Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams

Week 8 of the NFL season starts with the Minnesota Vikings traveling to LA to take on the Rams. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to
win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check
out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s
essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can
impact each game’s approach.

Link To Strategy Article: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:
I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to
cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Minnesota Vikings

Running Back

• The Rams allow 25.6 fantasy points to running backs per game
• They are ranked 26^th in DVOA against the run 
• They have allowed 6 rushing TDs
• They have allowed the 12^th most yards on the ground

The numbers are telling us we need to invest heavily in the Vikings offense. Aaron Jones is going to be a key piece. This is a guy who tends to show up in Primetime games, in a Sombrero, and do enough to make an optimal lineup. I will make plenty of Jefferson, Jones, and Darnold stacks. Jones is a main lineup kind of guy. 

Ty Chandler backed up Jones and played 18% of snaps, in a close game last week. In blowout games, he will should have the opportunity to run out the clock. He is a decent punt. Cam Akers should only get in if it is a major blowout. I probably fade him. 

Let’s hope we don’t get vulture by fullback C.J. Ham because I will not have much if any. 

• Tier 1: Aaron Jones
• Good Punt: Ty Chandler
• Fades: Cam Akers, C.J. Ham

Wide Receiver

• The Rams allow 31.2 fantasy points per game, combined with wide receivers (shockingly low)
• They are ranked 24^th in DVOA against the pass
• They have given up 7 passing TDs to the position (10 total including TE)
• They are targeted through the air at the third-lowest rate in the league

You lock Justin Jefferson in every lineup. 

For the next best option at WR for the Vikings we have to rely on target share because the corner for the Rams are giving up almost identical numbers as far as YPCC goes. Jordan Addison has a 16.8% target share compared to Jalen Nailor’s 11.6% target share. Addison also leads in YPRR and Air Yards. I guess he is my next choice but this isn’t a “hard take”. Either one is fine to stack with Sam Darnold. I know that isn’t what you want to hear but that is the truth. If you can not make up your mind on which one to play, make a second lineup and swap the receivers. 

• Tier 1: Justin Jefferson
• Tier 2: Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor

Punts: Brandon Powell, and Trent Sherfield (both under 10% snap rate last week and were only involved when Jordan Addison was injured)

Tight End

• The Rams allow the second most fantasy points to tight ends in the NFL (16.3 fantasy points per game)
• They have allowed 33 receptions on 39 targets
• They have given up 3 touchdowns

We will have to wait on the T.J. Hockenson news, as I am writing this Wednesday night. I don’t see why they would bring him back, against the Rams, unless he was a full go. If he is active I will address him in Discord but I will be writing up this position as if he is out. 

Johnny Mundt plays the most (68%) last week and gets steady targets for a low-caliber tight end. He is only $2,800 and fine to play. Josh Oliver would be the only other active TE (if Hockenson is out). He played 58% last week. That is a lot for a $1,800 player. He has three targets in the past three games. It is encouraging playing time, but he is still a deep punt. 

• Tier 1: Johnny Mundt
• Punt: Josh Oliver

Los Angeles Rams

Running Back

• The Vikings are ranked 1^st in DVOA against the run
• Allow 20.6 fantasy points per game
• Allow 3 rushing touchdowns
• Allow the 4^th fewest yards on the ground

The Vikings are elite at stopping the run. Kyren Williams is the clear lead back and has been carrying this team on his back with the loss of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Well, Kupp is expected back and if you look at the first two games of the season, where Kupp played (50% of snaps in the second game he got hurt), the DraftKings score coupled with him being the second-highest priced player on the slate, leans more towards going light on Williams. Also, the Vikings are the best run defense in the league. It just doesn’t add up for Williams. He can certainly break any slate, but there isn’t a world where I play him over Justin Jefferson. 

Blake Corum is the backup but hasn’t been used in the pass-catching role. He is cheap but he is largely off my radar aside from a punt where I have the salary left. Ronnie Rivers hasn’t played the last two games as he has clearly been passed by Corum on the depth chart. 

