Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Week 12 of the NFL season starts with the Steelers traveling to Cleveland to take on the Browns. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link To Strategy Article: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:
I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end sections cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Weather Note: Rain and snow are likely (seems like it should be one or the other but I am not a meteorologist). Sustained winds from 10-15 MPH

Pittsburgh Steelers 

Running Back

• CLE gives up 18.9 DK points per game to the position (8^th fewest) 
• They have allowed 9 rushing TDs and no receiving TDs

Najee Harris will probably be making my main lineup. I don’t love the spot, but I want to roster a RB, and he is the most reliable one on the slate, I think. The Browns run D has been good, but there are no soft spots to attack this slate so I am just going to have to bite the bullet and play some volume guys hoping they hit. 

Jaylen Warren should be solid as well at $6,200 given the game script leads to more running. He is averaging over 10 touches per game the past month, while also being used in the pass game. He is steadily putting up quality fantasy outings for a showdown slate (at his salary) while having not scored. He is one guy I want to be overweight to and may even run a few CPT lineups with him. 

Cordarrelle Patterson is a punt option, considering the salary. He will operate as the RB3 with a couple of designed runs. He is only $1,000 on DraftKings.

• Tier 1: Najee Harris
• Tier 2: Jaylen Warren
• Punt: Cordarrelle Patterson 

Wide Receiver

• CLE allows 37.3 DK points per game to the position (8^th most)
• They have allowed 12 receiving TDs (tied for 6^th most)

Attacking the Browns secondary is the best spot to target on the slate. George Pickens moves all over the field while drawing by far the most targets. The Pittsburgh plan is to scheme him open. He leads the team with a 26% target share, 2.53 YPRR, and 13.5 air yards per route run. 

Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin are the same player. Van Jefferson has been on the field more, running cardio, while Austin has drawn more targets. Pretty tough to rank these two but I will point out they are both firmly in play at $2,800 or less on DraftKings. That seems like a low price to pay to me. 

Mike Williams got up to 32% of snaps last week, while Ben Skowronek (gross) got to 26% of snaps. Williams went without a target while Ben Skow caught his only target. They are both punts going up against a beatable Browns secondary. 

• Tier 1: George Pickens
• Tier 2: Calving Austin, Van Jefferson

• Punts: Mike Williams, Ben Skowronek (I will be low here), Scotty Miller (losing time lately, 9% of snaps last week, while not having a catch since Week 3)

Tight End

• CLE allows 14.4 DK points to the position per game
• They have given up 2 receiving TDs

Pat Freiermuth should be more than $3,600 on DraftKings. The Browns don’t give up a lot of touchdowns to the position, but they do allow catches and chunk yardage. 

Darnell Washington is playing just as much as Freiermuth lately (56% of snaps last game) and has shown some connection with Wilson. It is always encouraging to see who Wilson will throw too because he typically goes back to his “guys”. Washington is one of those guys, and you can tell if you watch the games. 

• Tier 1: Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington 
• Punts Connor Heyward, MyCole Pruitt (hard to tell who will out snap who but neither are great options)

Cleveland Browns 

Running Back

• PIT allows 18.8 DK points per game to the position
• They have allowed 8 rushing and 1 receiving TD to backs

Nick Chubb got only 30% of snaps last week, but we have come to learn this may have been in preparation for the short week playing on Thursday. I would expect a season high snap percentage from him tonight, which would be over 61% he saw in Week 8. The Steelers are tough to run on so with Chubb’s salary of $9,000 on DraftKings, he is still going to have to get in the box. 

The weather could lead to more running opportunities for both teams in the early portion of the game. Jerome Ford will be the second option here. Last week he saw 50% of snaps (5 carries, 4 targets) against a tough Baltimore defensive line. His salary doesn’t give him much room for error. I am not that interested but in MME I will have some. He is not a main lineup guy. 

• Tier 2: Nick Chubb
• Tier 3: Jerome Ford
• Punt: Pierre Strong (simply if the Browns lean into the run game more, and as a hedge if Chubb or Ford gets injured)

Wide Receiver

• PIT allows 29.7 DK points per game to the position (8^th fewest) 
• They have allowed 5 receiving TDs

Winston is just going to throw it to whoever he thinks is open. There are no individual matchups that stick out here as the Steelers are pretty even across the board with their receiver coverage. If I have to give the slightest edge to someone it would be Elijah Moore who runs 65% of his routes out of the slot, which is allowing a touch more yards per route covered than the outside. 

Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy are in identical spots. One week it is Tillman and the next it is Jeudy. I do not have an answer for who is the preferred play here, if any. My advice would be make one lineup with Tillman and make one with Jeudy. I don’t think excluded that two from the same lineup is the worst idea. 

• Tier 1: Elijah Moore
• Tier 2: Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy
• Punt: Jamar Thrash 
• Fadeable but might see the field: Jaelon Darden 

Tight End

• PIT gives up 11.4 DK points per game to the position
• They have allowed 3 receiving TDs

David Njoku is one of my favorite Browns. The weather may lead to shorter passes (for the tight end and slot receivers). In three of the last 4 games, you would have needed to roster him on your showdown lineup. He has Winston’s trust so that is enough for me. 

Jordan Akins is the only other active TE for the Browns as of writing this. He is pretty sneaky at a $1,600 price tag. Winston has thrown him 4 targets in both of the last two games. That is plenty on a showdown slate at that salary. He only played 22% of snaps last week, but that was enough to draw some targets. 

• Tier 1: David Njoku
• Good Punt: Jordan Akins

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

• FanDuel MVP Tier 1: George Pickens, Russell Wilson 
• FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Najee Harris, Jameis Winston 
• FanDuel MVP Tier3: Nick Chubb

I prefer using the receivers on DraftKings.  

• DraftKings CPT Tier 1: George Pickens
• DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Russell Wilson, Najee Harris 
• DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, CLE WRs

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• George Pickens
• Russell Wilson
• Najee Harris
• Jameis Winston
• Nick Chubb
• David Njoku
• Elijah Moore
• Pat Freiermuth (too cheap)
• Cedric Tillman 
• Jerry Jeudy
• Chris Boswell 
• Dustin Hopkins
• Jaylen Warren
• Steelers D
• Calvin Austin (too cheap)
• Van Jefferson (too cheap)
• Darnell Washington (good “punt”)
• Jordan Akins (good “punt”)
• Jerome Ford
• CLE D

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Cordarrelle Patterson 
• Jamar Thrash
• Pierre Strong

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Connor Heyward
• MyCole Pruitt
• Jaelon Darden 

Best Rules for the slate:

• Play at least one RB
• Play at least one Steelers pass catcher (Pickens is highly preferred and might get the lock button)
• Lock in at least one QB
• Long kicks may be more difficult tonight, tread with caution
  • The way skill players are priced tonight I don’t think you have to jam a kicker into 100% of lineups
• Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense 
• Don’t play more than 2 Browns receivers 
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player (I am not forcing a kicker)
  • Someone has to move the ball down the field
• Don’t play more than 1 TE, per team, per lineup 
• Don’t play more than 1, Patterson, Skowronek, Miller, Heyward, Pruitt, Strong, Thrash, Darden