Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 16 of the NFL season starts with the Broncos traveling to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link To Strategy Article: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:
I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end sections cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Denver Broncos 

Running Back

• The Chargers allow 20.6 fantasy points per game to the RB (8^th least)
• They have given up three rushing TDs and two receiving TDs to the position

RB2 Jaleel McLaughlin has been ruled out. 

Javonte Williams will continue to be the lead back for the Broncos, yet he has been ineffective of late. The last time he played this Chargers team, he got six carries for 23 rushing yards while gaining an additional 13 yards through the air. The Chargers are good against the RB, and Williams is no stud. He is not a priority in a main lineup. 

I would think that Audric Estime benefits the most from McLaughlin being ruled out, but this doesn’t mean we need to run to him in our lineups. He is priced as an RB2 on DraftKings, so there is no screaming value. Last week, he saw 21% of snaps, and I would expect a boost up in playing to account for the vacated McLaughlin snaps. If he gets hot, he could earn more time. He is a MME play, not a main lineup guy for me. 

• Tier 2: Javonte Williams
• Tier 3: Audric Estime

Punt: Michael Burton (FB) – you can just eliminate him from consideration, but I tend to at least mention anybody that would see the field on a showdown slate.

Wide Receiver

• The Chargers allow 33.8 fantasy points per game to the position
• They have allowed far more receiving TDs to WRs this season (16) compared to the Broncos (7)

I will likely be forcing at least one Broncos receiver in all of my lineups.

It is pretty easy to rank the Broncos today. Courtland Sutton is the clear top guy. He leads the team in target %, YPRR, and Air yards. He also has the best, by a small margin, the primary matchup for the team on paper. This does not mean it is a “great” spot, it means it is the best spot out of the Broncos receivers. 

After a disappointing performance last week, Devaughn Vele comes in as the second-best option. He runs out of the slot 68% of the time and is on the field the second most (60%) out of all of the Broncos receivers. 

Troy Franklin is interesting at $3,000. He was on the field 46% of the time last week. He gets a handful of targets each week; it will just be up to him to break a long one or get an endzone target. His matchup on paper is the worst of the three receivers that play the most, but this is by a paper-thin margin. His salary, compared to Sutton and Vele, put him in play and consideration for a main lineup. 

Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Marvin Mims will both see the field for around a quarter of the snaps. Mims has looked spry the past month or so and will return punts. He is a quality “punt,” if we can even call him that. 

• Tier 1: Courtland Sutton
• Tier 2: Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims
• Punts: Lil’Jordan Humphrey

Tight End

• The Chargers give up 10.4 fantasy points per game to the TE
• They have allowed only 1 receiving TD to the position

There really is no TE1 in Denver. All three got on the field last week for a relatively even split. Adam Trautman saw 43% of snaps, Nate Adkins saw 46% of snaps, and Lucas Krull saw 38% of snaps. Trautman scored, but that had nothing to do with volume. The Chargers have been excellent against the position – yet all three Bronco tight ends are cheap. I have no lean on which one I prefer due to them all essentially being the same player with similar cheap price tags on DraftKings. 

On a main lineup, I likely just fade them all. In MME lineups, you certainly are not playing more than one per lineup. 

They are all punts

Los Angeles Chargers 

Running Back

• The Broncos allow 22.3 fantasy points per game to the RB
• They have allowed five rushing and five receiving TDs to the position 

There is no one in the Chargers RB room that stands out. Gus Edwards is dust, and Kimani Vidal hasn’t shown much reason to trust him yet. That could just be that he has not been given a real opportunity yet, as opposed to us knowing what Edwards is at this point in his career. 

Last week, Vidal out-snapped Edwards (67% to 27%), but if you were just game log watching, you wouldn’t realize that due to both having a low volume of carries. If forced to choose one, I’ll take Vidal, but I certainly don’t love it. It is more of betting on the unknown. 

Hassan Haskins hardly played (2%) and has not touched the ball since Week 13. 

