Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Week 5 of the NFL season starts with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers traveling to the ATL to take on the Falcons. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tends to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Running Back

• The Falcons allow 19.2 fantasy points per game to the RB 
• They have allowed one rushing TD
• They have allowed a total of 326 yards
• 20^th in DVOA against the run

The Buccaneers are inching closer to a 50/50 split for Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. That is also something that DraftKings has caught onto, separating the backs by just $400. The Falcons haven’t allowed more than one rushing TD this season. However, that can change fast. They are currently ranked 20^th in DVOA against the run, which indicates they have overperformed in that category. 

If you are looking to play the most explosive back, it is Bucky Irving via YPC. 

If you are looking to play the “starter” who is trying to save his job on a national stage, that is Rachaad White. 

I will not be playing them in the same lineup. 

Tier 2: Rachaad White, Bucky Irving

Wide Receiver

• The Falcons allow 32.7 Fantasy points per game to wide receivers
• They have allowed three receiving touchdowns to wide receivers
• 17^th in DVOA against the pass

The most expensive player on the DraftKings slate is Mike Evans. He is going to draw shadow coverage from A.J. Terrell. He has been outstanding this season with a 0.87 YPRC, but so has the Baker Mayfield to Evans connection. I am of the belief that Evans can beat any matchup, so the shadow coverage isn’t causing me to cross off Evans. That said, he is also not my favorite Buccaneers receiver. 

Chris Godwin will likely line up in the slot for the majority of his routes against Dee Alford (1.60 YPRC). I say “likely” because Sterling Shepard will be playing the WR3 role tonight due to both Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer being ruled out, and he played the slot in NY during his career. However, if you are the Tampa OC, you likely aren’t pulling Godwin away from something he has excelled at this season and sticking him on the outside just to make Shepard more comfortable. 

Shepard is only $1,600, and that is way too low. He is the easiest value click on the slate. He walked into 65% of snaps last week after Palmer went down. Kameron Johnson got himself 32% of snaps and one target, and it only cost $200. That is also some very good value for a showdown. One catch from him does the trick. 

• Tier 1: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Sterling Shepard
• Tier 2: Kameron Johnson 

Tight End

• The Falcons have allowed 12 fantasy points per game to the TE 
• They have allowed 0 touchdowns

Cade Otton is the only reliable choice. He has 17 targets over the past two weeks. That is enough to establish confidence in the $4,000 tight end when the Buccaneers are down two receivers. Payne Durham (14% snaps) is a punt option that I will likely avoid. 

• Tier 1: Cade Otton
• Punt: Payne Durham, Ko Kieft

Atlanta Falcons

Running Back

• Tampa allows 25.6 fantasy points per game to the RB
• They have allowed 3 rushing TDs
• They have given up a total of 351 rushing yards
• 17^th in DVOA against the rush

Bijan Robinson was dealing with a hamstring injury early in the week but is expected to be “good to go.” His involvement in last week’s game is worrisome. He only ran the ball seven times while catching four balls, while his backup, Tyler Allgeier, got eight touches and caught two balls. If you were to tell me it would be the same split this week, you would be crazy not to play Allgeier at exactly half the price of Robinson. However, that is not usually the case. If you look at the three games prior, Robinson out-touches Allgeier as a true RB1 should.  

Robinson is usually a solid play, especially on a showdown slate, but I can not, in good faith, say he is my favorite play on the day. He is a solid source of production, which should get you double-digit points, but I can’t claim he is my slate breaker. 

• Tier 1: Bijan Robinson 
• Tier 2: Tyler Allgeier

Wide Receiver

• Tampa allows 28.1 fantasy points per game to wide receivers
• They have allowed just one receiving touchdown to WR 
• 13^th in DVOA against the pass
• 1^st in DVOA against the WR2

Drake London is the top WR for the Falcons. He carries the highest target share (25%) for the Falcons and runs the lowest percentage (20%) of routes on the left side of the field, which is covered exclusively by the Bucs’ rising rookie corner star Zyon McCollum. London should see a mix of Jamel Dean, who allows the highest YPRC (1.25), and slot corner Tykee Smith (1.08 YPCD)

Darnell Mooney runs on the left side more than any other Falcons receiver, yet it is only 40%. That means you can not 100% avoid Mooney completely simply because he sees McCollum more than any other receiver. He will still be off him 60% of his routes. That being said, I have no choice but to prefer Ray-Ray McCloud straight up to Mooney when taking salary into account. McCloud has a slightly higher target share (18.7 compared to 17.9) and runs out of the slot for 47% of his routes. 

• Tier 1: Drake London
• Tier 2: Ray-Ray McCloud, Darnel Mooney
• Punt: KhaDarel Hodge (5% of snaps last week, fadeable)

Tight End

• Tampa has allowed 7.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends 
• They have allowed 0 touchdowns

Kyle Pitts pulled a Kyle Pitts again last week and got a big ole zero. He was targeted three times. The weeks prior were more promising as he was getting at least some production. There, unfortunately, isn’t a way to predict this guy. He is either terrible or does just enough to sneak into fantasy relevance. I can’t pretend to have a good reason to play him. If you do, you are just hoping to get lucky. 

His backup, Charlie Woerner, is only $800, and you know he will be on the field for about a third of the snaps. He is primarily used as a blocker and has only caught one 2-yard pass the entire season. 

• Tier 2: Kyle Pitts
• Punt: Charlie Woerner (fadeable)

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

• FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins
• FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Chris Godwin, Bijan Robinson
• FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Mike Evans, Drake London

• DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Chris Godwin, Drake London, Baker Mayfield
• DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Mike Evans, Bijan Robinson, Ray-Ray McCloud
• DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Cade Otton, Rachaad White

• Best Value: Ray-Ray McCloud, Sterling Shepard, Cade Otton

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Baker Mayfield
• Chris Godwin
• Sterling Shepard (based on DraftKings salary alone, not FD)
• Bijan Robinson
• Drake London
• Kirk Cousins
• Mike Evans
• Younghoe Koo
• Ray-Ray McCloud
• Cade Otton
• Rachaad White
• Bucky Irving
• Darnell Mooney
• Tyler Allgeier
• Chase McLaughlin
• Kyle Pitts
• Kameron Johnson ($200 on DraftKings is solid if he catches one ball, and you don’t leave a lot of salary on the table)

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Falcons D
• Buccaneers D

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Payne Durham (19% of snaps)
• Charlie Woerner (30% of snaps, blocker)
• Ross Dwelley (2% of snaps in Week 3)
• Casey Washington (typically doesn’t play)
• Ko Kieft (2% of snaps)

Best Rules for the slate:

I think you can get away with just optimizing the Tier 1 guys + defenses tonight. We are dealing with two condensed offenses, which is great for limiting combinations of “your guys” you can make on DraftKings and FanDuel. 

• Play at least one QB
  • Pair him with two pass catchers if he is MVP or CPT
• Play at least one Tampa WR, Sterling Shepard feels like a free square on DraftKings
• Play at least one Atlanta WR, Ray-Ray is my favorite when considering salary
• Don’t play more than one RB per team, per lineup. This feels riskier tonight, but I am still going to do it
• I am high on kickers and forcing one in most lineups. I likely limit lineups to one kicker
• I may limit my lineups to only allow one tight end; the numbers indicate that would be wise
• Don’t play more than 1 defense, if any
• Don’t play a kicker against your defense
• Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player 
• Someone has to move the ball down the field
• Don’t play more than 1 TE per team, per lineup