This article focuses on UCL DFS Picks for 2/18 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Both sites have fairly different scoring formats. We consider tournament tactics, statistics, pricing, and attempt to tackle this highly variable Daily Fantasy format so we can gain an edge on the field at large.
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Liverpool (+120) at Atletico Madrid (+220) – Under 2.5 Goals (-135)
Liverpool
Liverpool’s quest to defend their UCL Champion’s League title begins in Madrid this Tuesday. While they will be the visitors, the locale should not take much of a toll on them, as it was the very site that they first lifted the trophy back in May. The Reds will arrive fueled by the momentum of their now 43 game undefeated streak in the Premier League. Make no mistake, they should take care of business here. Buoyed by the return of Sadio Mane, this should be a well-rested and prepared squad that will be ready to pin down Atletico Madrid and force their backs to goal.
For daily fantasy purposes it will be all the usual customers, with the wingbacks Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson phenomenal DraftKings plays as usual, and the trio of forwards Mane, Mohammed Salah, and Roberto Firmino, the FanDuel considerations.
While I do think they win this UCL match, they do not have the scoring upside that Paris St. Germain has against a defensively useless Dortmund team, so I would consider their forwards to better play in tournaments “or as much as one can be on a two-game slate”. Atletico Madrid knows they cannot compete for pound for pound. Diego Simeone will likely toss out some defensive-minded formation to play for the draw/on the counter-attack, to offset this.
Atletico Madrid
As for Atletico Madrid, it has been a trying year, as they have attempted to put together the equivalent of a “competitive rebuild”. The loss of Antoine Greizmann over the offseason was softened with the acquisition of young starlet Joao Felix. However, he needs time to develop and along with striker Alvaro Morata just hasn’t received the service from the attacking midfield players that they would need to be successful in UCL matches.
Furthermore, Atleti’s traditional strength, it’s compact defense, has taken a hit as new personnel such as Kieran Trippier, have struggled to adapt to the system. There has been a lot of plugging round pegs in square holes, and in a matchup like this, there is a good chance this defense gets exposed. I don’t have any interest in attacking players from AM on either site. The only consideration I would have is one of the central defenders on FanDuel where you get points for clearances and blocked shots
UCL: Paris St. Germain “PSG” (+100) at Borussia Dortmund (+200) – Over 3 Goals (-135)
There is one thing I can say virtually for certain, this game should feature lots of goals. We have a leaky Dortmund defense facing one of the world’s elite offenses and on the other side, a Dortmund team capable of scoring their fair share, as well.
PSG
Let’s begin with PSG. It’s incredibly hard to trust this team given how disappointing they have been in this UCL competition in past years. One would have to assume that even as shorthanded as they were last year, losing to Manchester United was a nut low. I would expect them to get back on track this year, in part due to talent, as well as the fact that they have already virtually locked up France’s Ligue One. This advantage cannot be overstated as Liverpool is the only other team in a similar position, allowing PSG to rest players for UCL accordingly in domestic games.
The trio of Neymar, Kylian MBappe, and Angel Di Maria is pretty much as good as it gets. When combined with the luxury of having Mauro Icardi and Edinson Cavani available off the bench at the striker position, you have yourself a world-class offense. The defense is less than stellar but it will be hard for most teams to outscore PSG.
We will have to watch the status of Neymar for this one. If he is in, he would be my primary play on both sites but if he is out, I would likely turn to Mbappe on FanDuel and Angel Di Maria on DraftKings, although I think a two-man or even three-man stack “or four if adding the striker Icardi” makes a lot of sense and should be a popular way to go. It seems he will likely be in though as of the time of writing.
Dortmund
Moving on to Dortmund, I just have one word for you, “HAALAND”. Young English forward Jadon Sancho is one of the most talented up and coming players in the world. However, this Dortmund attack now has a legit one-two combo with the transfer window acquisition of 19-year-old wunderkind Erling Brault Haaland. Everything about this deal was a steal for a team like Dortmund, who are willing to acquiesce to certain contract demands in order to receive his goal-scoring services, particularly at a discounted price.
It is safe to say that he has not disappointed since arriving in Dortmund, scoring a hat trick off the bench his first game, with two goals off the bench the game to follow, setting a new Bundesliga record for a new arrival. All you need to know about Haaland is he just scores goals and while PSG may advance over the two legs, it is unlikely their victories come in the form of two clean sheets.
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