Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Week 10 of the NFL season starts with the Cincinnati Bengals traveling to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link To Strategy Article: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:
I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end sections cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

Cincinnati Bengals 

Running Back

• The Ravens allow 20 fantasy points to running backs per game
• They have allowed 4 rushing TDs and 3 receiving TDs to the position 

Zack Moss is out. Chase Brown is the RB1. He has been great for us lately, and his salary reflects that. The matchup for him is not fantastic, and he is a lower priority than Jackson, Henry, Chase, and Burrow. This isn’t the Las Vegas Raiders he is taking on here, but perhaps the Bengals lean into the run again given the issues at wide receiver. Get him where you can, but I am not forcing him in my main.  

Khalil Herbert has joined the team and should take on RB2 responsibilities. If that looks anything like what Moss was getting he should get around 5 carries and maybe a little pass work. The price on him is nice, but he is truly a gamble as he has only been on the team for a few days. Trayveon Williams should back him up. 

• Tier 2: Chase Brown (relative to salary and build)
• Tier 3: Khalil Herbert (overpriced on FanDuel, can fade)

Wide Receiver

• The Ravens allow the second most fantasy points to wide receivers (44.9 per game)
• They have allowed the second-most receiving TDs (13)

Ja’Marr Chase is a priority. That said, it is going to be pretty difficult to get Lamar Jackson (priority) and Derrick Henry (priority) all in the same lineup. With Tee Higgins expected out, he will once again get double-digit targets, but with the high price tag will need to find the endzone. Expect the Ravens to do whatever they can to stop him, and make the other Bengals receivers beat them. Perhaps the Ravens limit him, but it is extremely difficult to fade the elite wideout who will 100% get the most targets in the game. 

Andrei Iosivas has the potential to be the next best option, however, it all depends on what Jermaine Burton’s role is. If Burton outsnaps Trenton Irwin that will put Iosivas in the slot the most (out of the receivers), which will be tough against Marlon Humphry. If Trenton Irwin outsnaps Burton, then he will see slightly more slot routes than Iosivas. We also need to consider that Mike Gesicki will see some time on the slot. The one thing I am certain of is that Iosivas will be on the field more than them both Irwin and Burton, so that means he is the next best option.  

Both Burton and Irwin are underpriced for their potential role, on a showdown slate, against a team that gives up as much production to wide receivers as the Ravens do.  

There will likely just be four receivers for the Bengals who see the field/are active. 

• Tier 1: Ja’Marr Chase
• Tier 2: Andrei Iosivas
• Tier 3: Jermaine Burton, Trenton Irwin

Tight End

• The Ravens have allowed 1 receiving TD to the position 
• They give up 13.5 fantasy points per game 

This position is tricky. If this game is like the last one then the Bengals will run out 4 tight ends, to help stabilize what they are lacking at the receiver position. 

Mike Gesicki had the game of his career in Week 9 and comes in at a modest $6,600 on DraftKings. I will point out that some of that production came on a broken coverage play. Interestingly, he was on the for only 36% of snaps, which is half of the snaps Drew Sample got. Sample played 70% of snaps and caught all four passes that came his way. He has a $2,600 salary as is one of my favorite, sneaky plays on the slate. 

TE3 Tanner Hudson was targeted 3 times and Eric All was involved, yet he is injured for this game. Tanner McLachlan may be active to fill the TE4 spot, and he is about as deep as a punt can get on this slate. Him dropping a goose egg wouldn’t be surprising, nor would his mixing in for about 20% of snaps. 

• Tier 1: Mike Gesicki, Drew Sample
• Punt: Tanner Hudson
• Deep Punt: Tanner McLachlan/Cam Grandy

Baltimore Ravens

Running Back

• The Bengals allow 21.4 fantasy points to RBs
• They have given up 8 rushing TDs and no receiving to the position 

Every single game this season, aside from Week 1, Derrick Henry would have made the optimal line on a showdown slate. Do with that information what you will. I will be playing a ton of him. 

