Sabitzer – Red Bull Leipzig – $7,900
5. Dani Parejo – Valencia – $7,200
6. Giovani Lo Celso – Tottenham– $4,700

DraftKings Defenders

1. Trent Alexander-Arnold – Liverpool – $7,300
2. Jose Gaya – Valencia – $4,600
3. Angelino – Red Bull Leipzig – $6,000
4. Andy Robertson – Liverpool – $5,600
5. Serge Aurier – Tottenham – $4,400
6. Lucas Klostermann – Red Bull Leipzig – $3,800

DraftKings Goalies

1. Adrian – Liverpool – $5,700
2. Jasper Cillessen– Valencia – $4,600

UCL 3/10 FanDuel Rankings

FanDuel Forwards/Midfielders

1. Timo Werner – RB Leipzig – $22
2. Emil Forsberg – RB Leipzig – $15
3. Joseph Illicic– Atalanta – $21
4. Alejandro Gomez – Atalanta – $19
5. Dani Olmo – RB Leipzig – $13
6. Marcel Sabitzer – RB Leipzig – $16
7. Duvan Zapata – Atalanta – $17
8. Mario Pasalic – Atalanta – $15
9. Giovani Lo Celso – Tottenham – $14
10. Dani Parejo – Valencia – $18
11. Patrick Schick – RB Leipzig – $17
12. Dele Alli – Tottenham – $16

FanDuel Defensemen

1. Jose Gaya – Valencia – $12
2. Alessandro Florenzi – Valencia – $8
3. Japhet Tanganga – Tottenham – $9
4. Jan Vertonghen – Tottenham – $9
5. Angelino – RB Leipzig – $13

FanDuel Goalies

1. Jasper Cillessen – Valencia – $9
2. Peter Gulacsi – RB Leipzig – $14

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