• Tier 2: Kimani Vidal, Gus Edwards
• Punt: Hassan Haskins

Wide Receiver

• The Broncos allow 31.1 fantasy points per game to the receiver (9^th least)
• They have given up just seven receiving TDs on the season

Pat Surtain is expected to play tonight. He will shadow Quentin Johnston for the majority of his routes. If you were thinking it would be Ladd McConkey, you are wrong. Surtain seldom moves to the slot. That is where McConkey runs the most of his routes (73%). He is the clear top option at WR for the Chargers. QJ is going to have a difficult night. 

Joshua Palmer is the next guy to look at. It doesn’t look too promising for him, either. Although he will avoid Surtain for more routes than Johnston, he still draws a tough matchup against Kris Abrams-Draine. KAD is allowing only 0.49 YPRR as opposed to Surtain’s 0.45. For those interested in what the slot allows (where Ladd will be), it is 1.24 YPRR. 

D.J. Chark and Derius Davis are both interchangeable punts. Their usage has fluctuated weekly, but both should be on the field. If we judge by who played more last week (which I’m not sure is the best move), Chark got 17% of snaps, while Davis got 4%. The week prior Davis outsnapped Chark. 

• Tier 1: Ladd McConkey
• Tier 3: QJ, Joshua Palmer
• Punts: DJ Chark, Derius Davis

Tight End

• The Broncos give up 11.9 fantasy points per game to the TE
• They have allowed five receiving TDs

Stone Smartt would be the clear TE1 here, but we do have Hayden Hurst being activated. When healthy, Hurst was the primary TE, but with how reliable (50 rec yards the past two games) Smartt has been playing, there is no reason to demote him. That said, the salaries are vastly different. 

Smartt is now priced at $4,200, while Hurst is down to $1,600 on DraftKings. This makes Hurst one of, if not the best, values on the slate (given we do not get word he is limited or ruled out. The tight-end split is going to be unknown, but one outcome is that Hurst plays just as much or more than Smartt. 

Tucker Fisk should return to being the TE3. 

• Tier 1: Hayden Hurst (due to price on DK), Stone Smartt
• Punt: Tucker Fisk

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel, like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

• FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Bo Nix, Justin Herbert 
• FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Ladd McConkey Courtland Sutton 
• FanDuel MVP Tier 3: Javonte Williams  – but probably get almost none. 

I prefer using the receivers on DraftKings.  

• DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Ladd McConkey, Courtland Sutton
• DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Bo Nix, Justin Herbert 
• DraftKings CPT Tier 3: everyone else is a punt

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Ladd McConkey
• Courtland Sutton
• Bo Nix
• Justin Herbert
• Wil Lutz
• Cameron Dicker
• Javonte Williams
• Devaughn Vele
• Hayden Hurst (if no snap limit – value play)
• Stone Smartt
• Kimani Vidal
• Gus Edwards
• Troy Franklin
• Marvin Mims
• Joshua Palmer
• Quentin Johnston 
• Audric Estime
• Nate Adkins/Adam Trautman/Lucas Krull (they are all the same guy)
• Broncos D (should probably rank higher, but it is a defense, you get it)
• Charger D (same)

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Lil’Jordan Humphrey
• Tucker Fisk
• DJ Chark
• Derius Davis
• Hassan Haskins

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Michael Burton

Best Rules for the slate:

• Play at least one Sutton or McConkey
• Play at least one Broncos pass catcher (especially if you don’t have Sutton)
• Play at least one kicker (I love them tonight)
• Play at least one QB: I think the matchup is better for Nix, but let your build determine who you land on.
• Don’t play more than 1 QJ or Palmer.
• Don’t play more than 1 RB per team per lineup (if you need to shrink your player pool, I don’t hate just playing at most 1 RB on either team per lineup)
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player (I am not forcing a kicker)
  • Someone has to move the ball down the field
• Don’t play more than 1 TE per team per lineup 
• Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guy