Thursday Night Showdown Strategy: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Week 2 of the NFL season kicks off with the Buffalo Bills traveling south to take on the Miami Dolphins. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

I prefer a correlated lineup build that tells a compelling game story – a strategy that has proven to win more often than not. For a deeper dive into my general showdown rules, make sure to check out my “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I tend to not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Buffalo Bills

Running Back

Miami gave up 113 yards and a TD in Week 1 to the Jacksonville Jaguars and a talented Travis Etienne. James Cook (18 attempts + 3 receptions) is clearly the lead back for the Bills and Ty Johnson and Ray Davis are not even close to overtaking him for a meaningful role. Johnson and Davis combined for 5 total carries + 2 targets in Week 1, would have to break a huge run and score to be relevant.

I will note that Cook only had 3 red zone touches, and Johnson and Davis both got only one each, so the gap inside the 20-yard line isn’t as large as when the offense is simply pushing the ball down the field. That is what we have come to expect with Cook as Josh Allen tends to be the goal-line back more than not.

Cook is a solid option based on volume alone but with the other options on this slate, I can not make him a top 3 priority, although I do expect a fantasy-relevant day.

Wide Receiver

The Dolphins on paper, looked fine against receivers last week as Trevor Lawrence only completed 12 passes for 162 yards. If you watched the game, you would notice that Lawrence had wide-open receivers that he couldn’t connect with or simply did not throw to. The Dolphins are not that good in the secondary despite the names on the backs of the jerseys.

The best matchup for the Buffalo Bills is for Khalil Shakir. He ran out of the slot 79% of snaps in the first game of the season. That puts him on Kader Kohl who covered the slot for 72% of the routes last Sunday. He allowed 1.21 yards per route covered, compared to the corners on the outside who gave up about half as much. It should also be noted, that Skakir only played 53% of total snaps, but you can throw that out due to role and primary matchup.

Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins will swap from the right to the left side of the field. The right will be occupied by Jalen Ramsey while the left is occupied by Kendall Fuller. Both corners were solid from a YPRC perspective in Week 1. Jalen Ramsey did show some rust getting beat twice by rookie Brian Thomas, as he continues to get over a hamstring injury. If you are picking one of these two receivers the answer is Coleman, as he will be in the same matchup as Hollins but draw more targets. Taking the discount on Hollins should just be reserved for Milly Makers and punts.

Curtis Samuel, who is still dealing with turf toe, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling both played under 30% of the snaps. Samuel will at least get some slot snaps, making him the clear choice of the two. MVS is terrible so I am really not interested.

Tight End

In a small sample, the Dolphins limited Evan Engram to just one reception on four targets. Engram is good but the combo of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox is a far tougher task to defend. Both tight ends are viable based on salary and upside. Kincaid played 84% of snaps while Knox played 58%. Kincaid is priced appropriately while Knox is priced like Allen Lazard was on the last showdown slate where he caught two TDs at a $2,000 DK salary. The upside play is Kincaid, while Knox can be reserved as a salary saver who could do plenty to make an optimal showdown lineup.

Quintin Morris is the TE3 who will be used for blocking during the 10% of his snaps. In 2023 he had two receptions, and a TD in a game where Dalton Kincaid was sidelined.

Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid

Tier 2: Dawson Knox

Fade: Quintin Morris

Miami Dolphins

Running Back

The Buffalo Bills gave up 63 yards and a rushing touchdown in Week 1 to the Arizona Cardinals.

Raheem Mostert is out. De’Von Achane is looking likely to play however we will not know this for certain until he goes through his pregame routine. He would be a pretty tough fade if he plays knowing his upside plus getting possibly the most touches of his short career, in a primetime game. While the Bills were decent against the run in Week 1, that is a very small sample size. They were far worse in 2023 as a whole and did not make significant changes on the D line. They can still be run on. Given the injuries on the Dolphins at both RB and WR and the pressure Tua is likely to see, Achane and the healthy backs are in heavy consideration.

Jeff Wilson got 15% of snaps last week while Jaylen Wright was a healthy scratch. Jeff Wilson should still be ahead of Wright in this one, according to the depth chart. Wilson is no slouch and can handle a decent workload. The only way I see Wright out-touching him is if he is so electric on his first couple touches, Mike McDaniels has no choice but to see what the newcomer can do. I think it is unlikely, but not impossible.

If De’Von Achane is out, you are windmill-slamming at least one, if not two of these backs in every lineup you make.