• Tier 2: Kyren Williams
• Punt: Blake Corum 

Wide Receiver

• The Vikings are ranked 1^st in DVOA against the pass
• They somehow still allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers in the NFL (46.5)
• They have allowed 7 passing touchdowns 
• They have given up the second most receptions (likely due to the game script)

Update: Puka Nacua could play. We are just going to have to wait and see. If there are no restrictions on his playing time you force on of him or Kupp in every lineup. 

It seems Cooper Kupp is back and he will obviously get all the targets he can handle. He will take back his Rams slot role and lead all Rams receivers in all categories. He is a fantastic play. It gets weird after him. As of now, there are 4 total active Rams receivers on the team. Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson should get the most playing time, but Tutu Atwell will still be involved. 

Robinson and Johnson, as do the Vikings’ corners, both flip from the right to the left. I don’t know who will see Byron Murphy the most due to how both teams operate their different schemes, but that is who we want to target. It is usually easy to distinguish, but that isn’t the case this Thursday. 

I am aware that Byron Murphy has covered Kupp well in the slot in past seasons, but I don’t think we will see much of that tonight. Josh Metellus has been covering the slot on 85% of routes.  

• Tier 1: Cooper Kupp
• Tier 2: Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson
• Tier 3: Tutu Atwell

Tight End

• The Vikings allow 11.7 fantasy points per game to TE (middle of the league)
• They have given up 2 touchdowns to the position.

Colby Parkinson is the third most reliable pass catcher on the team at this point. His salary of $4,400 is doable, and if the Rams get in the red zone, he or Cooper Kupp should get the first look. He is palatable on showdown lineups, and you could do worse on your main. If I made three hand-built teams, he would be on at least one. 

Hunter Long and Davis Allen are purely punts. With Kupp back and think Davis Allen’s playing time will be dialed way back. Long has three catches in the past two games and Allen has none (2 targets) on the season. Long will be reserved for very deep punts and I can’t imagine I have more than 2% if any. 

• Tier 1: Colby Parkinson
• Punts: Hunts Long, Davis Allen (more likely to fade)

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

• FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones 
• FanDuel MVP Tier 2:  Sam Darnold, Cooper Kupp
• FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Kyren Williams, Matt Stafford (moves up if Puka plays), Puka

• DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Justin Jefferson
• DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Cooper Kupp, Aaron Jones, Puke Nacua 
• DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Sam Darnold, Matt Stafford (better if Puke plays)

• Punts: I will probably punt with Addison, Nailor, Robinson, and Johnson if I need more lineups
• Best Value: Demarcus Robinson (if Puka is out), Johnny Mundt – if Hockeson is out

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Puka Nacua is min priced on FanDuel. You lock him if he plays.

• Justin Jefferson
• Aaron Jones
• Sam Darnold
• Cooper Kupp
• Matt Stafford (better if Puka plays)
• Puka Nacua (if active)
• Kyren Williams
• Joshua Karty
• Jordan Addison
• Will Reichard
• Colby Parkinson
• Jalen Nailor
• Demarcus Robinson
• Tyler Johnson
• Tutu Atwell (Johnson and Atwell get demoted if Puka plays)
• Johnny Mundt (gets demoted a tier if Hockenson plays)
• Vikings D

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Ty Chandler 
• Blake Corum
• Hunter Long
• Rams D
• Josh Oliver (gets demoted if Hockenson plays)
• Cam Akers

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Xaiver Smith – is unplayable if Puka plays
• Davis Allen
• CJ Ham

Best Rules for the slate:

• Lock in Justin Jefferson
• Lock Puka Nacua on FanDuel (he is min priced)
• Lock in Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua on DraftKings (if Puka plays, if he doesn’t then you don’t “have to lock Kupp”
• I will be heavy on Aaron Jones
• Lock in a QB, preference is Stafford if Puka plays. I will have a relatively even amount of both. – There will be few teams on 150 of my teams that don’t have a QB
• Lock in a kicker, as always, on DraftKings only. 
• I will be overweight on the Viking’s D, espically if Puka is out
• Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense (unless it is Cooper Kupp)
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player
  • Someone has to move the ball down the field
• Don’t play more than 1 TE per team, per lineup
• Don’t play more than 1 Rams RB, if any