Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Week 4 of the NFL season starts with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to the Big Apple to take on the New York Giants. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Update: The weather has gotten better and appears to be a non factor.

Note on Quarterbacks:

I tend not to write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Dallas Cowboys

Running Back

• The Giants allow 22.5 fantasy points per game against running back
• They are ranked 15^th in DVOA against the run

The Cowboys running back room is a problem. Neither Rico Dowdle nor Ezekiel Elliot gets high-volume touches. The Giants have also been decent enough against the run that you do not have to jam one of these two, or Deuce Vaughn into a lineup. Dowdle had been the better fantasy back this season. He gets more YPC and is more involved in the passing game. If I am choosing a guy to stack yards it is Dowdle. If I am choosing a guy to get the goal line touch in the red zone it is Zeke. 

The one thing that may lend to more carries for both the Cowboys and the Giants is it is expected to rain the entire game, with it picking up more in the second half. This would effectively speed up the clock and perhaps put the ball in Dowdle or Zeke’s chest a couple more times. I am not “high” on either, but think they are fine to fill out lineups, especially if you are fading the Cowboys passing attack (which I am not). 

Wide Receiver

• The Giants allow 32.6 DraftKings Points per game to wide receivers
• They are ranked 16^th in DVOA against the pass
• They are ranked 19^th in DVOA against the WR1

CeeDee Lamb is a lock on all sites, whether it is at the CPT, MVP, or flex. He runs the majority (58%) of his routes out of the slot while carrying a 28% target share. The Giants’ starting slot corner is out tonight, so they will be trying to find the right matchup for Lamb. Spoiler alert, there isn’t one. Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert both split time rather evenly on the left and right side, while dipping into the slot around 35% each. Their primary matchups are identical so and their salaries are within $1,000 of each other. Cooks has a slightly higher target share (14.8%) but Tolbert is the one that you would have needed on the past two showdown slates. There isn’t much that separates the two so my preferring one over the other would be disingenuous. Both are in favorable matchups, so my answer is to make your favorite lineup with one, then duplicate the lineup and play the other guy.

KaVontae Turpin was on the field for 23% of the snaps last week. He scored in Week 3 causing his price to shoot up to $4,000 compared to $2,800 in Week 3 and $600 in Week 1. The salary is getting too high, yet the Giants are terrible. He isn’t the worst punt, but also not the best. Turpin has only one more target on the season than Jalen Brooks (16% of snaps in Week 3).

Tight End

The Giants have been decent in defending the tight end. They have allowed 13 receptions for 138 yards and no touchdowns (8.9 fantasy points per game). Jake Ferguson leads the team in route participation and snaps, at the position. He is coming off a game where he out-targeted CeeDee Lamb and put up a solid fantasy day with 15.5 points. I don’t think he draws 11 targets again, and his price of $7,000 doesn’t scream value at all. He is going to need to find the endzone to pay off, which is certainly possible. He is a good play, but not a priority over Lamb. 

Luke Schoonmaker was on the field for 31% of snaps last week. He has 8 targets in the past two games and is only $1,000. He should be in your player pool as a salary saver. 

New York Giants

Running Back

• The Cowboys allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (38.5)
• They have allowed a league-high TDs to backs (6 rushing + 1 receiving)
• They are ranked 32^nd in DVOA against the run

Well, it is going to be hard to argue there is a better spot to attack in this game than the Dallas run defense. It feels gross writing Devin Singletary is a priority, but here we are. He got stymied in Week 1 but a tough Vikings defense, but since then, he has been on the fantasy map breaking 15 DraftKings points in the past two games. That is plenty to be on a Showdown winner. 

Tyrone Tracy got 31% of snaps last week, which included 5 attempts. If something were to happen to Singletary he would be the immediate benefactor. There shouldn’t be that much incentive to get him heavily involved tonight on a nationally televised game against their rivals without some sort of injury or if the rain gets so bad this just turns into a run fest. 

Wide Receiver

• The Cowboys allow 20.5 DraftKings points per game to the position
• They are ranked 12^th in DVOA against the pass
• They are ranked 8^th against WR1, 23^rd against WR2 and 1^st against WR3

Malik Nabers should draw shadow coverage from Trevon Diggs. Diggs allows an extremely low 0.37 YPRC. Nabers should still get a decent number of targets, but on paper, this isn’t the matchup for him to have a monster game. That being said he is fantastic and might be one of those uncoverable receivers. If I have to fade him or Lamb, it’s not a question, I would much rather have Lamb. 

Wan’Dale Robinson has been heavily targeted in the first 3 games with a 24.5% target share. He runs 80% of his routes out of the slot. His DraftKings price is crazy low ($4,800), giving him a priority flex appeal.

Darius Slayton is questionable. If he is out Jalin Hyatt should slide into a much larger role and only costs $600. He would immediately turn into the best value on the slate. If Slaton is in, expect a limited role from Hyatt (14% of snap in Week 3). If Slayton is ruled out, Bryce Ford-Wheaton or Ihmir Smith-Marsette would also run a few routes. 

Tight End

The Cowboys have allowed only 10 receptions through the first three weeks, for 103 yards and no touchdowns. The Giant’s top tight end is Theo Johnson (81% of snaps in Week 3). I can see more throws coming his way if 1) Malik Nabers is having a tough time with Diggs, 2) Darius Slayton is out, and 3) the rain becomes a concern for downfield throws. He is only $2,400 and I am happy to get him in plenty of lineups, including my main if I need the salary. Daniel Bellinger played 36% of snaps in Week 3 while receiving 1 target. With his price being so close the Johnson, there is no reason to choose him over the starter. Chris Manhertz is a blocker and you can exclude him from your builds. 

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

There are more CPTs tonight than I traditionally consider, but this is how I am playing it in MME, so I am going for full transparency.

Best Flex Punts (FD and DK): Theo Johnson, Jalin Hyatt if Darius Slayton is ruled out

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• CeeDee Lamb
• Dak Prescott
• Devin Singletary
• Wan’Dale Robinson
• Malik Nabers
• Daniel Jones
• Brandon Aubrey
• Jake Ferguson
• Jalen Tolbert
• Brandin Cooks
• Greg Joseph
• Ezekiel Elliot
• Rico Dowdle
• Theo Johnson
• Cowboys D
• Darius Slayton/Jalin Hyatt if he is out
• Giants D

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• KaVontae Turpin
• Luke Schoonmaker
• Daniel Bellinger

Punts (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Tyrone Tracy
• Bryce Ford-Wheaton
• Deuce Vaughn
• Jalen Brooks
• Ihmire Smith-Marsette
• Brevyn Spain-Ford

Best Rules for the slate:

Read the “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article attached at the top of this article where all the rule theories are listed. Here are some specific ones for this slate:

• Lock Lamb
• Lock Dak
  • Pair with two Cowboys if in CPT or MVP
• Play at least 1, Devin Singletary, Wan’Dale Robinson, or Malik Nabers
  • Robinson is the best mid-range play on the slate
• Limit Giants WR to 2 max
• Play a QB in every lineup
• Play at least one: Jones, Singletary, Joseph, Cowboys D – one likely has two hit value (DraftKings Rule)
• Dont play more than 1 DAL RB, per lineup
• Don’t play more than 1 defense
• Dont play more than 1 kicker
• Don’t play a kicker against your defense
• Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player, someone has to move the ball down the field