Justice Hill will be on the field for enough time to consider on a showdown slate. He gets most of his fantasy production in the passing game. There are arguably three weeks this season where you would have wanted him on a showdown slate. His price of $5,200 is just enough to make me go lighter on him where we have more upside value on the Bengals side of the ball. 

• Tier 1: Derrick Henry
• Tier 2: Justice Hill 

Wide Receiver

• The Bengals give up 31.9 fantasy points to wide receivers per game
• They have allowed just 6 receiving TDs this season

Zay Flowers has emerged as the clear top passing option. With how the Raven’s receivers move all over the field, no primary corner or safety matchup stands out. Sure, he runs out of the slot plenty, which is covered by the talented Mike Hilton, but he also moves to the perimeter. The Ravens get the guy they want to target, where they want him, and throw him the ball. 

Rashod Bateman is the clear WR2. The coverage scheme lines up nicely for him as well. His salary is significantly discounted compared to Flowers, so landing on him over Flowers shouldn’t make you sweat. 

Diontae Johnson was ramped up last week running six routes on 30% of snaps, while Nelson Agholor saw 33%. Expect Johnson to start to separate this week; however, I do not think he is going to be a target monster. He will get a few passes to make an impact. I am keeping him off my main lineup. 

Johnson is way overpriced on FanDuel.

Tylan Wallace (33% of snaps) and Devontez Walker (7%) of snaps will continue to lose time on the field. Wallace is worth a small sprinkle if you make 150 lineups, but I am also fine with a complete fade. He hasn’t been targeted since Week 5. 

• Tier 1: Zay Flowers
• Tier 2: Rashod Bateman
• Tier 3: Diontae Johnson, Nelson Agholor
• Fadeable: Tylan Wallace, Devontez Walker

Tight End

• The Bengals have allowed five receiving TDs to tight ends
• They give up 14.9 fantasy points per game to the position 

With Isaiah Likely ruled out, the path is clear for Mark Andrews and backup Charlie Kolar. With all the production the Bengals have allowed to the position, Andrews has the highest upside, while Kolar is in contention to at least exceed salary. 

Price per dollar Mark Andrews is probably the best play on the slate at only $4,200. 

• Tier 1: Mark Andrews
• Tier 2: Charlie Kolar 

FanDuel MVP Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

• FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry
• FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase
• FanDuel MVP Tier3: Chase Brown 

• DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase
• DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman
• DraftKings CPT Tier 3: Chase Brown 

Best Value: Does Mark Andrews count? Bengals receivers, Drew Sample, Charlie Kolar

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Lamar Jackson
• Derrick Henry
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Joe Burrow
• Mark Andrews
• Zay Flowers
• Chase Brown
• Rashod Bateman
• Mike Gesicki
• Justin Tucker
• Evan McPherson
• Andrei Iosivas
• Diontae Johnson (overpriced on FanDuel)
• Jermaine Burton
• Drew Sample
• Justice Hill
• Ravens D
• Charlie Kolar
• Trenton Irwin
• Nelson Agholor

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Khalil Herbert (overpriced on FanDuel)
• Tanner Hudson
• Bengals D (probably fade)

Fadeable Flex Punts: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Tylan Wallace
• Tanner McLachlan (if active)/Cam Grandy
• Trayveon Williams
• Devontez Walker

Best Rules for the slate:

• Lock in Lamar Jackson. I don’t fade him on showdown slates.
  • If you don’t have Chase, you play Henry. This would also mean you have Joe Burrow because I am playing at least one quarterback. Burrow should be paired with two pass catchers.
• Lock in one of Henry or Chase, both would be great if you can fit it
• Lock at least one Bengals pass catcher (RB, WR, TE)
• Play at least one tight end! Andrews, Gesicki, Sample, Kolar, Hudson (better rule on DraftKings)
• I will play a kicker on at least 80% of my lineups. The Bengals’ value won’t allow me to 100% lock it.  
• Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense 
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player
  • Someone has to move the ball down the field
• Don’t play more than 1 Bengals RB
• Don’t play more than 2, Jackson, Hill, Henry
• Don’t play more than 1, Agholor, Wallace, Walker (you can add Johnson here if you want)