Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Houston Texans at New York Jets

Week 9 of the NFL season starts with the Houston Texans traveling to the Big Apple to take on the New York Jets. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to
win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check
out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s
essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can
impact each game’s approach.

Link To Strategy Article: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:
I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end sections cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Houston Texans

Running Back

• The Jets are 23^rd in DVOA against the rush
• They give up 21.5 fantasy points to RBs per game
• They have allowed 5 rushing, and 0 receiving TDs to the position

Dameon Pierce is ruled out. 

Joe Mixon is the top priority on the slate.

Dare Ogunbowale is interesting large-field tournaments. I can see them giving him more rushing and receiving attempts here if Stroud fails to find chemistry with his receivers in a tough matchup. When Joe Mixon was out in Week 5, he was targeted seven times. I know Mixon is in, but the receiving game is decimated. A few targets for Ogunbowale could be enough. He isn’t a high-confidence play, but someone I will have a little exposure to. Side note, he isn’t better than the cheap Texans receivers.

• Tier 1: Joe Mixon 
• Tier 2: Dare Ogunbowale
• Punt: JJ Taylor 

Wide Receiver

• The Jets are 18^th in DVOA against the pass
• They give up the least number of fantasy points per game to the position
• They have allowed 5 receiving TDs

Tank Dell is now the alpha receiver for CJ Stroud. The Jets secondary is solid but we have to project Dell for the highest volume. He is not expected to be shadowed by Sauce Gardner as he tends to stay on the left side of the field (72% of routes). Dell should run an even number of routes on each side of the perimeter while sliding into the slot for about 22-25% of his routes. Xaiver Hutchenson is going to play the entire game and should split slot routes with Robert Woods. Woods got in for 34% of snaps last game, but will surely see a large spike With Stefon Diggs ruled out. Both of these receivers are clear value, on DraftKings. On FanDuel Hutchenson has been priced up. 

I have always been a John Metchie fan. His career was set back due to an unfortunate illness in his rookie season. I would love nothing more than to see him break out. He was drafted to be a WR1 but hasn’t ever got the opportunity. He is coming off of 4 targets last week which is encouraging. He is just as good of a play as Robert Woods. He played 28% of snaps last week compared to Woods’s 34%. 

• Tier 1: Tank Dell
• Tier 2: Xaiver Hutchinson (much cheaper on DK), Robert Woods, John Metchie
• Punt: Steven Sims

Tight End

• The Jets allow 9.5 fantasy points to the position 
• They have given up only one passing TD

Dalton Shultz has had a lackluster season, but with the injuries on the Texans surely he should be able to put together a nice game tonight. Cade Stover (48% of snaps) and Teagan Quitoriano (34% of snaps) play a decent number of snaps. Stover is active in the passing game while Quitoriano is primarily a blocker.  

• Tier 1: Dalton Shultz
• Punt: Cade Stover
• Fade: Teagan Quitoriano

New York Jets

Running Back

• The Texans are ranked 4^th in DVOA against the rush
• They give up 19 fantasy points per game to the position (5^th least)
• They have allowed 4 rushing, and 2 receiving TDs

• Tier 1: Breece Hall
• Tier 2: Braelon Allen 

Breece Hall should be in high consideration for a main lineup. He is behind Joe Mixon, but still towards the top of the list. The matchup isn’t great, but there aren’t any “great” matchups tonight. We have to rely on Hall’s projected volume in the run-and-pass game. I can certainly see putting both Hall and Mixon on the same lineup, but that might come at the expense of a quarterback. We will have to see how builds work themselves out. 

Braelon Allen was more involved last week, yet I am not sure that is something we can expect every week. I would hate to be overweight to him, coming off a 12-touch game, and he goes back out there and gets 2 attempts. Any way you look at it with Allen he would still have to score to be worthy of making my lineup, and I don’t have high confidence in that. 

Wide Receiver

• The Texans are 3rd in DVOA against the pass
• They allow 34 fantasy points per game to the position
• They have given up 11 receiving TDs

You jam in Garrett Wilson or Davante Adams in every lineup. It is as easy as that. Aaron Rodgers is incredibly easy to predict and he will only be throwing to “his guys”.

Here are some Week 8 stats:

• Mike Williams: 58% of snaps, 0 targets
• Xaiver Gipson: 10% of snaps, 1 target
• Irvin Charles: 10% of snaps, 0 targets 
• Malachi Corley: 10% of snaps, 0 targets

I am not playing more than 1 of any of these guys on the same team. 

• Tier 1: Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
• Tier 2: Mike Williams
• Viable Punts: Xaiver Gipson, Irvin Charles
• Fade: Malachi Corley

Tight End

• The Texans allow the least number of fantasy points to the position (6.9 per game)
• They have allowed 3 TDs 
• They have allowed 21 receptions on 41 targets

Although the Texans have been solid against the position, it is still a showdown and Aaron Rodgers will throw it to Tyler Conklin. He has strung together two games in a row with a TD and is firmly in play as Rodgers 4^th option behind Wilson, Adams, and Hall. The price on DK is higher than I like, but if he finds the endzone it doesn’t matter. 

Jeremy Ruckert is only $1,000 and should be involved enough to exceed value here. He is one of the better-value guys on the slate. 

• Tier 1: Tyler Conklin
• Tier 2: Jeremey Ruckert
• Fade: Anthony Firkser

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

• FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Joe Mixon, Breece Hall  – heavy focus Tier 1
• FanDuel MVP Tier 2:  Aaron Rodgers, CJ Stroud
• FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Tank Dell 

• DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Joe Mixon, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Tank Dell
• DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Breece Hall
• DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Aaron Rodgers, CJ Stroud 
• DraftKings CPT Punts: Hutchinson, Metchie, Woods

Best Value: Houston receivers, Jeremy Ruckert, Dare Ogunbowale

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Joe Mixon
• Breece Hal
• Tank Dell
• Davante Adams
• Garrett Wilson
• CJ Stroud
• Aaron Rodgers
• Dalton Shultz
• Xaiver Hutchinson
• Kai’imi Fairbairn 
• Tyler Conklin
• Spencer Shrader or Riley Patterson (whoever kicks for Texans, still undecided)
• Robert Woods
• John Metchie
• Braelon Allen
• Mike Williams
• Jeremy Ruckert
• Xaiver Gipson
• Jets D
• Texans D

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Cade Stover
• Irvin Charles
• Malachi Corley
• Steven Sims

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• JJ Taylor
• Teagan Quitoriano

Best Rules for the slate:

• Lock in at least one Joe Mixon or Breece Hall, preference is Mixon 
• Lock in one of Adams or Wilson 
• Lock at least one Texans pass catcher not named Joe Mixon (makes more sense on DraftKings due to salaries)
• I will play a QB on most of my lineups
  • CJ Stroud makes the most sense to pair with 2 pass catchers, but I will also have some Rodgers in my 150
• Don’t play more than 1 Jets receiver that isn’t named Adams or Wilson
• Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense 
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player 
  • Someone has to move the ball down the field
  • I probably don’t force a kicker in like I usually do tonight
• Don’t play more than 1 TE per team, per lineup
• Don’t play more than 1 Jets RB. Mixon with Ogunbowale is fine