This is also a good time to bring up Alec Ingold. The fullback should go largely overlooked on a showdown slate. He was on the field 41% of snaps last week. He is used primarily for blocking, however, he did get two carries and a target last week. He costs $200 on DraftKings.

Wide Receiver

It is a one-game slate and Tyreek Hill is arguably the best fantasy player in the league. You are going to want a ton of exposure. He is a borderline lock on all sites in all formats. There is only one build that doesn’t lead you to get to HIll and that is a lineup with Josh Allen, De’von Achane (given he plays), and Jaylen Waddle.

I do not care that Hill has failed to have a ceiling game against the Bills the past two times they have met up. Those are the outliers. Hill was one of the highest-owned receivers on a main slate last Sunday and now there will be people who fade him on a showdown. It just doesn’t make sense.

The Dolphins receiving room is incredibly short right now. All of their depth (4 receivers are out). Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Braxton Berrios, and Grant DuBose are the only receivers who are currently on the roster (as of Wednesday night). They will surely call someone up from the practice squad like they did with Robbie Chosen last week.

Braxton Berrios runs out of the slot, which is the softest spot on the Bills passing defense, however, he will not draw the volume of Jaylen Waddle. If you are an insane person and fade Tyreek you 100% have to play Waddle. Waddle also does draw a positive scheme in terms of how the Bills have played the Dolphins in years prior and how they played Arizona in Week 1. Via Fantasy Points Data, the Bills played 2-high 68.4% of the time in Week 1 (5th most), after rankings top-3 in two-high usage last year. Over the past two seasons, Jaylen Waddle has averaged 3.14 YPRR (3rd-best) and 0.67 FP/RR (4th-best) against two high”.

Former Packer, Grant DuBose was on the field for 18% of snaps last week. He got zero targets. He only costs $200 and one catch will pay that off. Given the Dolphins receiver’s injuries, it’s not the worst dart to throw.

Tight End

This position might be where the slate is won. The Dolphins are surprisingly deep here considering how many tight ends will see the field. In Week 1, all four of the Dolphins tight ends found their way onto the gridiron. The Bills gave up 11 targets to the tight ends of the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1.

Durham Smyth is the depth chart TE1. He was on the field 42% of the time in Week 1 while being targeted 3 times. Julian Hill outsnapped Smyth while playing 59% of snaps while catching his sole target. Jonnue Smith played 28% of snaps however ran the third most routes on the Dolphins. Tanner Conner played 4% of snaps and did nothing. He does have an interesting skill set as he can play TE, WR, and FB. That being said, if he gets a TD (which you would never consider if it isn’t a showdown slate), it would likely be right on the goal line and come without significant yardage.

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks –TNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value.  The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

DraftKings

There are more CPTs tonight than I traditionally consider, but this is how I am playing it in MME, so I am going for full transparency.

Best Flex Punts (FD and DK): Jonnu Smith, Dawson Knox, Braxton Berrios

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

• Josh Allen
• Tyreek Hill
• De’Von Achane (if he plays – If not just Jeff Wilson and/or Jaylen Wright become locks)
• James Cook
• Jaylen Waddle
• Tua Tagovailoa
• Khalil Shakir
• Dalton Kincaid
• Tyler Bass
• Keon Colman
• Jason Sanders
• Dawson Knox
• Jeff Wilson
• Durham Smyth
• Jonnu Smith
• Mack Hollins
• Braxton Berrios

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Bills D
• Miami D
• Jaylen Wright
• Grant DuBose
• Curtis Samuel
• Ray Davis
• Julian Hill
• Ty Johnson

Punts (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

• Alec Ingold
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling
• Tanner Conner

Best Rules for the slate:

Read the “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article attached at the top of this article where all the rule theories are listed. Here are some specific ones for this slate:

• Lock in Josh Allen in every lineup
  • You need to play him with at least one Bills pass catcher (RB, WR, TE)
• Lock in Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle in every lineup.
  • I will be very heavy on Tyreek Hill
• Lock in at least 2, Allen, Hill, Achane
  • If Achane is out – you play Jeff Wilson or Jaylen Wright. Given what we saw last week, Wilson should be first in line
• Don’t play more than 2 WRs, per team, per lineup.
• Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guy in a lineup.
• Don’t play more than 1 kicker
• Don’t play more than 1 defense, if any
• Don’t play a kicker against your defense
• Don’t play your MVP QB against the opposing defense
• Stack your kicker with at least one skill player, someone has to move the ball down the field