Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: San Fransico 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Week 6 of the NFL season starts with the San Fransico 49ers traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. Check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article for a deeper dive into my general showdown rules. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I tend not to write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

San Francisco 49ers

Running Back

• Seattle allows 23.4 fantasy points per game to RB
• They have allowed 553 rushing yards and four rushing TDs
• They are ranked 10^th in DVOA against the rush

The 49ers are going to be pretty easy to break down. Jordan Mason is the clear top option for their running game. The only thing that gives me pause is that he is the single most expensive player on the DraftKings slate. His backup, Isaac Guerendo, played 14% of snaps last week and got five carries. The only way Guerendo is relevant is if Mason gets injured. 

Kyle Juszczyk is on the field 63% of snaps and usually gets the ball in his hands a couple of times. At a price tag of $1,400, he will still have to score. It isn’t impossible, but it isn’t likely. He is still probably the best “punt” on the 49ers, but that is just because hardly anyone touches the ball besides the Big 5.

• Tier 1: Jordan Mason 
• Punts: Kyle Juszczyk, Issac Guerendo

Wide Receiver

• They allow 28.5 fantasy points per game to the position
• They have allowed five receiving touchdowns all season
• They are ranked 12^th in DVOA against the pass
• 18^th against WR1, 17^th against WR2, 26^th against WR3

Deebo Samuel is my favorite receiver for the 49ers. He draws the most favorable primarily matchup against a combination of Tre Brown and slot corner Devon Weatherspoon. Jauan Jennings is going to be my second preference. He runs out of the slot 58% of the time and is half the price of Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk was force-fed targets last week, but that is something we have learned we can not count on him for every week. I know typically the coverage would benefit Aiyuk here, but I just can’t prefer him over Samuel. It is very close so if you are feeling Aiyuk I can’t really talk you off it. 

Chris Conley is questionable. He would be the WR4 if active. That would give him anywhere from 12%-40% of snaps, depending on how the 49ers run the offense. He is not a reliable option and would be lucky to get more than one target. The same could be said for Ronnie Bell, who would slide into the WR4 role if Conley is ruled out. Jacob Cowing wouldn’t see the field if both receivers were active. 

• Tier 1: Deebo Samuel
• Tier 2: Jauan Jennings, Brandon Aiyuk
• Punt: Chris Conley (Questionable), Ronnie Bell 

Tight End

• Seattle has given up 11.9 fantasy points per game to the position without allowing a single touchdown. 

George Kittle will get all the run here, and he is the cheapest 49ers stud on the board. He has a touchdown in his last three games, not that that means anything for this matchup. If you are jamming in 49ers, which you should be, if you don’t end with a lot of Kittle, you are building wrong. 

Eric Saubert is his backup and is virtually out of the passing game with Kittle healthy. 

• Tier 1: George Kittle
• Punt: Eric Saubert

Seattle Seahawks

Running Back

• The 49ers allow 22 fantasy points per game to the RB
• They have given up 430 rushing yards and three rushing TDs
• They are ranked 17^th in DVOA against the rush

Kenneth Walker will get the lion’s share of carries while also being utilized in the passing game. In every game he has been active in this season, he would have hit the optimal in a showdown lineup. He is my favorite running back on the slate.

Zach Charbonnet stands out here as his salary has dropped to $3,400. I know he will just get a few carries, but he is used in the passing game enough at that salary to pay off. He has been averaging six touches (rush/pass) the past two games with Walker back, and that is plenty to take a shot on at that salary with his big play upside. This is one instance of understanding salary and condensed offenses where I wouldn’t be opposed to Walker and Charbonnet overlapping in some lineups.

• Tier 1: Kenneth Walker
• Tier 2: Zach Charbonnet

Wide Receiver

• The 49ers are ranked 4^th in DVOA against the pass
• They allow 29.6 fantasy points per game to the position
• They have allowed four receiving touchdowns all season 
• 8^th against WR1, 30^th against WR2, 1^st against WR3

Jaxson Smith-Njigba runs 86% of his routes out of the slot. That will be occupied by the 49er’s best cover corner this season, Deommondore Lenoir, who is allowing just 0.68 YPRC. 

The perimeter is where the Seahawks, who play their third game in just ten days, should be able to beat the coverage at a higher rate. The YPRC rates on the left and right are virtually identical, so let’s lean into who has been better between D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf has a higher target share (20.1%) and higher YPRR (2.01). He is your guy. 

Laviska Shenault and Jake Bobo hardly play. They both get about one target per game. I think you can fade them and hope they just don’t house their only target against the 49ers.  

• Tier 1: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
• Tier 2: JSN

Tight End

• The 49ers allow 8.5 fantasy points to the position per game
• They have allowed two recieving TDs 

This might be the position that wins it all. You can beat the 49ers in the middle of the field with short passes, and the Seahawks have three tight ends that are involved enough for a showdown. Noah Fant is the leader in route participation and snaps (89%). A.J. Barner (26% of snaps) and Pharaoh Brown (14% of snaps) live to get a target or two, much like the backup receivers. 

If a weird guy wins someone $500K tonight, it is likely one of the Seattle “scrubs.”

• Tier 1: Noah Fant
• Tier 2: A.J. Barner, Pharaoh Brown

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

• FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Kenneth Walker, Jordan Mason
• FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Brock Purdy, Geno Smith
• DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Kenneth Walker, Jordan Mason
• DraftKings CPT Tier 2: D.K. Metcalf, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel 
• DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Tyler Lockett, Brandon Aiyuk, JSN – more of a Milly Maker tier

Best Value: Zach Charbonnet, Noah Fant

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Kenneth Walker
• Jordan Mason
• Brock Purdy
• Geno Smith 
• D.K. Metcalf
• George Kittle 
• Deebo Samuel
• Tyler Lockett
• Jauan Jennings 
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Jason Myers
• Jackson Smith-Njibga
• Zach Charbonnet 
• Noah Fant
• Matthew Wright (concerned with the range they give him for attempted FG)
• 49ers D
• Seattle D

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Kyle Juszczyk
• Laviska Shenault
• A.J. Barner
• Chris Conley (Q), Ronnie Bell
• Isaac Guerendo
• Pharaoh Brown
• Jake Bobo
• Eric Saubert

Flex Rankings TIer 3:

• Jacob Cowing
• Jake Tonges

Best Rules for the slate:

SF is a very condensed offense. There is nobody to get “cute” with there. The same is true for SEA, with only a few more wrinkles. Your primary LU builds should just be with the core 49ers and Seahawks skill players. Once you have optimized them, you can add in some Tier 2 punts. 

• Play at least one QB
  • Pair him with two pass catchers if he is MVP or CPT
  • Pair him with at least one pass catcher if he is in the flex
• Play at least one RB, Mason, Walker, Charbonnet
• Play at least one: Mason, Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle
  • It isn’t a bad idea to force two in some lineups and add Jennings to the mix.
• Play at least one. Walker, Metcalf, Lockett, JSN
• Don’t play more than one SF RB per team. I don’t mind Walker and Charbonnet in the same lineup if you are fading Geno.
• Matthew Wright scares me. I will be underweight 
• Don’t play more than 1 defense, if any
• Don’t play more than 1 kicker
• Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player
  • Someone has to move the ball down the field
• Don’t play more than 1 TE per team, per lineup