Richard Masana 
Oooooh baby. The Hot Shot is back for the first Thursday of the NHL regular season and there are ten games on this monster slate. We return with tons of new tools at our disposal including the NHL Projection Model which should be available daily by late morning/early afternoon post-morning skate.
Looking at all of the games on the slate and odds below, the Penguins at -365 and Golden Knights at -350 are far and away the largest favorites on the slate. They’re followed by Toronto at -190 in the only other 6.5 projected total game “all others six or less”. Of course, all three teams are in a great spot, but they should also be the most popular. Albeit, I wouldn’t worry about ownership as much as usual given the slate size, as it’s all relative.
10/13 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET
Ottawa Senators (-120) at Buffalo Sabres (+100) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Arizona Coyotes (+300) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-365) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Washington Capitals (+160) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-190) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
New Jersey Devils (-135) at Philadelphia Flyers (+115) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Florida Panthers (-130) at New York Islanders (+110) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Dallas Stars (+110) at Nashville Predators (-130) – 5.5 Projected Goal Total
New York Rangers (+120) at Minnesota Wild (-140) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Colorado Avalanche (+100) at Calgary Flames (-120) – 6 Projected Goal Total
Chicago Blackhawks (+290) at Vegas Golden Knights (-350) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total
Seattle Kraken (+155) at Los Angeles Kings (-180) – 6 Projected Goal Total
10/13 NHL Favorite Popular Line
Las Vegas One ” Jack Eichel ($6,300), Phil Kessel ($3,900), Reilly Smith ($4,200)“
Vegas definitely spreads the talent across their top three lines quite a bit. That said, I like the top line for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, we get an underpriced star in Jack Eichel who might finally be healthy. He looked superb while launching seven shots and scoring a goal Tuesday night in Los Angeles. Reilly Smith is the second most important piece with his dual role with Eichel on the Golden Knight’s top power-play unit. His $4,200 DraftKings price is another bargain all things considered. Finally, there is another cheap add-on in Kessel. This line gives you some solid upside as well as the salary flexibility to spend up elsewhere. As far as ownership, I think Eichel will individually be chalky, around 20-30% owned, but not the whole line.
10/13 NHL Favorite Contrarian Line
Ottawa One “Tim Stutzle ($5,100), Brady Tkachuk ($6,800), Drake Batherson ($6,000)”
I’m a huge fan of this Ottawa team and think it all starts for them in Buffalo. While the second line is temping, the top line features a trio of top power play skaters. Ownership wise they should come in 5% or less but have they similar upside to many more popular and expensive lines. Beginning of the season and all, we do not have tons of recent data but this young line should garner some impressive data and increased name recognition as the season progresses.
10/13 NHL Additional Lines to Consider
Pittsburgh One – Sidney Crosby “$7,000”, Jake Guentzel “$7,800”, Rikard Rakell “$5,300”
Pittsburgh Two – Evgeni Malkin “$6,400”, Bryan Rust “$6,500”, Jason Zucker “$3,600”
Colorado One – Nathan MacKinnon “$8,000”, Mikko Rantanen “$7,400”, Artturi Lehkonen “$5,000”
Top Individual Plays
Centers – Auston Matthews – Toronto “high-end”, Jack Eichel – Las Vegas “mid-range”, Anze Kopitar – Los Angeles “low-end”
Wings – Jack Guentzel – Pittsburgh “high-end”, Artturi Lehkonen – Colorado “mid-range”, Reilly Smith – Las Vegas “low-end”
Defenders – Roman Josi – Nashville “high-end”, Shea Theodore – Las Vegas “mid-range”, Alexander Edler – Los Angeles “low-end”
Goalies – Tristan Jarry – Pittsburgh “high-end”, Juuse Saros – Nashville “mid-range”, Anton Forsberg – Ottawa “low-end”
10/13 NHL Best Bet
Ottawa Senators Moneyline (-120) – DraftKings – 1 Unit – As mentioned earlier, I love this Ottawa team and while for DFS I’ll lean towards the first line, a bet gives us all of them. For just over even money for being on the road, this is a very fair price on a talented young Senators squad looking to begin their NHL ascent.
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